These are the early headlines and other items poised to influence the market at the start of trading Monday. As we share this collection of market drivers, U.S. equity futures point to a positive market open.
1. President Trump asked for several amendments to the deal his envoys reached with their Iranian counterparts during a Situation Room meeting on Friday, according to a senior administration official and a second source briefed on the issue. Why it matters: Trump wants the deal and expects to finalize it soon, but is keen to strengthen several points that are important to him. (Axios) Iran’s Parliament Speaker Mohammad Ghalibaf said Sunday that there would be no deal unless Iran’s rights were secured. (Barron’s)
2. The U.S. and Iran exchanged fresh blows over the weekend, with the U.S. striking what it said were air-defense radar and drone sites and Kuwait coming under attack after Iran said it was retaliating. The exchange of fire came as the two foes were working to hammer out a deal to wind down the fighting. President Trump indicated a deal was close ahead of the weekend, but mediators have said issues like nuclear commitments and the timing and scale of any financial relief remained unresolved. (WSJ) Oil prices were rising early Monday following exchanges of fire between the U.S. and Iran over the weekend, undermining hopes of a peace deal. (Barron’s)
When it comes to making moves for the Pro Portfolio, our preference is not to rush things and to have multiple pieces come together to allow for the best decision even if the timing may take longer than expected or even hoped for. While delays and potential bluster are what we continue to read about, that is what the above regarding peace talks sounds like.
Frustrating as it is, as the conflict enters its fourth month, we are cautiously optimistic that despite a series of skirmishes over the last week, peace talks between the U.S. and Iran have continued. As those talks drag on, we’re likely to see oil prices remain volatile in the near-term with the next sustained move to be determined by the ultimate outcome from peace talks and the details behind any final agreement.
At the same time, we should be prepared to see the flow through of the three-month conflict in this week’s economic data…
3. China’s factory activity stalled in May as new export orders contracted and input costs kept rising, an official survey showed on Sunday, adding to concerns the world’s second-largest economy is losing momentum despite pockets of strength in services and high-tech manufacturing. (Reuters) The economic shock from the Iran war hit European factories last month, suppressing demand for their goods and pushing up raw material costs at the fastest rate in four years, although their Asian peers saw activity expand due to stockpiling, surveys showed on Monday… In Germany, Europe’s largest economy, the manufacturing sector stalled while French factories saw a contraction for the first time since November. (Reuters)
That sets the stage for today’s May Manufacturing PMI reports from S&P Global and ISM. Inside both reports, the topics of inflation pressures, pricing action, job creation and new order growth will be our focal points. However, because the manufacturing sector drives 10%-15% of U.S. GDP, we would argue the corresponding data points coming from the Service PMI data out later this week should be a greater importance to investors.
What the Manufacturing and Services PMI data have to say about May inflation will set the stage for next week’s May CPI and PPI reports, while the PMI employment data will do the same for Friday’s May Employment Report. And though new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh is talking up other inflation measures, including “trimmed mean” inflation, ahead of the Fed’s next policy meeting in just over two weeks, we’ll be keeping our ears open for comments from Fed officials this week as the PMI and jobs data are released.
4. Nvidia has been on the defensive against Intel and Advanced Micro Devices AMD in recent months when it comes to artificial-intelligence processors. Now it’s striking back at its peers’ core market with an AI chip designed for personal computers. Nvidia late on Sunday unveiled the RTX Spark, which it described as “the most efficient PC chip ever built,” designed for personal devices to run AI agents—programs that can act autonomously. It combines a central-processing unit alongside one of the company’s Blackwell graphics-processing units. (Barron’s) Nvidia plans on launching the first RTX Spark laptops using an “N1X” processor built in partnership with Taiwanese chipmaker MediaTek. The chip uses TSMC’s 3 nanometer manufacturing node. The first products will arrive this fall through the top PC makers including Asus, Dell, HP, Lenovo, MSI and Microsoft’s own Surface brand. (PCMag)
Weekend chatter for this announcement was building ahead of Nvidia (NVDA) CEO Jensen Huang’s Computex keynote given early this morning or very late last night depending on where you reside. Jensen’s comment was that “40 years later, Microsoft and Nvidia are going to reinvent the PC.” The PC chips have not only been designed to be fast and power efficient, but they also promise to run autonomous AI agents, capable of completing tasks for you 24/7.
This announcement is lifting NVDA shares this morning and suggests Wall Street expectations for H2 2026 and the ensuing quarters will need to be revised higher. The knee-jerk reaction is this Nvidia move will strike at the heart of the PC business at Intel (INTC) and Advanced Micro (AMD). Logical to say the least, but it will also make the move into the PC market by Qualcomm (QCOM) far more challenging as it continues to deal with issues in its largest end market…
5. The global smartphone market is heading for its steepest annual contraction on record, with shipments projected to slump by 13.9% this year to 1.08 billion units, Counterpoint Research said on Monday, citing a worsening shortage of memory chips. The forecast is a downgrade from the 12.4% decline projected in February, with the squeeze in global chip supply exacerbated by the Iran war… The memory chip shortage is the most severe supply-side disruption the smartphone industry has faced, Wang said, adding that manufacturers are unable to offset the impact through pricing or product changes. (Reuters)
Smartphone industry shipments fell just 6% in Q1 2026, per Counterpoint, and in early April the firm didn’t see that end market recovering until late 2027. This should make for a challenging smartphone segment at Qualcomm just as its relationship with Apple (AAPL) winds down as it shifts more models to Apple Silicon.
Apple’s supply chain and focus on premium smartphone models should help insulate it and help it pick up incremental market share. We continue to think next week’s WWDC keynote and the reception to its overhauled, AI-enabled Siri will be an important part in determining what’s next for the closely watched iPhone upgrade cycle. At the same time, we’d caution you that while Apple will unveil this new Siri, odds are high it won’t be generally available until September-October.
And on that memory chip shortage, that bodes very well for pricing power at Micron (MU), which is a part of the Pro Portfolio’s EPS -All Stars strategy, and for Applied Materials (AMAT).
6. Berkshire Hathaway agreed on Sunday to buy Taylor Morrison Home Corp for $6.8 billion in cash, expanding the conglomerate’s housing business… Taylor Morrison operates in 12 U.S. states under the Taylor Morrison, Esplanade and Yardly brands, including entry-level and “resort lifestyle” housing. It ranks No. 6 among Builder magazine’s top 100 home builders. (Reuters)
This has the potential to reignite at least some investor interest in the housing market and homebuilding stocks, but this looks more like Berkshire (BRK.B) taking advantage of a challenging housing market to do an opportunistic nip-and-tuck acquisition. Market expectations have Taylor Morrison’s (TMHC) revenue falling nearly 20% year over year in 2026 with a larger 35% drop in EPS. With the 30-year fixed mortgage rate still in the mid 6%s, the savings rate down to 2.6% as of last week’s April data, and consumers still battling inflation pressures, housing stocks look more like dead money near-term or a potential source of institutional funds for upcoming IPOs.
7. Economic data today per TipRanks: S&P Global Final Manufacturing PMI (May), ISM Manufacturing Index (May), Construction Spending (April).
8. Companies reporting today per TipRanks: AM – Science Applications (SAIC), PM – Credo Technology (CRDO), Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE).
At the time of publication, TheStreet Pro was long AMAT, AAPL, CRDO, MU, MSFT and NVDA.
