Solana, which has seen a slight rally to $82 this week, is making many investors wonder if now is the right time to buy. To provide this view on Solana’s recent move, popular crypto analyst VirtualBacon says investors should first look at Bitcoin, not Solana.
While he says Solana at $80 is not a buy because it’s too expensive. Here’s why!
Every Altcoin Starts With Bitcoin
According to VirtualBacon, the biggest mistake investors make is looking at Solana without first analyzing the Bitcoin market. He believes that before deciding whether Solana is a good buy during this bear market, investors first need to understand where Bitcoin stands in its market cycle.
He says that “Altcoins do not lead the bull run, Bitcoin leads.”
For him, Bitcoin’s most important support levels are its 200-week moving average around $62,000 and its Realized Price near $53,000.
If Bitcoin falls toward these levels, he believes the market will offer much better long term opportunities.
“Before Bitcoin becomes cheap enough in your own analysis, you should not be buying Solana, and you should not be buying any other altcoin.”
He even says, “If Bitcoin gets to $53K, I am all in that because that’s extremely cheap in my analysis.”
Solana Has To Beat Bitcoin To Be A Worth Buy
VirtualBacon says that buying Solana only makes sense if it can outperform Bitcoin. Otherwise, investors are simply taking extra risk without earning better returns.
To find out Solana’s risk-reward, investors must look at the SOL/BTC chart. During the last market drop in Oct 2025, Bitcoin fell 54% from its peak, while Solana dropped 76%.
This means Solana typically falls about 1.4 times more than Bitcoin. Based on this, if Bitcoin drops to around $53,500, Solana could fall to around $65 from its current price level.
He says that level would make Solana reasonably priced, which has the potential to outperform Bitcoin any day.
Why $80 Is Not a Buy? “Too Expensive”
Despite Solana’s recent recovery to above $82, VirtualBacon says $80 is not a good price to buy Solana because it has less room for profit.
“Solana at $80 is not a buy, Too Expensive.”
As per his analysis, Solana will reach around $290 in the next bull market. But buying at $82 offers only about a 3.5x return, while buying near $60 could give around a 4.7x return.
He says the buying price matters much more for altcoins like Solana than for Bitcoin.
That’s why he believes investors should wait for Solana to fall below $60, where it would offer a better chance to beat Bitcoin.
VirtualBacon’s Buying Plan
Rather than chasing the current recovery, VirtualBacon says patience is the better strategy.
“Wait for Bitcoin to go to 53K, make a new low, and then wait for Solana to drop the 1.4x multiple on top of that, and then buy.”
In the end, even warned investors not to expect the massive gains just like we saw in previous cycles, adding,
“I don’t think there is a 10x to be had on Solana anymore.”
Source: Original Article
