Happy Friday, traders. Welcome to our weekly market wrap, where we take a look back at these last five trading days with a focus on the market news, economic data, and headlines that had the most impact on gold prices and other key correlated assets—and may continue to in the future.
So, what kind of week has it been?
Here’s what you need to know:
- Gold ended the week just north of $4,100/oz after falling to a weekly low near $4,030/oz and testing the stability of the key $4,000 support level.
- The primary pressure came from the collapse of the US-Iran ceasefire, which sent crude oil prices sharply higher and revived concerns that energy costs could reignite global inflation.
- Rising inflation expectations lifted 10-year US Treasury yields to two-week highs and pushed the US Dollar Index above 101, while the June FOMC minutes added to speculation that the Fed’s next move could be a rate hike.
- Next week’s main catalysts are June inflation data on Tuesday and public testimony from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, with markets watching for any shift in the outlook for rates and gold’s hold above $4,000.
So, What Kind of a Week Has It Been?
Monday’s first trading session back from the long holiday weekend saw gold prices continuing to consolidate, with an eye toward potentially relaunching toward $4,500 after key macroeconomic winds shifted in gold’s favor late last week. Those winds could be summarized as a reduced likelihood of interest rate hikes from the Federal Reserve. By Tuesday and Wednesday, however, they had reversed course drastically and begun challenging the yellow metal’s stability above the key psychological and technical level of $4,000.
Oil Shock Reignites Inflation and Rate-Hike Fears
The primary downward pressure on gold began on Wednesday with the abrupt and kinetic dissolution of the tenuous ceasefire and outlined peace agreement between the US and Iran. Although the sudden resumption of war and the attendant destabilization of global trade would generally be a strong buy signal for gold around the world, this instability is concentrated not only in a critical region for global oil production but also around the waterway through which roughly 20% of all oil shipments must pass. As a result, the more immediate and aggressive market reaction was, as has played out multiple times since January, a 5-6% rise in crude oil prices.
Unlike most commodities, an acute surge in oil prices can be expected to drive a meaningful increase in global inflation directly. That means the chances of a rate hike by the US dollar’s central bank—a flat-out negative for gold as a non-yielding asset—are firmly back on the table. With oil prices spiking again, Wednesday saw gold’s low point of the week, with spot prices trading just above $4,030/oz before bouncing back to $4,100 the next day, as 10-year US Treasury yields rose to two-week highs and the US Dollar Index spiked above 101.
FOMC Minutes Point to a Less Predictable Warsh Fed
Wednesday also delivered the minutes from June’s FOMC meeting. While they were not as acute a shock to the monetary policy outlook or the gold market, the revelations in the released notes added fuel to projections that the Fed’s next move in 2026 could be a rate hike. FOMC participants were clearly split—or were in mid-June—over the idea of hiking rates sooner rather than later to tamp down the risk of prices rising again globally alongside energy costs.
Market analysts and economists also highlighted that newly installed Fed Chair Kevin Warsh did not contribute his projection for interest rate levels to the version of the “dot plot” released to the public last month, marking a break from his most recent predecessors. This is being read as a signal that concrete forward guidance may not be a feature of the Warsh Fed, which translates directly into an expectation of greater volatility around FOMC decisions and even public commentary from Warsh and other key members.
Looking Ahead
While gold prices made a decent recovery to end the week, trading just north of $4,100/oz going into Friday afternoon, next week presents a real challenge to stability amid renewed speculation that global yields may rise in response to the threat of inflation. The most volatile pivot point comes on Tuesday with the release of June inflation data. The market currently expects that the brief reprieve provided by the now-broken US-Iran ceasefire will not have had enough time to translate into cooler inflation. As a result, even a roughly unchanged core CPI reading may threaten gold’s positioning above $4,000.
Also next week, markets will hear public testimony from Fed Chair Warsh. Investors will expect him to reconcile last week’s comments that upside inflation risks have eased with both the more hawkish tone of the June FOMC meeting and this week’s renewed conflict around the Strait of Hormuz.
In the meantime, traders, I hope you can get out and safely enjoy your weekend for the next couple of days. After that, I’ll see you back here next week for another market recap.
Source: Original Article
