Jun 21, 2026
A growing number of analysts are questioning the prevailing market assumption that interest rates in major developed economies will continue to rise, according to a report from ING. The analysis suggests that central banks in the United States, the eurozone, and the United Kingdom may ultimately need to lower borrowing costs within the next 12 to 18 months, despite current hawkish rhetoric.United States: A Pause, Not a HikeIn the US, the Federal Reserve under Chair Kevin Warsh has signaled a more restrictive stance. Warsh launched five new taskforces this week, and his recent comments have reinforced the view that he is not immediately inclined to cut rates. However, the report notes that Warsh is only one of 12 voters on the Federal Open Market Committee, and several other members now see a case for rate increases this year. Market pricing currently anticipates rates rising by 50 basis points over the next year.Despite this, the ING analysis argues that the case for rate hikes is weakening. The recent jobs market recovery appears less robust when stripping out private health, social care, and hospitality sectors, which account for only a quarter of jobs but two-thirds of job growth so far this year. Crucially, there is little evidence that this improvement is generating broader wage pressure. Inflation fears should recede as the year progresses, partly due to housing trends. Warsh himself acknowledged that policy still looks restrictive in the housing sector. Rents are barely rising, which should pull core CPI lower given housing’s large weight in the index. Lower fuel prices, a reversal of recent air fare spikes, and the fading impact of tariffs further undermine the argument for hikes. ING notes that half of the FOMC does not believe the Fed needs to hike, and the firm’s call is for a lengthy pause.Eurozone: Tough Talk, but Signs of EasingEuropean Central Bank policymakers are increasingly discussing the risk of second-round effects from inflation. ECB President Christine Lagarde indicated this week that she is beginning to see signs of them. The ECB is expected to hike again this summer. However, food inflation fell sharply in May across the eurozone, the UK, and parts of Eastern Europe. While it is too early to conclude anything about second-round effects, the report suggests that by the first quarter of next year, a clearer picture will emerge of whether energy costs are feeding into pay negotiations. If they are not, current rate hikes may start to look unnecessary.United Kingdom: A Familiar PatternThe UK provides a potential guide for what may happen elsewhere. Almost exactly a year ago, Bank of England hawks were warning about rising food prices, employer taxes, and the minimum wage, which slowed policy easing. Yet by February, those fears had largely evaporated. The Bank of England concluded that the risk of second-round effects had faded, and the latest data on prices and wages supports that view. The report suggests that absent a major geopolitical shock, there is a growing case for the Bank of England to move rates lower.Central and Eastern Europe: Mixed SignalsIn Poland, wage growth in May is expected to return to slightly above 6% year-on-year after a deceleration in April, though this is attributed to one-off factors. Producer prices are set to accelerate further as the government’s fuel shield continues to protect consumers. Construction output is expected to maintain a gradual upward trajectory. The registered unemployment rate is expected to decline slightly below 6%, largely due to seasonal factors, with the labor market remaining in a low-hire, low-fire environment.In Hungary, the National Bank of Hungary faces an intriguing rate decision. Official communication has suggested a cautious 25-basis-point cut to 6.00%. However, given that the forint has reached a five-year high against major currencies and government bond yields have fallen to levels not seen since early 2022, a bolder move could be justified. ING pencils in a 25bp move until decision-makers openly discuss a larger cut.In the Czech Republic, both business and consumer sentiment are likely to record a marginal improvement in June, supported by recent negotiations that imply lower oil prices. Domestic fuel prices eased tangibly in June, which should help halt the deterioration of consumer sentiment.In Azerbaijan, the Central Bank is expected to hold the refinancing rate at 6.50% at its upcoming meeting. Inflation picked up slightly to 5.8% year-on-year, with increased pressure across all major segments, but remains within the target range, suggesting little urgency to adjust policy.Overall, while markets currently expect rates to stay higher, the ING analysis concludes that by this time next year, central banks may be quietly preparing to explain why they are moving lower.
1. INTRODUCTION
Making Data-Driven Decisions to Grow Your Business
REPORT DESCRIPTION
RESEARCH METHODOLOGY AND THE AI PLATFORM
DATA-DRIVEN DECISIONS FOR YOUR BUSINESS
GLOSSARY AND SPECIFIC TERMS
2. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
A Quick Overview of Market Performance
KEY FINDINGS
MARKET TRENDS This Chapter is Available Only for the Professional EditionPRO
3. MARKET OVERVIEW
Understanding the Current State of The Market and its Prospects
MARKET SIZE: HISTORICAL DATA (2012–2025) AND FORECAST (2026–2035)
CONSUMPTION BY COUNTRY: HISTORICAL DATA (2012–2025) AND FORECAST (2026–2035)
MARKET FORECAST TO 2035
4. MOST PROMISING PRODUCTS FOR DIVERSIFICATION
Finding New Products to Diversify Your Business
TOP PRODUCTS TO DIVERSIFY YOUR BUSINESS
BEST-SELLING PRODUCTS
MOST CONSUMED PRODUCTS
MOST TRADED PRODUCTS
MOST PROFITABLE PRODUCTS FOR EXPORT
5. MOST PROMISING SUPPLYING COUNTRIES
Choosing the Best Countries to Establish Your Sustainable Supply Chain
TOP COUNTRIES TO SOURCE YOUR PRODUCT
TOP PRODUCING COUNTRIES
TOP EXPORTING COUNTRIES
LOW-COST EXPORTING COUNTRIES
6. MOST PROMISING OVERSEAS MARKETS
Choosing the Best Countries to Boost Your Export
TOP OVERSEAS MARKETS FOR EXPORTING YOUR PRODUCT
TOP CONSUMING MARKETS
UNSATURATED MARKETS
TOP IMPORTING MARKETS
MOST PROFITABLE MARKETS
7. PRODUCTION
The Latest Trends and Insights into The Industry
PRODUCTION VOLUME AND VALUE: HISTORICAL DATA (2012–2025) AND FORECAST (2026–2035)
PRODUCTION BY COUNTRY: HISTORICAL DATA (2012–2025) AND FORECAST (2026–2035)
8. IMPORTS
The Largest Import Supplying Countries
IMPORTS: HISTORICAL DATA (2012–2025) AND FORECAST (2026–2035)
IMPORTS BY COUNTRY: HISTORICAL DATA (2012–2025) AND FORECAST (2026–2035)
IMPORT PRICES BY COUNTRY: HISTORICAL DATA (2012–2025) AND FORECAST (2026–2035)
9. EXPORTS
The Largest Destinations for Exports
EXPORTS: HISTORICAL DATA (2012–2025) AND FORECAST (2026–2035)
EXPORTS BY COUNTRY: HISTORICAL DATA (2012–2025) AND FORECAST (2026–2035)
EXPORT PRICES BY COUNTRY: HISTORICAL DATA (2012–2025) AND FORECAST (2026–2035)
10. PROFILES OF MAJOR PRODUCERS
The Largest Producers on The Market and Their Profiles
11. COUNTRY PROFILES
The Largest Markets And Their Profiles
This Chapter is Available Only for the Professional Edition
PRO
11.1United StatesMarket SizeProductionImportsExports11.2ChinaMarket SizeProductionImportsExports11.3JapanMarket SizeProductionImportsExports11.4GermanyMarket SizeProductionImportsExports11.5United KingdomMarket SizeProductionImportsExports11.6FranceMarket SizeProductionImportsExports11.7BrazilMarket SizeProductionImportsExports11.8ItalyMarket SizeProductionImportsExports11.9Russian FederationMarket SizeProductionImportsExports11.10IndiaMarket SizeProductionImportsExports11.11CanadaMarket SizeProductionImportsExports11.12AustraliaMarket SizeProductionImportsExports11.13Republic of KoreaMarket SizeProductionImportsExports11.14SpainMarket SizeProductionImportsExports11.15MexicoMarket SizeProductionImportsExports11.16IndonesiaMarket SizeProductionImportsExports11.17NetherlandsMarket SizeProductionImportsExports11.18TurkeyMarket SizeProductionImportsExports11.19Saudi ArabiaMarket SizeProductionImportsExports11.20SwitzerlandMarket SizeProductionImportsExports11.21SwedenMarket SizeProductionImportsExports11.22NigeriaMarket SizeProductionImportsExports11.23PolandMarket SizeProductionImportsExports11.24BelgiumMarket SizeProductionImportsExports11.25ArgentinaMarket SizeProductionImportsExports11.26NorwayMarket SizeProductionImportsExports11.27AustriaMarket SizeProductionImportsExports11.28ThailandMarket SizeProductionImportsExports11.29United Arab EmiratesMarket SizeProductionImportsExports11.30ColombiaMarket SizeProductionImportsExports11.31DenmarkMarket SizeProductionImportsExports11.32South AfricaMarket SizeProductionImportsExports11.33MalaysiaMarket SizeProductionImportsExports11.34IsraelMarket SizeProductionImportsExports11.35SingaporeMarket SizeProductionImportsExports11.36EgyptMarket SizeProductionImportsExports11.37PhilippinesMarket SizeProductionImportsExports11.38FinlandMarket SizeProductionImportsExports11.39ChileMarket SizeProductionImportsExports11.40IrelandMarket SizeProductionImportsExports11.41PakistanMarket SizeProductionImportsExports11.42GreeceMarket SizeProductionImportsExports11.43PortugalMarket SizeProductionImportsExports11.44KazakhstanMarket SizeProductionImportsExports11.45AlgeriaMarket SizeProductionImportsExports11.46Czech RepublicMarket SizeProductionImportsExports11.47QatarMarket SizeProductionImportsExports11.48PeruMarket SizeProductionImportsExports11.49RomaniaMarket SizeProductionImportsExports11.50VietnamMarket SizeProductionImportsExports
LIST OF TABLES
Key Findings In 2025
Market Volume, In Physical Terms: Historical Data (2012–2025) and Forecast (2026–2035)
Market Value: Historical Data (2012–2025) and Forecast (2026–2035)
Per Capita Consumption, by Country, 2022–2025
Production, In Physical Terms, By Country: Historical Data (2012–2025) and Forecast (2026–2035)
Imports, In Physical Terms, By Country: Historical Data (2012–2025) and Forecast (2026–2035)
Imports, In Value Terms, By Country: Historical Data (2012–2025) and Forecast (2026–2035)
Import Prices, By Country: Historical Data (2012–2025) and Forecast (2026–2035)
Exports, In Physical Terms, By Country: Historical Data (2012–2025) and Forecast (2026–2035)
Exports, In Value Terms, By Country: Historical Data (2012–2025) and Forecast (2026–2035)
Export Prices, By Country: Historical Data (2012–2025) and Forecast (2026–2035)
LIST OF FIGURES
Market Volume, In Physical Terms: Historical Data (2012–2025) and Forecast (2026–2035)
Market Value: Historical Data (2012–2025) and Forecast (2026–2035)
Consumption, by Country, 2025
Market Volume Forecast to 2035
Market Value Forecast to 2035
Market Size and Growth, By Product
Average Per Capita Consumption, By Product
Exports and Growth, By Product
Export Prices and Growth, By Product
Production Volume and Growth
Exports and Growth
Export Prices and Growth
Market Size and Growth
Per Capita Consumption
Imports and Growth
Import Prices
Production, In Physical Terms: Historical Data (2012–2025) and Forecast (2026–2035)
Production, In Value Terms: Historical Data (2012–2025) and Forecast (2026–2035)
Production, by Country, 2025
Production, In Physical Terms, by Country: Historical Data (2012–2025) and Forecast (2026–2035)
Imports, In Physical Terms: Historical Data (2012–2025) and Forecast (2026–2035)
Imports, In Value Terms: Historical Data (2012–2025) and Forecast (2026–2035)
Imports, In Physical Terms, By Country, 2025
Imports, In Physical Terms, By Country: Historical Data (2012–2025) and Forecast (2026–2035)
Imports, In Value Terms, By Country: Historical Data (2012–2025) and Forecast (2026–2035)
Import Prices, By Country: Historical Data (2012–2025) and Forecast (2026–2035)
Exports, In Physical Terms: Historical Data (2012–2025) and Forecast (2026–2035)
Exports, In Value Terms: Historical Data (2012–2025) and Forecast (2026–2035)
Exports, In Physical Terms, By Country, 2025
Exports, In Physical Terms, By Country: Historical Data (2012–2025) and Forecast (2026–2035)
Exports, In Value Terms, By Country: Historical Data (2012–2025) and Forecast (2026–2035)
Export Prices, By Country: Historical Data (2012–2025) and Forecast (2026–2035)
