Ethereum (ETH 0.94%) has shed about 22% in the last 30 days, with a spate of factors driving investors away during the depths of the crypto bear market.
Many holders are eagerly awaiting the next few months as a stretch where a bounce is likely. Unfortunately, their hopes are probably going to be dashed. Here’s why.
Image source: Getty Images.
The summer doesn’t usually go well for holders
Seasonality, the current macro backdrop, the crypto bear market, and Ethereum’s own problems are all stacked against a fast rebound right now. That doesn’t stop the coin’s longtime holders from wishing for a return of the chain’s most iconic summers, like the “DeFi Summer” of 2020, which saw an explosion of new decentralized finance (DeFi) projects and the rise of Ethereum as the crypto sector’s home for DeFi.
But even that period is subject to some serious rose-tinting in investors’ memories. From 2016 through 2025, July, August, and September each closed positive for Ethereum only four times out of 10. July saw a median decline of 4.2%, compared to median declines of 1.9% in August and 12.7% in September.
Today’s Change
(-0.94%) $-16.78
Current Price
$1777.00
Key Data Points
Market Cap
$214B
Day’s Range
$1751.18 – $1795.62
52wk Range
$1512.07 – $4946.05
Volume
9.4B
So history says the summer will, all else being equal, probably see Ether’s price go down more. This seasonality doesn’t guarantee that the next few months will bring more pain, as it’s just a backward-looking measure. Still, when paired with the other bearish factors in play, the near term doesn’t look good.
There’s more than one reason why sentiment about this asset is poor right now
The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady at its June meeting, and rate hikes may be on the way later in the year, given that inflation remains well above its target. That ensures that buying Treasury bonds, with a reliable yield, will be attractive relative to non-yielding, drawdown-prone assets, like Ethereum. Crypto typically struggles to grow significantly during similar periods.
The chain’s cybersecurity issues are probably even more immediately problematic. Ethereum’s DeFi segment lost more than $840 million in value across 50-plus exploits of its ecosystem projects in just the last five months. The Kelp DAO breach alone drained close to $293 million in April and subsequently triggered around $13 billion in DeFi outflows from investors fleeing to safety. The Ethereum Foundation’s new Clear Signing standard, launched in May, addresses a different class of user-side exploit and won’t have a meaningful effect on hacks like with Kelp DAO.
And to cap it all off, the crypto bear market is still in full swing. Investors were already skittish and pessimistic even before the hacks. Plus, the coin’s price is down 26% in the last five years, causing many to question whether they should be long-term holders at all.
Another leg down in Ethereum’s price could be on the way. Stay patient. This isn’t the moment to try to buy precisely at the bottom.
Source: Original Article
