By Kirk Maltais
— Wheat for July delivery rose 1.5% to $5.43 1/2 a bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade on Wednesday, with traders adding risk premium for much of the day even with little to no adverse weather on the radar.
— Soybeans for July delivery rose 0.4% to $10.44 1/2 a bushel.
— Corn for July delivery fell 0.1% to $4.37 3/4 a bushel.
HIGHLIGHTS
Attempt at a Stand: All three major row crops staged a climb after spending the morning paring overnight gains, but fell short by the end of the day.
Speculative buyers may have been thinking about the bigger picture when looking at current grain price levels, said agricultural consultant Sterling Smith.
“Low prices do tend to attract some buyers,” he said. “The dip well off highs likely inspired some short covering.”
The jump instilled some optimism for traders, but prices again pared gains before the market closed amid a lack of risky weather in the forecast for U.S. crop areas.
Overnight Push: Grains on the CBOT turned higher overnight with traders seen covering ample net short positions for grains, betting on a weather hiccup to create constraints on what is otherwise large U.S. crops.
“It appears that speculators are willing to take a poke at the long side of corn/soybeans,” says AgResource in a note. The firm adds that the forecast for June appears “favorable,” with selling expected to return if no issue develops by mid-month.
INSIGHT
Low-Hanging Target: A trend of lower U.S. soybean sales on the export market is expected to continue this week, analysts surveyed by The Wall Street Journal this week said.
Soybean sales for the week are forecast to land anywhere from 100,000 to 600,000 metric tons, which on the low end would be close to the low figure of 178,800 metric tons across both marketing years reported last week.
Analysts say that soybean export sales are weak as interest for buyers has shifted to South America.
Slip and Slide: Prices for Russian wheat out of the country’s ports are down this week, SovEcon said in a note.
Bids for Russian 12.5% protein wheat out of deep-sea ports dropped to 16,500-16,800 rubles ($209) per metric tons, down from 16,800-17,000 rubles ($210) per ton the previous week.
The firm said that its projections for ruble-denominated wheat prices are at their lowest since September 2024.
“The main factor behind the decline was the drop in export prices,” said the firm. A stronger ruble is also a factor, as well as expectations of a strong 2025 crop.
Back Toward to the Record: Average production of ethanol in the U.S. has returned to near-record rates, the EIA said Wednesday.
The agency said that average daily ethanol production in the U.S. landed at 1.105 million barrels a day for the week ended May 30. That is up 51,000 barrels a day from last week, and also brings the average production back to above the 1.1 million barrel-a- day threshold for the first time since mid-March.
The uptick brings average production close to the all-time record high of 1.119 million barrels a day, which was set in November 2024.
The increased production comes as more drivers are expected to hit the road this summer, with an appetite to save money by using ethanol-blended motor fuel.
AHEAD
— The USDA is scheduled to release its weekly export sales report at 8:30 a.m. EDT Thursday.
— The CFTC is due to release its weekly Commitments of Traders Report at 3:30 p.m. EDT Friday.
— The USDA is scheduled to release its weekly grain export inspections report at 11 a.m. EDT Monday.
— The USDA is due to release its weekly crop progress report at 4 p.m. EDT Monday.
Write to Kirk Maltais at [email protected]
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
06-04-25 1544ET
