Bitcoin price today is getting help from July seasonality and improving U.S. demand, but CryptoQuant says the move still looks fragile.
With a recovery of around 11% off last week’s $57,700 low, Bitcoin has made another foray into $60,000 amid recovering demand and July bullish bias, but analysts at CryptoQuant, an on-chain analytics company, caution that the sentiment is still “extremely bearish.”
In a July 8 research report titled “Room to Run?,” CryptoQuant said Bitcoin rebounded about 11% from a fresh bear-market low to trade near $64,000, calling the $60,000 level a “critical support and pivot.”
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CryptoQuant pointed out total BTC▲$62,630.00 demand has recovered from its “fastest contraction since 2022,” after falling to almost -650,000 BTC in early June, with futures demand turning slightly positive and spot selling slowing to its weakest pace since mid-May.
And U.S. buyers also look less aggressive on the sell side since the Coinbase Premium Index, which tracks Bitcoin demand on Coinbase against other exchanges, recovered to -0.062 after deeply negative readings as Bitcoin bounced from the $57,000 area.
July Gives Bulls a Cleaner Setup
Seasonality is supporting the bullish sentiment. The historical monthly return data from CoinGlass indicates that July has been one of the best months for Bitcoin returns, with an average return of around 7.5% and a median return of around 8.2%.
July has even been profitable during bear-market years, with Bitcoin recording gains of around 21% and 17% in July 2018 and July 2022, according to CryptoQuant. Assuming the same moves off current levels at around $62,840, this means Bitcoin would trade between around $73,500 and $76,000, respectively.
But as Bitcoin rallies back toward $64,000, retail traders are turning extremely bullish again, a shift Santiment, a crypto analytics firm, says may be a warning signal.
The firm said traders have flipped several times over the past month, from bearish in early June to bullish in mid-June and now back to calling for higher prices. And Santiment argues those social swings can work as a counter-signal because retail traders often join the prevailing trade after the move has already happened.
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