Wheat, rice and cotton prices rise as climate, geopolitical risks shape commodity markets

Burhan Sansarlioglu and Emir Yildirim

Geopolitical risks and climate patterns drove a sharp divergence in agricultural commodity markets in the first half of the year, with wheat, rice and cotton prices rising strongly.

Zafer Ergezen, a futures and commodity markets expert, told Anadolu that the El Nino weather phenomenon and the economic fallout from the US-Israel-Iran conflict had led to fundamental changes in global supply chains and production costs.

Rice surged 24% on the Chicago Board of Trade amid droughts affecting harvests across the Asia-Pacific region.

Wheat rose 16.2% to its highest level since June 2024, reaching $6.8825 per bushel due to extreme drought in key US agricultural regions.

Wheat planting in the US fell to historic lows amid logistical disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and surging fertilizer costs linked to the Middle East conflict.

Soybeans rose 9.2% due to higher fertilizer prices and strong demand from China.

Cotton increased 19.5% amid frost and drought risks in the US, while rising energy costs pushed polyester production costs higher, prompting textile manufacturers to shift demand back to cotton.

Lower rainfall in parts of India reduced harvests, driving up rice and cotton prices.

Ergezen said the US-Israel-Iran conflict affected global fertilizer markets and sent shockwaves through energy markets, which in turn affected prices of essential crops.

He said El Nino had contributed to drier conditions, while reduced rainfall in Australia raised concerns over the wheat harvest, as the country is one of the world’s major wheat producers.

Prices of rice, wheat and cotton rose in the first six months of the year amid supply chain disruptions and the Middle East conflict, he added.

Ergezen said coffee, sugar, cocoa and corn prices fell significantly during the same period.

Coffee tumbled 15% to its lowest level since September 2024 at $2.3885 per pound amid rising exports from Vietnam and expectations of a record 71.9 million-bag harvest in Brazil, according to US Agriculture Department projections.

Surplus rainfall in Brazil pushed sugar prices down 1.3% to their lowest level since October 2020 at $0.1334 per pound.

Cocoa dropped 16.3%, hitting $2,846 per metric ton in early March, its lowest level since April 2023, amid weak demand and a positive harvest outlook in West Africa.

Corn fell 1% due to periodic easing of US-Iran tensions and an accelerating harvest in Argentina.