MARKET MOVEMENTS:

–Brent crude oil is up 0.2% at $85.12 a barrel.

–European benchmark gas is up 0.9% at 55.03 euros a megawatt-hour.

–Copper futures are up 0.1% at $13,600.50 a metric ton.

–Gold futures are down 0.1% at $4,007.50 a troy ounce.

TOP STORY:

TotalEnergies Expects Earnings Boost From War-Fueled Price Rally

TotalEnergies expects second-quarter results to receive a boost from the extended rally in energy prices prompted by the Middle East conflict, but cautioned that income from liquefied natural gas will fall sharply on weaker European demand.

The French energy major said Thursday in an update ahead of its earnings that downstream results and cash flow should increase sharply from the first quarter, supported by higher refining and petrochemical margins as well as oil trading.

OTHER STORIES:

Trump Has Threatened to Bomb Iran’s Pickaxe Mountain. What Is Hidden There?

As President Trump dials up his rhetoric against Iran, he has a new target in his sights: Pickaxe Mountain, the site of a subterranean complex under construction near one of the country’s main nuclear installations.

“We have eyes on it and Pickaxe Mountain is a possible target for a nice big fat shot,” Trump told conservative broadcaster Hugh Hewitt. “Tell the Iranians to be ready.”

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Lower Gasoline Prices Cool Retail-Sales Growth

Sales by U.S. retailers rose by 0.2% in June from a month earlier, the Commerce Department said, a growth slowdown that reflected cooler gasoline prices during the Iran ceasefire. In May, sales had grown by 1%.

The monthly retail-sales numbers aren’t adjusted for inflation, so when retailers cut prices, spending totals moderate. Spending at gas stations was down by 5.3% last month, while sales at all other types of retailers climbed by a solid 0.7%.

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Five Point Seeks $2.5 Billion for Energy Infrastructure Bets

Five Point Infrastructure is seeking $2.5 billion for a new fund to invest in assets such as water management projects, natural gas treatment systems and data center locations, a strategy the firm used with two companies it took public in the past two years.

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Sales to China Drive Soybean Exports for the Week

U.S. soybean export sales landed on the high end of analyst expectations for the week, driven by the return of China to buying the American oilseeds.

In its latest export-sales report published Thursday, the Agriculture Department said that for the week ended July 9, soybean sales for the 2025/26 and 2026/27 marketing years totaled 1.96 million metric tons. That’s on the high end of forecasts from analysts surveyed by The Wall Street Journal this week, buoyed by 1.19 million tons of soybeans sold to China for the week.

MARKET TALKS:

Gold Briefly Falls Below $4,000 on Energy Price Concerns — Market Talk

1439 GMT – Gold prices briefly drop below $4,000 despite weaker-than-expected U.S. inflation, as a flare-up in tensions between Washington and Tehran raises concerns over high energy prices. New York futures fall 1.2% to $4,002 a troy ounce after slipping to $3,977.10 an ounce earlier. “Persistently high energy prices would make it difficult for the Fed to adopt a more dovish stance,” says Fawad Razaqzada from Forex.com. “That is one reason we’re seeing the U.S. dollar regain a bit of momentum again today, particularly against currencies whose economies are heavily reliant on imported energy.” The U.S. dollar index is up 0.1% to 100.64. ([email protected])

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Cattle Keep Dropping as Screwworm Stays Contained — Market Talk

1025 ET – Live cattle futures on the CME are down 0.9% in early trading, adding to a string of 13 consecutive losses. Focus remains on how New World screwworm issues develop in the southern U.S., with cases continuing to climb but remaining contained mostly to southern Texas. The USDA’s Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service says that 39 cases have been reported in the U.S. since first emerging within U.S. border last month, with 18 of those cases considered active. Except for one case, all of the cases have been reported in Texas. The latest cases are found in Pecos, Brewster, and Sutton counties, which are towards the southwestern part of the state. Lean hogs are up 0.6%. ([email protected])

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Corn Belt Heat Eases, Limiting Crop Stress — Market Talk

1023 ET – The heavy heat that’s blanketed the Corn Belt this week looks to be easing, according to the USDA’s daily agricultural weather forecast. “Today’s Midwestern high temperatures will generally remain below 95°F, limiting stress on reproductive corn and soybeans,” says the USDA. “In fact, stressful heat and soil moisture shortages are limited to far western corn and soybean production areas.” Temperatures over 95°F can be found in the northern plains, while easing in the southern plains, the USDA says. CBOT grain futures are mixed, with most-active corn down 0.3%, soybeans virtually unchanged, and wheat up 0.4%. ([email protected])

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U.S. Natural Gas Futures Gain Ahead of Storage Data — Market Talk

1001 ET – U.S. natural gas futures continue to claw back ground after their slide under $3, edging higher for a third session. Market focus is on the EIA’s weekly storage report, due at 10:30am ET. Analysts in a WSJ survey expect a 44 Bcf injection, leaving the surplus over the five-year average practically unchanged. The report “has increased significance after three straight bearish readings, although the July 4 holiday raised uncertainty,” Eli Rubin of EBW Analytics says in a note. A bullish report relative to consensus estimates “may let August retest $3.00/mmBtu.” Nymex natural gas is up 0.4% at $2.935/mmBtu. ([email protected])

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Oil Little Changed Despite Rising Risk of Prolonged Strait Closure — Market Talk

1408 GMT – Oil prices are little changed in early U.S. trade, with Brent crude hovering around $85 a barrel and WTI futures at $80 a barrel. “It feels to us that markets are still expecting that the disruption to flows will prove short-lived […] but the perceived probability of a more extreme outcome has increased,” says Neil Shearing from Capital Economics. A key reason prices have not moved significantly higher is that the departure of oil-laden tankers that had been stranded in the Strait of Hormuz for months has provided some near-term relief to supply concerns. Still, inventories cannot continue to absorb supply disruptions at their recent pace indefinitely, the chief economist says. If the strait remains closed for an extended period, oil markets could eventually reach a tipping point, triggering a sharp price spike to $120 a barrel or higher. ([email protected])

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Middle East Nations’ Credit Default Protection Costs Edge Up — Market Talk

1315 GMT – The cost of insuring Middle East nations’ sovereign debt against default rises as the U.S.-Iran conflict persists. Geopolitical tensions and oil supply disruptions are weighing on investor sentiment. Qatar’s five-year sovereign credit default swaps rise 1 basis point to 33bps, S&P Global Market Intelligence data show. Bahrain’s five-year CDS climb 6bps to 285bps. ([email protected])

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Energy Markets Looking Vulnerable Amid Shrinking Oil Inventories — Market Talk

0630 ET – Shrinking oil inventories have left global markets vulnerable, says Canada’s export credit agency. Export Development Canada forecasts oil prices will average around $96 a barrel this year and nearly $84 a barrel in 2027, reflecting ongoing uncertainty and efforts to rebuild depleted stocks as a buffer against future flareups. Stuart Bergman, EDC’s chief economist, says storage tanks scattered around the world have become the oil market’s “marginal producer.”Inventories accumulated before the crisis and emergency stockpile releases have helped offset reduced activity, but at the cost of inventories falling below seasonal norms, Bergman notes. He says a permanent agreement to end the war and restoring ship traffic in the Strait of Hormuz to pre-crisis levels would ease constraints, but oil markets remain tight and vulnerable to further disruptions and price volatility if geopolitical risks escalate. ([email protected]; @RobbMStewart)

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Oil Futures Make Moderate Gains Awaiting U.S.-Iran Moves

0958 ET – Oil futures are higher for a fourth session with the U.S. and Iran continuing strikes and transit through the Strait of Hormuz down to a trickle. The relative calm in energy market volatility comes as participants wait to see whether there’s a return to the negotiating table, rounds of broader escalation, or a continued “state of no war and no peace,” Samer Hasn of XS.com says in a note. Without a solid agreement including detailed wording on management of the strait and Iran’s nuclear program, “the risks of escalation will remain high regardless of market pricing.” WTI is up 0.9% at $80.31 a barrel, and Brent is up 1% at $85.76. ([email protected])

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Oil Steadies After Gains But U.S.-Iran Tensions Remain High

0755 GMT – Oil prices steady after three days of gains as the U.S. and Iran face a diplomatic gridlock, with fresh attacks and a naval blockade on Tehran’s ports threatening a full-scale conflict. “Although tanker traffic has continued with U.S. assistance, the escalation threatens shuttle-based export routes that had helped the U.A.E. and other Gulf producers keep crude moving during earlier disruptions,” says Soojin Kim from MUFG. Meanwhile, President Trump is leaning toward expanding U.S. military operations, The Wall Street Journal reported. Options include stepping up airstrikes and sending ground forces to seize Iranian islands near Hormuz. In early trading, Brent crude is down 0.3% to $84.73 a barrel, while WTI futures are flat at $79.62 a barrel. ([email protected])

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Iron Ore Falls; Prices Could Be Volatile Ahead — Market Talk

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