Softer-than-expected jobs data
The June nonfarm payrolls report released July 3 gave crypto a V-shaped push: only 57,000 new jobs were added, roughly half the consensus estimate above 110,000 and the weakest reading since early 2024.
The data eased concerns about the Federal Reserve being forced into further rate hikes — Wall Street’s base case shifted from “rates stay higher longer” toward “Warsh has room to pause”.
BTC climbed back above $60,000 on the news and continued fighting the $62,500 to $63,500 pocket through the holiday weekend.
June was dominated by six consecutive weeks of ETF outflows totalling $5.94 billion, a 4.1% PCE shock and BTC’s 21-month low of $58,188 on June 25.
July’s seasonal edge
History gives the current recovery some context. According to Coinglass data, BTC has closed July in positive territory in 9 of 13 completed years since 2013, with an average monthly gain of roughly 7.4%.
The pattern is particularly consistent after weak June periods: BTC fell 37.3% in June 2022 before bouncing 16.8% in July, shed 5.9% in June 2021 before recovering 18.2% and slipped 3.2% in June 2020 before climbing 24%.
CoinDesk noted that 2026’s two consecutive losing quarters place it in the same historical bracket as 2018 and 2022 — both full bear markets where even July seasonality eventually failed.
CryptoQuant reported, per Cointelegraph, that Bitcoin’s realised profit-to-loss ratio dropped to -0.35 — a 43-month low matching the December 2022 reading, which marked the cycle bottom after FTX. The same signal preceded recoveries in 2015 and 2019.
Seasonality and on-chain conditions are both pointing in the same direction; whether the macro confirms them is what July will determine.
Strategy’s sale (what actually moved)
Strategy disclosed via a Form 8-K that it sold 3,588 BTC for approximately $216 million across two tranches: 1,363 BTC between June 29 and June 30 at an average of $59,256 and 2,225 BTC between July 1 and July 5 at $60,773.
The proceeds funded preferred stock dividends and replenished Strategy’s USD reserve to $2.55 billion. Strategy holds 843,775 BTC — still more than 4% of Bitcoin’s 21 million cap — carried at a cost basis of $75,476, with an $8.32 billion Q2 unrealised loss.
The market reaction on July 6 to 7 split along Strategy’s capital structure. MSTR common shares fell about 6% at the open before recovering to close down 1.4% at $99.35.
STRC — the preferred stock that the BTC sale directly funds — rose about 3% to $91.04 on July 6, having already gained roughly 22% the prior week when Strategy announced its new Digital Credit Capital Framework (which included a $1.25 billion BTC monetisation authorisation, a $2 billion buyback program and an STRC dividend hike to 12%).
Preferred shareholders, being first in the payment queue, were the direct beneficiaries of the sale; common equity holders absorbed the dilution signal.
Bernstein maintained its $150,000 year-end BTC target, arguing that forced mass selling remains unlikely given Strategy’s $3.8 billion combined liquidity buffer: the $2.55 billion USD reserve plus the full $1.25 billion BTC monetisation capacity are still untapped.
US President Donald Trump’s pivot
The reversal of BTC’s fortunes also came from an Oval Office press conference where US President Trump was asked whether BTC might be included in the newly launched Trump Accounts, the tax-advantaged 530A children’s savings accounts launched July 4 and seeded with $1,000 for US children born 2025 to 2028.
Trump answered: “Well… I’ve become a big crypto guy.”
BTC erased the morning’s losses and closed up approximately 1.8% at $63,853. Trump committed to nothing specific; he framed his position in geopolitical terms: “If we don’t have it, China’s going to have it”.
Bloomberg reported that Trump’s Strategic Bitcoin Reserve plan is stalled as multiple government departments compete for jurisdictional control over implementation. The reserve, created via executive order in March 2025 and holding more than 207,000 BTC, has yet to function as the active demand signal the market originally priced in.
SpaceX joins the Nasdaq-100
At the July 7 open, SpaceX (SPCX) officially joined the Nasdaq-100 just 15 trading days after its June 12 IPO.
For crypto, the direct impact is limited. Index rebalancing capital doesn’t rotate into BTC; the jobs data relief rally moved into defensive sectors like communications and financials, not risk assets.
What the inclusion closes out is the narrative from the prior weeks, that a wall of AI IPO capital was actively suppressing crypto demand. The SpaceX IPO liquidity drain appeared to have settled; mega cap tech stocks initially faced profit taking in the opening week of July, but the Nasdaq shook off the AI chip dip to rise 1.1% on July 7.
Bitcoin price: Levels to watch
Looking ahead, three data points may define how far the recovery extends.
The July 15 CPI print is the first inflation read since the June 25 PCE shock; a softer figure eases the case for BofA’s three-hike forecast and could give Warsh cover to moderate his tone at the July 28 to 29 FOMC.
CLARITY Act progress — Senator Lummis has committed to a Senate floor vote in July — may supply the regulatory catalyst the market has priced in and out repeatedly.
A sustained reversal in ETF flows remains the most direct confirmation signal: after $5.94 billion in cumulative outflows over six weeks, even a week of modest net inflows may likely change the supply-demand dynamic more than presidential comments and mega IPOs.
Important information: This informational content is written by Crypto.com and should not be considered as an investment recommendation or advice. Trading cryptocurrencies carries risks, such as price volatility and market risks. Before deciding to take cryptocurrency positions, consider your risk appetite. All forecasting methods, scenarios, and examples are illustrative and subject to market uncertainty.
Past performance offers context but does not ensure future results. Investment outcomes are subject to market volatility, economic changes, and other unpredictable variables.
Source: Original Article
