The low at 52343 is just a price, it’s not a swing bottom. If the selling is strong enough then look for the move to continue into an intermediate retracement zone at 51882 to 41463. Even more important support is the 50-day moving average at 51373.
SK Hynix Took the Whole Group Down
The 13% debut-day pop lasted one session. SK Hynix gave back 7% Monday after Seoul sold it hard enough to post the stock’s largest single-day drop on record. By the time U.S. premarket opened the damage had already spread. The iShares Semiconductor ETF went with it and every memory name got hit.
The chip trade was overcrowded going into the week and SK Hynix gave everyone a reason to lighten up at the same time. That is a positioning flush, not a thesis breakdown.
Banks Report Into a Crowded Week
JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo all report this week and their stocks were already trading lower ahead of the numbers. The 23% year-over-year earnings growth bar from FactSet is high enough to matter. Netflix, Johnson & Johnson, and UnitedHealth are also on deck.
The CPI print Tuesday is supposed to show headline inflation cooling 0.2% month-over-month but 3.8% on the annual rate is still running too hot. Warsh testifies before the House Financial Services Committee that same afternoon. A hot number with crude running the way it is gives him zero room to signal patience on rates.
What to Watch
Chip positioning and Hormuz risk are pulling in different directions Monday. The semiconductor unwind is a crowded-trade correction and bank earnings later this week decide whether money rotates or retreats. If the banks clear the earnings bar the tech weakness stays contained to chips.
The crude spike matters more Tuesday than it does today. Oil moving like that the day before CPI lands puts the inflation print in a different context. Warsh testifying that same afternoon gives the market two rate-sensitive catalysts in one session.
The Nasdaq-100 is the chart under the most pressure, sitting on its 50-day moving average with no buyers stepping in yet. A sustained break puts last week’s low on the table. The S&P 500 has more room to work with, still holding above Fibonacci support, but bulls need to retake 7628.75 to prove the two-day rally off Thursday’s low is still alive. The Dow is stuck between a pair of retracement levels and that range breaks one way or the other before the week is out.
More Information in our Economic Calendar.
Source: Original Article
