- Bitcoin has crashed below $75,000.
- Bettors don’t like the cryptocurrency’s chances to recover this week.
What are the chances that Bitcoin will recover after crashing below $75,000?
Bettors on Polymarket aren’t optimistic. They’re betting that Bitcoin has a 56% chance of trading below $78,000 on April 11.
“It’s likely that we’ll still go lower from here,” Carlos Guzman, analyst at crypto-trading firm GSR, told DL News. “There are no apparent near-term positive catalysts for crypto that would justify a decoupling from the grim macro situation.”
Bitcoin traded at just above $76,700 at the time of writing, after slumping below $75,000 earlier on Monday. It’s down 7.3% over the past 24 hours.
The top cryptocurrency has tumbled about 30% since Trump was inaugurated on January 20, according to CoinGecko.
The bearish bet comes as US President Donald Trump’s trade war has rocked markets, with pundits already calling today “Orange Monday” in a reference to the president’s common hue.
Global stock markets tumbled after Trump announced sweeping tariffs against everyone from rivals like China to close trading partners like Canada — as well as two islands of penguins,
Trump’s team has remained defiant. On Sunday, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick told CBS News that the White House will not postpone the rollout of the tariffs on April 9.
Trump himself spent part of his Sunday posting a video of himself golfing.
His tariffs have whacked $246 billion from the total value of crypto markets.
“Cryptocurrency markets have entered extreme fear mode,” Petr Kozyakov, co-founder and CEO at Mercuryo, told DL News.
“Trump’s tariff regime has created the real and pressing danger of a global recession and it is seemingly impossible to second guess his next move.”
Recession fears
The tariffs have also triggered fears of a US recession to skyrocket on Polymarket, with bettors putting a 65% chance that there will be a market contraction in 2025. That number was under 40% just days ago.
JPMorgan analysts say President Trump’s sweeping new tariffs could add 1.5% to inflation, tipping the economy into a recession, defined as two consecutive quarters of declines in gross domestic product.
“This impact alone could take the economy perilously close to slipping into recession,” they warned.
Trump downplayed those fears on Sunday. “I don’t want anything to go down,” he said. “But sometimes you have to take medicine to fix something.”
Eric Johansson is DL News’ News Editor. Got a tip? Email at [email protected].
