Turbulent waters for investors may not ease just because it says April on the calendar.
The stock market sell-off is “not yet” nearing an end, Truist co-chief investment officer Keith Lerner told me. “We could get some relief on news of the tariff announcement, but the market’s upside is likely capped.”
Lerner downgraded his view on stocks in late February from Attractive to Neutral, just before the latest stretch of selling.
“The bigger picture is US economic [GDP] revisions are being revised lower for the first time in years,” Lerner explained. “Despite this, forward earnings estimates for the S&P 500 continue to move higher. Our view is there is downside risks to earnings given the lowering in economic estimates alongside risks to profit margin posed by tariffs.”
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At close: March 31 at 4:52:10 PM EDT
^DJI ^GSPC ^IXIC
Markets are on edge again as worries about Trump tariffs ripple through corporate America, with the threat of retaliation by trading partners against US exports adding to the potential impact of hiked duties on US imports.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) lost 716 points on Friday, for a drop of about 1.7%. At the same time, the S&P 500 (^GSPC) tumbled nearly 2%, while the Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) tanked 2.7%. The broad benchmark S&P 500 is down 5% year to date, and tracking toward its worst quarter since September 2022.
Former highfliers in the “Magnificent Seven,” such as Tesla (TSLA) and Nvidia (NVDA), continue to lag the market.
Stocks around the world continued to be under severe pressure on Monday as traders digested the latest comments by Trump on tariffs.
Trump told reporters on Sunday aboard Air Force One that his much-anticipated tariff announcement on April 2 would “start” with all countries. Markets had expected a more targeted tariff approach.
The comments sent Goldman Sachs chief economist Jan Hatzius to cut his GDP estimate for 2025 on Monday and voice more concern about a recession. His colleague David Kostin slashed his S&P 500 target for 2025 too.
Read more: What Trump’s tariffs mean for the economy and your wallet
“We expect either some negative pre-releases in the second half of this week, and / or poor guidance during April reporting season, as the economic outlook and earnings outlook look too disconnected in our view,” Trivariate Research founder Adam Parker wrote today in a client note. “Importantly, we have not yet seen any evidence that the stocks of companies guiding down or missing estimates are performing well, indicating that lower expectations are not ‘in the price.'”
