The 1.12 level is an area that’s been important a couple of times, going back to September of 2024 and May of 2025, before we entered the consolidation area that we had been in. I do think that this is a situation that will continue to favor the US dollar, and rallies will get sold into for probably the first 3 or 4 months in general between now and the end of the year.
Federal Reserve Policy and Year-End Timeline Risks
It’s when we get to the end of the year that things get a little tricky, because if the Federal Reserve does, in fact, raise rates but signals that they’re done, that actually will help the Euro, assuming that the ECB doesn’t do anything. But if we get a couple of rate hikes and more uncertainty, then that will continue the downward pressure.
I suspect the truth lies somewhere in the middle, and I think we have this pair looking for a range probably lower than we are now, with maybe the 1.12 level being the focus level. If we can break above the 1.16 level and bets on the Federal Reserve raising rates start to drop, check the CME FedWatch Tool, then we could make a run towards the 1.1850 level. I don’t know that we can break above there between now and the end of the year; we’ll have to wait and see. I would anticipate that even if we did, the 1.20 level would be a massive barrier to overcome. In general, I think when you look at this for the next 6 months, you’re for the most part going to be looking to fade rallies.
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