XRP traded at $1.13 on Tuesday, July 7, 2026,
about 9% above a June monthly close of $1.04 that broke three years of chart
structure. The month printed a 22% loss and the first monthly close below the
$1.26 support that had contained every dip since 2023. My monthly chart also
closed beneath the 50-month exponential moving average, a line price held
almost without interruption for more than three years.
This XRP
price prediction maps what a loss of $1.00 parity opens on the downside: staged
targets at $0.67, $0.47, and $0.29. The near-term drivers are Bitcoin ‘s floor
and a CLARITY Act vote that has slipped into late July.
Follow
me on X for real-time crypto market analysis: @ChmielDk
The June
candle is the most important XRP has printed in three years. Price closed the
month at $1.04, down 22%, and for the first time since 2023 it settled below
the $1.26 shelf that had held the token in check for months. That level is not
arbitrary. It aligns with the May 2018 lows and the second-half 2021
resistance, so its loss carries structural weight.
The same
candle closed below the 50-month exponential moving average, the line price had
tracked above almost without a break for more than three years. In more than 15
years reading these charts, 10 of them at FinanceMagnates.com and documented on
my analyst page, I have watched XRP defend the
$1.26 area repeatedly. This is the first monthly close beneath it.
How low can the XRP price go after the monthly break? Source: Tradingview.com
The last
line for the bulls is $1.00. My chart shows a decisive loss of parity opening a
staged decline toward historical structure below. The first stop is the $0.93
to $0.76 band, the 2023 to 2024 supply zone I flagged in my June analysis. Below it, three levels define the
bearish path.
A move of
roughly 35% from the breakdown zone tests $0.67, the 2018 resistance retested
in 2020 and defended through 2023 and 2024. A drop of around 55% reaches $0.47,
the extension of that same band near the 50-week moving average. The apogee of
the bearish case sits about 71% lower at $0.29, the level that marked the 2018
to 2019 lows and the bear-market floor at the turn of 2022 and 2023.
XRP/USDT on a daily chart. Source: Tradingview.com
On the
daily chart the same $1.26 resistance is visible, last tested in mid-June. The
50-day EMA now acts as dynamic resistance, tagged in early July and rejected on
the retest. XRP sits at $1.13, mid-range, boxed between $1.26 above and the
$1.01 to $1.03 late-June lows that guard $1.00 parity. My directional bias
stays bearish while price holds under $1.26, and it only flips on a monthly
close back above that shelf.
|
Level |
Type |
Notes |
|
$1.26 |
Resistance |
Multi-year |
|
$1.13 |
Spot |
July 7 price, mid-range |
|
50-day EMA |
Dynamic resistance |
Tagged early July, rejected |
|
$1.00 |
Support |
Psychological |
|
$0.93-$0.76 |
Support band |
2023-24 |
|
$0.67 |
Target (-35%) |
2018 resistance, defended 2023-24 |
|
$0.47 |
Target (-55%) |
Band |
|
$0.29 |
Target (-71%) |
2018-19 lows, 2022-23 bear floor |
Why Is XRP Going Down?
The June
decline was a broad-market event, not an XRP story. Bitcoin fell roughly 20% on
the month and slipped below $59,000, and Ethereum , Solana, and BNB dropped with
it. When the largest tokens fall together, the selling reflects liquidity
rather than any single asset.
Institutional
signaling added to the pressure. MicroStrategy confirmed the sale of about $216
million in Bitcoin, and the move is “likely to weigh on sentiment,”
said Paul Howard, Senior Director at Wincent. Howard noted that high-profile
institutional sales often trigger copycat de-risking, and that a decision to
monetize part of a position can read as a cautious signal for the next three to
four months. He added that much of the transaction was probably executed
over-the-counter to limit direct market impact.
Regulation
removed the one catalyst bulls were counting on. The CLARITY Act, which would classify XRP as a
commodity under US law, missed its early-July target after the Senate left for
recess. The floor vote now sits in late July or early August, per congressional
scheduling.
The
pressure on XRP comes from four converging factors:
- Broad crypto selloff: Bitcoin fell below $59,000 in
June, draining altcoin liquidity - Institutional signaling: MicroStrategy’s $216M Bitcoin
sale dented sentiment, per Wincent’s Howard - Stalled regulation: the CLARITY Act floor vote
slipped to late July, removing the bull catalyst - Macro dependence: Bitcoin’s floor and the Fed’s
rate path now move XRP more than any Ripple headline
How Low Can XRP Go? XRP
Price Predictions
Forecasts
on XRP span an unusually wide range, and each deserves a view against my
levels. The table below pairs the major calls with my own read.
|
Source |
Target |
Notes |
|
My analysis (base) |
$0.67, $0.47, $0.29 |
Staged on |
|
Standard Chartered (Kendrick) |
$2.80 / $8.00 |
Contingent |
|
24/7 Wall St |
$0.80 |
Next support below $1.00 |
|
Changelly (model) |
$1.17 avg July |
Range-bound base case |
|
Bitcoin Foundation |
$1.20-$1.35 |
Relief |
Standard
Chartered’s Geoffrey Kendrick holds a $2.80 base case and an $8.00 bull target,
both contingent on the CLARITY Act passing and ETF inflows reaching $10
billion. My view is that the calendar is not delivering that catalyst, so I
treat $8 as a 2027 story at best while price trades below $1.26. The 24/7 Wall
St call for $0.80 as the next support below $1.00 lines up with the top of my
$0.93 to $0.76 band, the first magnet before $0.67.
Changelly’s
model averages about $1.17 for July, a range-bound read that only holds while
$1.00 survives, and the monthly close argues the other way. Bitcoin
Foundation’s $1.20 to $1.35 recovery scenario requires Bitcoin reclaiming its
own broken levels first, which makes it a relief bounce rather than a trend
change. My base case stays lower: staged downside on any confirmed loss of
parity, an extension of the bear path my June 5 analysis tracked and the downside targets I first mapped in January.
FAQ, XRP Price Analysis
Why is the XRP price going
down?
XRP fell
22% in June as part of a broad crypto selloff that pushed Bitcoin below
$59,000. The decline was macro rather than XRP-specific, compounded by
MicroStrategy’s $216 million Bitcoin sale and a CLARITY Act floor vote that
slipped to late July. The June monthly close below $1.26 turned the technical
picture structurally bearish.
What is the key support
level for XRP now?
The line
that matters is $1.00 parity. Below it, my chart shows the first support at the
$0.93 to $0.76 band, the 2023 to 2024 supply zone. A monthly close under $1.00
would confirm the breakdown and open the staged targets beneath, starting near
$0.67 and extending toward $0.29.
How low can XRP go in
2026?
My analysis
maps three downside targets measured from the loss of $1.00 parity: roughly 35%
to $0.67, around 55% to $0.47, and about 71% to $0.29. Each aligns with
historical structure, from the 2018 resistance at $0.67 to the 2018-19 and
2022-23 lows near $0.29. These activate only on a confirmed monthly loss of
parity.
Can XRP still reach $8
this cycle?
Standard
Chartered’s Geoffrey Kendrick keeps an $8.00 target, but it is contingent on
the CLARITY Act passing and XRP ETF inflows reaching $10 billion. Neither
condition is met, and the bill’s floor vote has slipped to late July. With
price below $1.26, I treat $8 as a 2027 scenario rather than a 2026 base case.
What would invalidate this
bearish XRP price prediction?
A monthly
close back above $1.26 would neutralize the breakdown. Beyond that, XRP needs
to reclaim the $1.51 to $1.57 ceiling that has capped every rally in 2026 to
shift the structure bullish. Until then, my base case stays lower, with $1.00
parity the immediate line to watch.
XRP traded at $1.13 on Tuesday, July 7, 2026,
about 9% above a June monthly close of $1.04 that broke three years of chart
structure. The month printed a 22% loss and the first monthly close below the
$1.26 support that had contained every dip since 2023. My monthly chart also
closed beneath the 50-month exponential moving average, a line price held
almost without interruption for more than three years.
This XRP
price prediction maps what a loss of $1.00 parity opens on the downside: staged
targets at $0.67, $0.47, and $0.29. The near-term drivers are Bitcoin ‘s floor
and a CLARITY Act vote that has slipped into late July.
Follow
me on X for real-time crypto market analysis: @ChmielDk
The June
candle is the most important XRP has printed in three years. Price closed the
month at $1.04, down 22%, and for the first time since 2023 it settled below
the $1.26 shelf that had held the token in check for months. That level is not
arbitrary. It aligns with the May 2018 lows and the second-half 2021
resistance, so its loss carries structural weight.
The same
candle closed below the 50-month exponential moving average, the line price had
tracked above almost without a break for more than three years. In more than 15
years reading these charts, 10 of them at FinanceMagnates.com and documented on
my analyst page, I have watched XRP defend the
$1.26 area repeatedly. This is the first monthly close beneath it.
How low can the XRP price go after the monthly break? Source: Tradingview.com
The last
line for the bulls is $1.00. My chart shows a decisive loss of parity opening a
staged decline toward historical structure below. The first stop is the $0.93
to $0.76 band, the 2023 to 2024 supply zone I flagged in my June analysis. Below it, three levels define the
bearish path.
A move of
roughly 35% from the breakdown zone tests $0.67, the 2018 resistance retested
in 2020 and defended through 2023 and 2024. A drop of around 55% reaches $0.47,
the extension of that same band near the 50-week moving average. The apogee of
the bearish case sits about 71% lower at $0.29, the level that marked the 2018
to 2019 lows and the bear-market floor at the turn of 2022 and 2023.
XRP/USDT on a daily chart. Source: Tradingview.com
On the
daily chart the same $1.26 resistance is visible, last tested in mid-June. The
50-day EMA now acts as dynamic resistance, tagged in early July and rejected on
the retest. XRP sits at $1.13, mid-range, boxed between $1.26 above and the
$1.01 to $1.03 late-June lows that guard $1.00 parity. My directional bias
stays bearish while price holds under $1.26, and it only flips on a monthly
close back above that shelf.
|
Level |
Type |
Notes |
|
$1.26 |
Resistance |
Multi-year |
|
$1.13 |
Spot |
July 7 price, mid-range |
|
50-day EMA |
Dynamic resistance |
Tagged early July, rejected |
|
$1.00 |
Support |
Psychological |
|
$0.93-$0.76 |
Support band |
2023-24 |
|
$0.67 |
Target (-35%) |
2018 resistance, defended 2023-24 |
|
$0.47 |
Target (-55%) |
Band |
|
$0.29 |
Target (-71%) |
2018-19 lows, 2022-23 bear floor |
Why Is XRP Going Down?
The June
decline was a broad-market event, not an XRP story. Bitcoin fell roughly 20% on
the month and slipped below $59,000, and Ethereum , Solana, and BNB dropped with
it. When the largest tokens fall together, the selling reflects liquidity
rather than any single asset.
Institutional
signaling added to the pressure. MicroStrategy confirmed the sale of about $216
million in Bitcoin, and the move is “likely to weigh on sentiment,”
said Paul Howard, Senior Director at Wincent. Howard noted that high-profile
institutional sales often trigger copycat de-risking, and that a decision to
monetize part of a position can read as a cautious signal for the next three to
four months. He added that much of the transaction was probably executed
over-the-counter to limit direct market impact.
Regulation
removed the one catalyst bulls were counting on. The CLARITY Act, which would classify XRP as a
commodity under US law, missed its early-July target after the Senate left for
recess. The floor vote now sits in late July or early August, per congressional
scheduling.
The
pressure on XRP comes from four converging factors:
- Broad crypto selloff: Bitcoin fell below $59,000 in
June, draining altcoin liquidity - Institutional signaling: MicroStrategy’s $216M Bitcoin
sale dented sentiment, per Wincent’s Howard - Stalled regulation: the CLARITY Act floor vote
slipped to late July, removing the bull catalyst - Macro dependence: Bitcoin’s floor and the Fed’s
rate path now move XRP more than any Ripple headline
How Low Can XRP Go? XRP
Price Predictions
Forecasts
on XRP span an unusually wide range, and each deserves a view against my
levels. The table below pairs the major calls with my own read.
|
Source |
Target |
Notes |
|
My analysis (base) |
$0.67, $0.47, $0.29 |
Staged on |
|
Standard Chartered (Kendrick) |
$2.80 / $8.00 |
Contingent |
|
24/7 Wall St |
$0.80 |
Next support below $1.00 |
|
Changelly (model) |
$1.17 avg July |
Range-bound base case |
|
Bitcoin Foundation |
$1.20-$1.35 |
Relief |
Standard
Chartered’s Geoffrey Kendrick holds a $2.80 base case and an $8.00 bull target,
both contingent on the CLARITY Act passing and ETF inflows reaching $10
billion. My view is that the calendar is not delivering that catalyst, so I
treat $8 as a 2027 story at best while price trades below $1.26. The 24/7 Wall
St call for $0.80 as the next support below $1.00 lines up with the top of my
$0.93 to $0.76 band, the first magnet before $0.67.
Changelly’s
model averages about $1.17 for July, a range-bound read that only holds while
$1.00 survives, and the monthly close argues the other way. Bitcoin
Foundation’s $1.20 to $1.35 recovery scenario requires Bitcoin reclaiming its
own broken levels first, which makes it a relief bounce rather than a trend
change. My base case stays lower: staged downside on any confirmed loss of
parity, an extension of the bear path my June 5 analysis tracked and the downside targets I first mapped in January.
FAQ, XRP Price Analysis
Why is the XRP price going
down?
XRP fell
22% in June as part of a broad crypto selloff that pushed Bitcoin below
$59,000. The decline was macro rather than XRP-specific, compounded by
MicroStrategy’s $216 million Bitcoin sale and a CLARITY Act floor vote that
slipped to late July. The June monthly close below $1.26 turned the technical
picture structurally bearish.
What is the key support
level for XRP now?
The line
that matters is $1.00 parity. Below it, my chart shows the first support at the
$0.93 to $0.76 band, the 2023 to 2024 supply zone. A monthly close under $1.00
would confirm the breakdown and open the staged targets beneath, starting near
$0.67 and extending toward $0.29.
How low can XRP go in
2026?
My analysis
maps three downside targets measured from the loss of $1.00 parity: roughly 35%
to $0.67, around 55% to $0.47, and about 71% to $0.29. Each aligns with
historical structure, from the 2018 resistance at $0.67 to the 2018-19 and
2022-23 lows near $0.29. These activate only on a confirmed monthly loss of
parity.
Can XRP still reach $8
this cycle?
Standard
Chartered’s Geoffrey Kendrick keeps an $8.00 target, but it is contingent on
the CLARITY Act passing and XRP ETF inflows reaching $10 billion. Neither
condition is met, and the bill’s floor vote has slipped to late July. With
price below $1.26, I treat $8 as a 2027 scenario rather than a 2026 base case.
What would invalidate this
bearish XRP price prediction?
A monthly
close back above $1.26 would neutralize the breakdown. Beyond that, XRP needs
to reclaim the $1.51 to $1.57 ceiling that has capped every rally in 2026 to
shift the structure bullish. Until then, my base case stays lower, with $1.00
parity the immediate line to watch.
Source: Original Article
