S&P 500 and Nasdaq Forecast: S&P Slides Below 50-Day MA as Nasdaq Drops 5th Straight

Daily Micron Technology Inc.
Micron dropped more than 6%, giving back a chunk of Thursday’s 15% earnings-driven surge. AMD and Intel also posted sizable losses.
ON Semiconductor fell almost 24% after announcing an all-stock deal to acquire Synaptics for roughly $7 billion. Synaptics also finished lower. When both sides of a deal sell off, the market is rejecting the terms.
SpaceX edged slightly higher ahead of its addition to the Russell indexes as index funds prepared to purchase shares.
Kashkari Wants a Hike and the Dots Already Pointed There
Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said Friday he expects one rate hike will likely be needed this year. That aligns with the dot plot from last week’s meeting where nine of eighteen policymakers projected higher rates in 2026. Kashkari adding his voice to that camp gives the market another confirmation that the tightening cycle is not finished.
May consumer prices came in above 4% and even with crude oil falling on the Middle East peace process, inflation in other parts of the economy is not easing.
Consumer Sentiment Improved but the Bar Was Low
The University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey improved in June after hitting record lows earlier in the month. Households still reported concerns about rising costs of living but the direction changed for the first time in months.
Five-year inflation expectations dropped to 3.3% and one-year expectations fell to 4.6%. Lower inflation expectations matter for the Fed because if consumers stop expecting prices to keep climbing, the self-reinforcing cycle of higher wages chasing higher prices starts to slow. That does not solve the inflation problem immediately but it gives policymakers one less reason to accelerate the tightening.
Concerns about the Iran conflict also eased in the survey, improving business condition expectations over the next five years. The sentiment data gave the broader market a reason to hold Friday even while chips were selling. An improving consumer alongside a weakening tech sector is what keeps the S&P range-bound instead of breaking down.
What to Watch
Kashkari calling for a hike on the same week OpenAI delays its IPO gives the bears two arguments that reinforce each other. Higher rates pressure growth valuations. Slower AI capital formation pressures the earnings story underneath those valuations. Healthcare and consumer staples are catching the rotation but they cannot carry the S&P to new highs on their own. The chip names have to find a floor first. Micron giving back 6% after a blowout quarter tells you the market is not ready to buy the AI story on earnings alone. It wants to see the spending question answered and right now OpenAI just told it to wait until next year.
The S&P 500 closed below the 50-day and the Nasdaq posted its fifth straight loss. The Dow is near a record. Monday’s session determines whether the S&P reclaims the 50-day or whether sellers push through the June 9 swing bottom and open the path to the 200-day.
More Information in our Economic Calendar.

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