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Home Forex Market
2 months ago

Nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly fell by 23,000 in July, signaling a slowdown in hiring despite unemployment declining to 4.1%

The U.S. economy shed 23,000 jobs in July, a sharp reversal that caught economists off guard and signals a cooling labor market as the year progresses. The unemployment rate ticked down slightly to 4.1%, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

The job losses came despite expectations that employers would add 83,000 to 85,000 positions in July. Government employment dropped 53,000, with the federal government cutting 12,000 jobs and local government shedding positions in education. Leisure and hospitality employment fell 40,000, extending losses from June. Retail trade lost 19,000 jobs, while financial services declined 14,000.

The weakness in July followed substantial downward revisions to prior months. May and June payroll gains were revised down by a combined 103,000 jobs, according to the BLS report. May’s initial gain of 172,000 was cut to 63,000, while June was revised to 57,000 from an earlier estimate of 94,000. These corrections mean the labor market added an average of just 26,000 jobs per month over the past year, according to Spherion.

Wage growth also moderated in July. Average hourly earnings rose 3.2% year-over-year, down from 3.5% in June and 3.4% in May, according to the jobs report. This slowdown in compensation growth, combined with the job losses and revisions, points to a labor market that has lost momentum after four months of tepid gains earlier in the year.

The report raised questions about the broader economic outlook. When comparable labor market weakness emerged in prior years—such as the slowdown in hiring seen in early 2023—it preceded a period of economic uncertainty and increased focus on whether the Federal Reserve would adjust its interest rate policy. The Fed has held rates at 3.5–3.75% since July, according to J.P. Morgan, as officials weigh inflation concerns against signs of labor market cooling.

The data underscores what labor analysts describe as a shift from resilience to visible contraction. The unemployment rate’s decline to 4.1% reflected fewer people actively seeking work rather than robust job creation, a dynamic that complicates the picture for policymakers and employers navigating an uncertain economic environment.

Sources

  • NBC News — July jobs report showing 23,000 job losses and unemployment rate at 4.1%
  • Bureau of Labor Statistics — Official employment situation summary and detailed sector breakdowns
  • Reuters — Nonfarm payroll data and May/June revisions totaling 103,000 jobs
  • Marketplace — Sector-specific job losses in government, leisure, and retail
  • RealEstateNews.com — Wage growth slowdown to 3.2% year-over-year
  • Spherion — Labor market analysis and monthly average job gains
  • J.P. Morgan — Federal Reserve rate decision and policy stance

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