MARKET MOVEMENTS:
–Brent crude oil is up 7.5% to $79.70 a barrel.
–European benchmark gas is up 5.3% to 49.25 euros a megawatt-hour.
–Copper futures are down 1% to $13,210 a metric ton.
–Gold futures are down 2.4% to $4,055 a troy ounce.
TOP STORY:
Oil Prices Jump After Trump Says Ceasefire With Iran Is Over
Oil prices jumped 6% after President Trump said he believed his ceasefire deal with Iran was over, the strongest signal yet that diplomatic efforts with Tehran have stalled since the preliminary agreement reached in mid-June.
In midmorning European trade, front-month Brent crude futures gained 6% to $78.63 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate rose 6.2% to $74.85 a barrel. Natural-gas prices climbed, with the benchmark Dutch TTF contract up 4.8% to 49.04 euros a megawatt-hour.
Trump’s remarks came after the two sides exchanged a series of strikes and the U.S. revoked a waiver allowing Tehran to sell oil following Iranian attacks against ships near the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday. However, Trump stopped short of saying the U.S. would restart the war and said he would let talks continue if the parties were willing.
OTHER STORIES:
Gold Falls 2% After Trump Says Iran Ceasefire Is Over, Fueling Inflation Worries
Gold futures fell after President Trump said he believed a ceasefire deal with Iran was over, prompting a surge in oil prices that revived concerns over inflationary pressure and interest-rate hikes.
In midmorning European trade, New York gold futures fell 2.2% to $4,066.50 a troy ounce. In London, shares in precious-metal miners slid, with gold and silver miners Fresnillo, Hochschild Mining and Endeavour Mining all down more than 4%.
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BHP Workers to Strike at World’s Largest Iron-Ore Export Port
Workers at BHP Group’s Port Hedland iron-ore export terminal in Western Australia will hold an eight-hour strike next week, after unions failed to reach an agreement with the giant miner following months of wage negotiations.
Union officials said the strike will happen on July 16 and that workers across the company’s port operations and maintenance teams represented by the Combined Ports Unions–a group of local unions–will participate in the strike.
MARKET TALKS:
Russian Wheat Exports Expected to Rise — Market Talk
0923 ET – Russia may export more wheat in this marketing year, due to having more supply available than previously expected, says SovEcon in a note. The firm’s forecast for Russian export sales is up 200,000 metric tons to 46.5 million tons. Larger stocks being carried over from the prior marketing year are contributing to the uptick, says the firm. “Larger carry-in stocks should support Russian wheat exports in 2026/27 despite a smaller crop,” says Andrey Sizov of SovEcon. He adds that while this is true, Russia’s wheat export campaign for the 2026/27 marketing year is expected to start slow, with key buyers awash in local grains and grains from Ukraine. CBOT wheat is up 0.3% premarket. ([email protected])
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Grains Mixed as Weather Moderates — Market Talk
0907 ET – CBOT grain futures are mixed premarket as temperatures moderate off highs seen earlier this month. “It’s been a little nicer outside than what we’d seen for several straight days,” says Matt Bennett of AgMarket.net in a note. He believes traders are turning their attention towards this month’s WASDE report, which is scheduled to be published Friday. What the report shows about how hot weather is affecting domestic supply and demand will be a key focus. CBOT corn is down 0.2%, soybeans are up 0.2% and wheat rises 0.4%. ([email protected])
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Mining Stocks’ Underperformance Nearly Over — Market Talk
0338 GMT – The impact of potentially higher rates on metals and mining stocks appears largely priced in, according to Jefferies. It thinks mining share prices can begin to outperform again even if rate expectations gradually rise. The Stoxx Europe 600 Basic Resources index has underperformed the S&P by 12% since mid-June, when there was a hawkish pivot from new Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh, it says. “The risk would be if the demand outlook materially erodes relative to expectations,” Jefferies says. But that’s not what the bank is anticipating. Jefferies expects metals prices to be supported by U.S.-led industrial demand. ([email protected]; @RhiannonHoyle)
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Repsol Could Raise 2026 Buyback if Margin Strength Continues — Market Talk
1009 GMT – Spanish energy major Repsol could increase its full-year share buyback if refining margins remain strong, Berenberg analysts write following the company’s trading update. Repsol’s update shows that margin strength continues into the third quarter, they say. Market watchers already expect Repsol to increase its buyback to around 1.1 billion euros from an initial guidance of 700 million euros, the analysts write. Confirmation of an increase alongside its quarterly results would be positive, they say. Shares are up 3.8% at 22.86 euros. ([email protected])
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U.S. Natural Gas Futures Edge Up in Early Trading — Market Talk
0932 ET – U.S. natural gas futures are higher as overnight weather models add some heat to forecasts and tensions flare up in the Middle East. “The range-bound August contract appears to be deriving support from President Trump declaring the U.S.-Iran Memorandum of Understanding over and the resulting rise in oil and global LNG prices,” Eli Rubin of EBW Analytics says in a note. Increased energy risk raises the chances of a near-term test of resistance, although little change in short-term fundamentals suggests upside will likely relent, he says. Nymex natural gas is up 0.7% at $3.288/mmBtu. ([email protected])
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Crude Futures Rise On Fears for U.S.-Iran Ceasefire — Market Talk
0852 ET – Oil futures are higher after the U.S. and Iran renew strikes and the U.S. cancels the sanctions waiver for Iranian oil sales, while President Trump says he thinks the ceasefire is over. “The latest military exchanges raise the risk that talks will either stall or continue under much more fragile conditions,” Rystad Energy’s head of geopolitical analysis Jorge Leon says in a note. The move higher in oil prices shows sensitivity to any escalation around the Strait of Hormuz, he says. “Even if no sustained physical disruption materializes, uncertainty around vessel safety, insurance costs, potential delays, and the risk of further retaliation is likely to keep volatility elevated in the near term.” WTI is up 4.1% at $73.34 a barrel and Brent is 4.2% higher at $77.26 a barrel. ([email protected])
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European Energy Stocks Gain After Trump Says Ceasefire Is Over — Market Talk
0905 GMT – European energy stocks rise as oil gains on President Trump’s comments that the ceasefire deal with Iran is over. Brent crude rises 4.7% to $78.42 a barrel, while WTI futures are up 5.9% to $74.61 a barrel after climbing more than 6% shortly before. In London, BP rises 3.45%, while Shell is up 1.6%. France’s TotalEnergies is up 3%, Spain’s Repsol rises 4%, and Italy’s Eni gains 3.7%. Norway’s Equinor rises 4%.([email protected])
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Cocoa Market Expected to Remain Tight as El Nino Threatens Supplies — Market Talk
0805 GMT – The cocoa market faces another year of weather-related supply risks, with El Nino threatening production in West Africa before the sector has fully recovered from the previous harvest shock. ANZ analysts forecast global cocoa output will fall 3% to 4.75 million tons in the 2026-27 season, with further downside risk if dry conditions worsen. While cocoa-grinding demand improved in the first quarter after three consecutive quarterly declines, high cocoa prices have prompted chocolate makers to reduce cocoa content, keeping overall demand subdued. Inventories remain historically tight, with the stocks-to-grindings ratio expected to fall below 25% and global cocoa stocks still around 36% below their 2021 peak. “Inventories suggest the cocoa market’s balance will remain historically tight for years to come,” ANZ analysts say. “We expect prices to continue moving higher over coming quarters.” ([email protected])
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European Gas Prices Rise As U.S.-Iran Tensions Add to Supply Concerns Ahead of Winter — Market Talk
0735 GMT – European natural-gas prices climb above 48 euros a megawatt-hour as the latest escalation between the U.S. and Iran heightens concerns over fuel supplies ahead of Europe’s heating season. In early trading, the benchmark Dutch TTF contract rises 2.9% to 48.12 euros a megawatt-hour, up more than 10% on the week. “The European gas market continues to look tight as we move through the injection season,” Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson from ING say. Storage across the European Union is currently 50% full, well below the five-year average of 66%. Meanwhile, Europe’s LNG imports have declined as Asian buyers have increasingly turned to the spot market amid supply disruptions in the Persian Gulf, ING analysts say. ([email protected])
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London’s Miners Fall as U.S., Iran Exchange Fire — Market Talk
0723 GMT – London’s miners fall in morning trade as oil prices move higher after the U.S. and Iran exchanged fire in an escalation that could threaten peace talks. All European indexes were down at the open. Higher oil prices could fuel inflation fears and lead to higher interest rates globally. Precious metal miner Hochschild Mining drops 3.2% while peer Fresnillo slides 2% and Endeavour Mining drops 1.4%. Diversified miners Anglo American and Rio Tinto fall around 1.7%.([email protected])
Write to Barcelona Editors at [email protected]
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
07-08-26 1058ET
Source: Original Article
