MARKET MOVEMENTS:

–Brent crude oil is up 2.1% at $91.10 a barrel.

–European benchmark gas is down 0.1% at 59.62 euros a megawatt-hour.

–Copper futures are up 2% at $13,918.50 a metric ton.

–Gold futures are up 1.7% at $4,082.40 a troy ounce.

TOP STORY:

Adnoc, Partners to Proceed With $6.2 Billion Umm Shaif Gas Cap Project

Abu Dhabi National Oil Company said it would proceed with the $6.2 billion development of the offshore Umm Shaif Gas Cap, increasing its bet that long-term gas demand remains strong despite conflict in the Middle East highlighting supply vulnerabilities.

Adnoc said Tuesday that it has taken the final investment decision on the project alongside France’s TotalEnergies, Italy’s Eni and the China National Petroleum Corporation.

OTHER STORIES:

Gold Prices Have Tanked. Buying the Dip Makes Sense.

Gold has suffered a rough few months, tarnishing the bull case for the metal. But it still has a role to play in investor portfolios, and now is a good time to buy the dip.

A yearslong rally in the precious metal came to an end, oddly enough, with the Iran war. Since hostilities began on Feb. 28, gold is down 22%. This seems paradoxical. Shouldn’t a geopolitical crisis that unleashes global price pressures be positive for an asset often billed as a hedge against inflation and instability?

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Get Ready for $120 Oil if Hormuz Stays Shut, Goldman Sachs Says

The renewed closure of the Strait of Hormuz has pushed crude oil prices up 25% from their early July lows. They could go a lot higher if the waterway doesn’t reopen, say Goldman Sachs analysts.

They say benchmark Brent crude might exceed $120 a barrel in the fourth quarter and average $100 in 2027 if Hormuz is still bunged up. At $120, Brent would be just above an intraday high it hit in early March.

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Var Energi Agrees $1.3 Billion Deal to Buy BlueNord

Norwegian oil and gas producer Var Energi agreed to buy Oslo-listed peer BlueNord in a cash and stock deal worth around $1.3 billion.

Var Energi, which operates on the Norwegian Continental Shelf, said the deal will add BlueNord’s Danish North Sea assets to its portfolio, a highly compatible region that increases exposure to European gas markets and expands access to key European gas infrastructure.

MARKET TALKS:

Lundin Mining Outlook Intact Despite Winter Storms in Chile — Market Talk

1145 ET – A severe winter storm in Chile has temporarily disrupted Lundin Mining’s operations, but TD Cowen’s Craig Hutchison thinks the impact should be short-lived and doesn’t threaten full-year guidance. At Caserones, mining is suspended due to heavy snowfall and power issues, and Hutchison estimates roughly $12 million in Ebitda lost per week of downtime, though management had already factored weather risks into its 130,000 to 140,000 metric-ton forecast. At Candelaria, mining paused but the mill continues to run on stockpiled ore, keeping its outlook intact as well. Depending on how long access restoration takes, Hutchison thinks the storm’s effects will be a neutral to slightly negative impact. ([email protected])

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SovEcon Reduces Outlook for Russian Crop Size — Market Talk

1108 ET – Black Sea agricultural research firm SovEcon says that it has reduced its outlook for Russia’s wheat output, cutting it down to 88.3 million metric tons from a previous forecast of 88.9 million tons. Driving the reduction is a weaker outlook for wheat coming out of Russia’s southern growing areas – specifically around the city of Krasnodar, says Andrey Sizov in a note. “Krasnodar has become the main uncertainty,” says Sizov. “Yields there could still improve as better fields are harvested, but for now the region is holding back an otherwise strong crop in the South.” SovEcon also made cuts to planted area for Russian wheat. CBOT wheat futures are down 0.6% in morning trade, while corn is flat and soybeans fall 0.6%. ([email protected])

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Grains Stay Lower as Analysts Mull Heat Effect — Market Talk

1041 ET – CBOT grain futures are down in morning trade, with grain traders not seeing enough of a threat coming from the weather report to add risk premium to grain futures, says Jim Wiesemeyer of Ag Bull in a note. Citing relatively high crop ratings seen as recently as yesterday’s report, Wiesemeyer says that traders don’t think summer heat will be enough to derail this year’s yields. “With ratings that high in late July, the market needs sustained heat and dryness, not a one-week scare, to build a lasting weather premium – and the overnight trade suggests funds are not yet convinced,” says Wiesemeyer. CBOT corn is down 0.2%, while soybeans slide 0.4% and wheat is down 0.7%. ([email protected])

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Cattle Climbs as Crop Progress Report Shows Pasture Issues — Market Talk

1033 ET – CME live cattle futures are up 0.1% in morning trade, with the high heat seen in U.S. growing areas showing up by way of weaker pasture conditions reported by the USDA this week. In its Crop Progress report, the USDA says that only 29% of U.S. pastures are in good-or-excellent condition, which is down 1 point from the prior week and off 14 points from this time last year. Conditions may be ripe for prices to show some rebounding, says Naomi Blohm of Total Farm Marketing in a note. “The market is technically oversold, a recovery bounce seems likely,” says Blohm. Analysts are looking towards this week’s upcoming Cattle on Feed report, Blohm says, which is scheduled to be published Friday. Lean hog futures rise 0.3%. ([email protected])

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Natural Gas Steady With Support From Texas Heat — Market Talk

0933 ET – U.S. natural gas futures are little changed in early trading, with triple-digit heat in Texas likely to support power-sector demand. The possible impact of tropical storm Bertha is mixed as the system moves along the Gulf coast, with potential for offshore production declines but also risks to LNG exports and cooling rains, Eli Rubin of EBW Analytics says in a note. Offshore natural gas production loss from the storm could be between 4.4 Bcf and 6 Bcf, according to estimates by Earth Science Associates. The consulting firm estimates lost oil production between 1.4 and 5.4 million barrels. Nymex natural gas is off 0.1% at $2.858/mmBtu.([email protected])

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French Wheat Yields Battered by Heat — Market Talk

0929 ET – The unprecedented heat that’s hit French growing areas since May has taken a chunk out of the country’s expected wheat output for this year. This year’s French wheat crop is expected to be 7.6% smaller than the prior season, says Commerzbank in a note, citing an assessment from Argus Media. That leaves the projected French soft wheat crop at 30.8 million metric tons. “Should further heat waves be on the horizon, this could lead to even worse crop prospects and, consequently, higher wheat prices,” says Commerzbank. Euronext wheat prices are up nearly 15% since the end of June, at 239 euros per ton as of today, according to LSEG data. CBOT wheat is down 0.7% pre-market. ([email protected])

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U.S. Agriculture Assesses New Canadian Tariffs — Market Talk

0919 ET – Grain markets are assessing what the new round of tariffs announced by President Trump may mean for U.S. agriculture. The tariffs are not scheduled to begin until next month, but included in this round is dairy products from Canada — with claims that Canada’s trade policies are discriminatory. CBOT grains haven’t reacted much to these tariffs specifically, although the timing of them comes as the U.S. and Mexico enter discussions surrounding extending the USMCA. In a note, Chris Krueger of TD Cowen says that the next 30 days “leaves ample time to hammer out some type of face-saving retaliation unwind — perhaps during the USMCA negotiations.” CBOT corn is down 0.7% pre-market, while soybeans fall 0.3% and wheat is down 0.7%. ([email protected])

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Oil Futures Rise as U.S., Iran Continue Military Strikes — Market Talk

0912 ET – Crude futures are higher as the U.S. continues its strikes on Iranian targets and Iran attacks U.S. bases and other sites around the Gulf. Adding to supply concerns are Houthi threats against Saudi shipping in the Red Sea and Ukraine’s attacks on Russian energy infrastructure. Price advances with the latest escalation have been contained by expectations there could be a return to talks at any time. “Like everyone else I am gunshy on being overly bullish considering the headline risks that can be generated at any moment that will send oil down $5 when the market is clearly long,” Scott Shelton of TP ICAP says in a note. WTI for August delivery is up 1.9% at $84.79 ahead of today’s expiry and Brent is up 1.7% at $90.76.([email protected])

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Tightness in Refined Fuel Markets Continues to Intensify — Market Talk

1522 GMT – Global oil markets are facing the biggest pressure from tighter product supplies as the U.S. and Iran escalate hostilities, analysts at Commerzbank say. In the U.S., the gap between crude oil costs and fuel prices has widened sharply, climbing to almost $70 a barrel. Gasoline prices have risen back above $4 per gallon, while stockpiles are nearly 8.5% below seasonal norms as demand remains strong, the analysts say. Refiners operated at exceptionally high capacity levels in the second quarter, prioritizing jet fuel production for international markets over gasoline output. Analysts warn that pushing refineries too hard for too long could increase the risk of refinery outages later in the year. Meanwhile, China is adding to global product market tightness, with June production of jet fuel, diesel, and gasoline all declining sharply from year-ago levels, according to Commerzbank. ([email protected])

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Oil Gains 2.5% on U.S.-Iran Attacks, Shipping Risks — Market Talk

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07-21-26 1235ET