Yields move lower, but 10 year is still above technical levels

US yields are moving to new lows for the day with the

• 2 year at 4.001% -4.2 basis points
• 5 year at 4.082%, -4.4 basis points
• 10 year at 4.479%, -3.0 basis points
• 30 year at 4.956%, -0.7 basis points.

This week, the US treasury will auction 3, 10 and 30-year coupon issues as part of the Treasury’s regular refunding cycle.

• 3-Year Note (June 10): $58 billion

• 10-Year Note (June 11): $42 billion

• 30-Year Bond (June 12): $25 billion

These auctions are and could influence market yields and demand sentiment.

The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is arguably the most important benchmark in global finance, as it plays a critical role in setting interest rates across the economy. Its movements directly influence mortgage rates, auto loans, and corporate borrowing costs, making it a central driver of credit conditions.

Beyond that, the 10-year yield serves as a barometer of investor sentiment. Rising yields typically signal expectations of stronger economic growth or higher inflation, while falling yields often reflect concerns about slowing activity or increased risk aversion.

Admittedly, the yield has been up and down as traders stuggle with what may happen economically (growth and inflation).

From a technical perspective the bias is more to the upside. Looking at the daily chart below, the 10-year yield has pushed back above its 100-day moving average at 4.386%. The year’s high was 4.809% on January 14, while the low was 3.86% on April 4. The yield is also trading above the 50% retracement level of that range, which comes in at 4.335%. Last week’s dip briefly tested this midpoint but failed to sustain downside momentum. Both those technical levels point to higher yields, growth and/or inflation.

So although the yields are moving lower today, the bias is still to the upside from the technicals on the daily chart. To tilt the bias more firmly to the downside, the yield would need to break and stay below both the 100-day moving average and the 50% retracement level. Until then, the technical bias remains tilted to the upside.