The AUD/USD pair loses ground to near 0.6940 during the early Asian session on Monday. Renewed tensions in the Middle East weigh on the riskier assets such as the Australian Dollar (AUD) against the US Dollar (USD). Traders brace for the release of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation data, which is due later on Tuesday.
Bloomberg reported that the US Central Command (CENTCOM) launched a new strikes against Iran on Sunday aimed at further weakening the Islamic Republic’s ability to strike civilian vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) then launched retaliatory drone and missile assaults on American allies across the Middle East, including Kuwait, Jordan and Qatar.
On the other hand, hawkish rhetoric from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) might help limit the Aussie’s losses. RBA Assistant Governor Sarah Hunter said last week that the board will act as needed to return inflation to its target, warning some tightening may be required if the oil shock lifts inflation expectations, per Reuters.
The Australian central bank has implemented three interest rate increases of 25 basis points (bps) so far this year, lifting the Official Cash Rate (OCR) to 4.35%. Current ASX 30-day Interbank Cash Rate Futures indicated a minor 19% market expectation of a rate hike to 4.60% at the upcoming August meeting.
Australian Dollar FAQs
One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive.
China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs.
Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD.
The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.
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