Goldman’s revised central-bank demand model, which lifted its estimated purchases to roughly 60 tonnes a month through 2026 from an earlier 29-tonne pace, gives the bullish case a firmer structural anchor even after the bank trimmed its year-end target by $500 in June. The dispersion across Wall Street, from BofA’s more cautious $4,800 to JPMorgan’s $6,000 call, highlights how differently banks are weighing sovereign buying against rate and dollar headwinds. With June payrolls coming in well below expectations, gold bulls will be watching for confirmation that softer labour data feeds through to reduced conviction in continued Fed hawkishness, alongside any pickup in ETF inflows, which the World Gold Council says slowed to a trickle in May.
Goldman Sachs said gold’s four-month decline does not derail its long-term bull case, still targeting $4,900/oz by end-2026 on central bank buying, even as JPMorgan sees $6,000 and BofA trims its own forecast to $4,800.
Summary:
- Goldman Sachs said gold’s sharp four-month decline does not mean its long-term bull case is over, maintaining a $4,900/oz target by end-2026
- Goldman leans on central bank buying, particularly emerging-market reserve diversification, as the key structural driver behind its forecast
- The World Gold Council’s 2026 Central Bank Gold Reserves Survey found 89% of respondents expect global central bank gold reserves to rise over the next year, with a record 45% expecting their own institutions to add holdings
- Goldman revised its central bank demand model after finding official trade data understated sovereign buying, lifting its 12-month purchase forecast to roughly 60 tonnes a month from an earlier 29-tonne pace
- Other banks vary widely: JPMorgan sees gold reaching $6,000/oz by Q4 2026, UBS and Morgan Stanley both target $5,200/oz, while Bank of America trimmed its outlook to $4,800/oz on weaker investor demand and Fed headwinds
- June payrolls rose just 57,000, well below the 110,000 expected, while ETF assets fell 2% month over month in May to $604 billion, according to the World Gold Council
Goldman Sachs said gold’s sharp four-month decline does not signal the end of its bull case for the metal, maintaining a view that prices can still climb toward its $4,900 an ounce target by the end of 2026 even after trimming that forecast from $5,400 in June.
Gold had been one of Wall Street’s strongest momentum trades this year, driven by inflation fears, central bank buying and geopolitical risk, before a hawkish shift in Federal Reserve expectations, a stronger dollar and softer ETF demand knocked prices lower. Goldman’s argument is that the metal’s primary structural buyer has not gone away. The bank continues to lean on central bank demand, and emerging-market reserve diversification in particular, as the anchor for its forecast, pointing to the lingering influence of Russia’s frozen reserves on how some central banks think about gold holdings. That thesis found support in the World Gold Council’s 2026 Central Bank Gold Reserves Survey, which found 89% of respondents expect global central bank gold reserves to rise over the next 12 months, with a record 45% expecting their own institutions to add to holdings.
Goldman also revised its central bank demand model in May after finding that official trade data had understated sovereign buying, including UK figures that failed to fully capture London vault outflows since August 2025. That revision lifted the bank’s 12-month purchase forecast to nearly 50 tonnes a month from 29 tonnes previously, with Goldman now projecting sovereign buying at roughly 60 tonnes a month through 2026.
For the $4,900 target to be reached, Goldman said the market needs more than sovereign demand alone, with pressure from rates, the dollar and investor flows all needing to ease together. June payrolls data offered one supportive signal, rising just 57,000 against expectations of 110,000, with May’s figure also revised sharply lower, a slowdown that could weigh on confidence that the Fed needs to stay hawkish. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s recent comments that inflation risks had eased helped gold rebound, though he also reaffirmed the central bank’s 2% target and cautioned against assuming looser policy is imminent, meaning gold likely needs sustained cooler inflation and softer jobs data rather than a single data point to build a durable trend. A third factor is the return of private investment flows, with the World Gold Council describing global ETF inflows as having slowed to a trickle in May, when total ETF assets fell 2% month over month to $604 billion.
Other banks are less uniformly bullish. JPMorgan sees gold climbing to $6,000 an ounce by the fourth quarter of 2026, citing sustained central bank demand and macro uncertainty, while UBS targets $5,200 over the next 12 months on the view that gold can rebound as markets reassess Fed policy, dollar weakness and central bank buying. Morgan Stanley shares UBS’s $5,200 target for the second half of 2026 but says stronger ETF inflows are needed to make that level realistic. Bank of America has moved in the opposite direction, trimming its near-term outlook to $4,800 by the fourth quarter as investor demand weakened and Fed-related headwinds grew.
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