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Despite global conflicts and economic disruptions, the U.S. stock market continues to surge. The S&P 500 was up 9% year-to-date through May 27, causing Goldman Sachs to raise their year-end price target to 8,000 points, up from its prior target of 7,600 (1). JPMorgan Private Bank’s forecast was arguably sunnier, saying it saw a path to 9,000 by mid-2027 (2).
In fact, the gains have been so attractive that even President Donald Trump is getting involved. In the first quarter of 2026, Trump disclosed 3,600 buy and sell orders for publicly listed stocks ranging from Nvidia and Tesla to Shake Shack and Papa John’s, according to a regulatory filing cited by the Associated Press (3).
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In this environment, if you have any spare cash or savings, it’s tempting to deploy it in Trump’s stock market. But would that cash be better spent on paying off your mortgage early?
Here’s what the math and data actually suggest.
Understanding the spread
When picking between mortgage repayment or stock investments, it’s important to understand the relative returns from either financial move.
Historically, the S&P 500 has delivered about a 10% annual average total return, according to JPMorgan Chase (4). Past performance is not a perfect indicator of future returns, but this long-term average is a good benchmark to consider when you’re putting money in the market.
By comparison, the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage interest rate is 6.36% as of mid-May 2026, per the Federal Reserve (5). That means that if your mortgage is near the average national rate, paying it off right now would be the equivalent of a “guaranteed return” of 6.36%.
Doing the math, the spread between the long-term average of the S&P 500 (10%) and the 30-year fixed mortgage rate (6.36%) is currently around 3.64%, so it seems justified — on paper — to invest in stocks rather than pay off your debt early.
But that’s only part of the story.
Unlike your mortgage rate, stock returns can be highly volatile. For instance, JPMorgan Chase points out that the S&P 500 showed an average total annual return of 16% between 2016 and 2025 — but when you look at the returns of individual years in that same period, they range from a 31.49% gain in 2019 to an 18.11% loss in 2022.
In other words, you can’t predict with certainty if the market will be up 30% or down 20% by the end of any given year. Your mortgage is fixed, however, and paying it off has a clear measurable return.
But there’s also a good chance your mortgage deviates from the current national average. If you locked in your home loan a few years ago and secured a 3% or 4% rate for 30 years, the spread is wider, which tilts the calculation in favor of stocks.
Ultimately, you’ll have to consider your personal finances — and you might want to look beyond the spreadsheet to find the right answer for you.
Read More: Here’s the average income of Americans by age in 2026. Are you falling behind?
Reasons beyond the spreadsheet
The simple spread between the stock market’s average return and your mortgage rate tells you which option is likely to be mathematically more lucrative. But this choice isn’t just about math, it’s also about psychology.
For instance, if you’re just a few years away from retirement, the stability of paying down your mortgage may be more appealing to you than long-term capital appreciation in the stock market. Risk appetite also plays a role, and some investors would simply prefer paying off debt early for the assurance of lower monthly payments.
Meanwhile, if home equity is already a huge chunk of your personal net worth, you may prefer to keep some money in the stock market for diversification. In fact, if you have too much home equity, you could even consider tapping into it with a Home Equity Line of Credit (HELOC). A HELOC is basically a revolving line of credit that leverages the equity in your home as collateral, meaning that you can borrow and repay funds as needed — similar to a credit card.
Finding a flexible HELOC for your needs
If that seems like a smart financial move for you, AmeriSave offers a flexible HELOC that lets homeowners borrow against their equity as needed during a draw period, making it useful for anything from renovations to debt consolidation. The application is mostly online and available in most states.
It’s also a good fit for borrowers who want convenience and flexibility rather than a large lump-sum loan upfront. You can draw funds only when you need them, so it’s useful for ongoing or unpredictable costs. Interest is charged only on what you use, and you repay the balance over time. It’s essentially a flexible credit line secured by your home, delivered through a mostly online application process.
Get some professional help
The decision between a mortgage or stock investment depends on many factors that stretch far beyond a simple spreadsheet. To consider all factors, from tax planning to personal risk tolerance, you might want to consider working with a professional financial advisor.
Working with a financial advisor can help you plan out your financial future and reduce costly oversights. And that’s why there are platforms like WiserAdvisor, which can connect you with vetted professionals who specialize in this kind of planning.
How it works:
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Share your goals: You provide a few details about your savings, retirement timeline and investment portfolio.
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Get matched for free: WiserAdvisor scours its network to match you with up to three vetted, reputable advisors who fit your specific needs.
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Consult for free: You can set up a no-obligation consultation with your matches to see who is the best fit for your long-term goals.
Note: WiserAdvisor is a matching service and does not provide financial advice directly. All matched advisors are third parties, and specific financial results are not guaranteed.
Bottom line
Based on pure math and data, investing in the stock market should deliver a better return than paying off a mortgage early. However, your personal situation also plays a big role in finding the right answer for you.
If you’re young and you’ve got a relatively cheap mortgage and an appetite for some risk, the stock market may be a better option. Meanwhile, if you’re retired (or near retirement), have too much debt or simply prefer peace of mind, consider paying off your mortgage a little early.
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Article Sources
We rely only on vetted sources and credible third-party reporting. For details, see our ethics and guidelines.
Business Insider (1), (2); Associated Press (3); Chase (4); Federal Reserve Economic Data (5)
This article provides information only and should not be construed as advice. It is provided without warranty of any kind.
