Bitcoin traded near $62,000 today, surrendering part of a rebound that had carried it to $64,000 from last week’s bear-market low of $57,700. The pullback holds the price above the $60,000 level that CryptoQuant treats as support, though it trims a recovery of some 11% off the bottom.
The dip came as CryptoQuant’s Weekly Crypto Report, published today and shared with Bitcoin Magazine, argued the backdrop skews toward further gains. Head of Research Julio Moreno framed the bounce as a bear-market recovery rather than a trend reversal, with one central caution: the firm’s Bull Score Index, an aggregate of on-chain, market, and valuation conditions on a 0-to-100 scale, sits at 20, inside the bearish zone at or below 40 and short of the 60 reading tied to a sustainable bull market.
The report’s bullish case rests on seasonality. Across the past decade, July has ranked among Bitcoin’s stronger months, closing higher in most years shown.
The pattern held in the down-cycles of 2018 and 2022, when Bitcoin gained some 20% and 17% during the month as the broader trend stayed weak. Entering July 2026 off a bear-market low, the report said, that pattern skews near-term risk toward gains.
Bitcoin demand is turning
Demand has turned. The 30-day change in total demand — spot plus perpetual futures — collapsed to some -650,000 BTC in early June, the deepest negative reading since 2022, as Bitcoin fell toward $58,000.
It has since recovered toward neutral, with speculative futures demand crossing into positive territory and spot selling easing to its slowest pace since mid-May. A return to positive territory, the report said, would confirm a re-igniting demand engine.
U.S. buyers show signs of stabilizing. The Coinbase Premium Index, a proxy for U.S. spot demand, sank below zero in early June as Bitcoin bottomed near $57,000, one of its weakest readings of the year.
The premium remains under zero, though its path has tracked Bitcoin’s climb off the low and points to steadier institutional appetite.
Valuation added a floor. The on-chain trader unrealized profit/loss margin, for coins held one to three months, dropped below -24% in early June, under the -12% threshold the firm treats as undervalued. Readings at such extremes tend to mark local bottoms as short-term holders capitulate, the report said, and the margin has recovered as price bounced off $57,700.
Today’s slip to $62,000 underscores the report’s own hedge. CryptoQuant reads the market as off its lows, with improving internals but a bearish regime intact.
A durable rally, it concluded, would require the Bull Score Index to climb above 60. Until then, the firm treats the move as a recovery within a bear market, not a reversal — a framing this week’s give-back does little to challenge.
Source: Original Article
