Australian monthly CPI due today – what to expect and why its not official

This is CPI for the month of April alone and is not viewed as complete or official. Nevertheless, it’s a guide.

CBA on what to expect, in breif:

We expect a 2.3%/yr outturn, slightly lower

than the 2.4%/yr in March

. Driving outcomes will be the higher annual increase in health insurance premiums and

strong

expected

travel demand, to be offset by lower fuel prices.

• We expect 2.3%/yr, slightly lower than the 2.4%/yr in March
• Driving outcomes will be the higher annual increase in health insurance premiums and strong expected travel demand, to be offset by lower fuel prices.

Westpac:

• forecasting a 0.3% rise in the April Monthly CPI
  Indicator which will take the annual pace down to 1.9%yr.
  
• Being the first month of the quarter April provides an update
  on quarterly prices for clothing & footwear, maintenance of
  dwellings and furniture & household equipment. The first month
  of the quarter focuses on goods prices so we have to wait for
  the second and third month of the quarter to get the quarterly
  updates on services.

***

I’ve posted this info before, but ICYMI:

In Australia, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the average change over time in the prices paid by households for a fixed basket of goods and services. Traditionally, the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) has published CPI data quarterly, providing comprehensive insights into inflation trends.

To offer more timely information, the ABS introduced a Monthly CPI Indicator in October 2022. This monthly indicator includes updated prices for around two-thirds of the items in the CPI basket, offering a more frequent snapshot of inflation. However, it is less detailed than the quarterly CPI, as it covers fewer items and provides data only at the national level. The monthly indicator includes aggregate headline CPI, trimmed mean, each of the 11 CPI groups (e.g., clothing & footwear, health), and some selected expenditure classes (e.g., automotive fuel, new dwelling costs, rents, domestic and international travel, and some food categories).

While the monthly CPI indicator follows similar trends to the quarterly CPI, they are not identical. This is because, when prices are collected less frequently than monthly, the monthly CPI indicator assigns price changes to the month they are collected, whereas in the quarterly CPI series, price changes are allocated across the entire quarter. Therefore, the average of the index in the three months for the monthly CPI indicator will not equal the index of the quarterly CPI.

In summary, the monthly CPI indicator provides more frequent updates on inflation trends, while the quarterly CPI offers a more comprehensive and detailed analysis.