By Dow Jones Newswires Staff
Below are the most important global events likely to affect FX and bond markets in the week starting June 9.
U.S. inflation data for May will be in focus as investors watch for any signs of tariffs feeding through into prices ahead of a decision by the U.S. Federal Reserve later this month.
Further comments from U.S. President Trump on tariffs, as well as developments with Trump’s feud with Elon Musk will continue to be closely monitored.
In Asia, key economic indicators from China and Japan could shape the regional growth outlook. In Europe, eurozone trade and industrial production and U.K. gross domestic product data will be in focus.
U.S.
U.S. inflation data for May are due on Wednesday and are likely to be the highlight of economic data in the coming week.
These will be scrutinized for any signs that Trump’s tariffs are feeding through into prices.
Inflation is expected to be too high for the Federal Reserve to consider cutting interest rates just yet, although analysts expect that services inflation could show signs of slowing.
High inflation could reduce the prospects of the Fed cutting rates until later in the year. Some analysts say it might not reduce rates again until early 2026.
Economists at Barclays expect the inflation data to show “the first signs of tariff-related price pressures,” they said in a note. They anticipate upward price pressures on “a wide range of core goods categories,” including apparel, household furnishings, new cars and “other” goods.
Investors will also be looking for further signals on how the U.S. economy is faring.
Recent U.S. monthly jobs data for May showed the jobs market has so far held up better than economists had expected, easing concerns that the economy could be slowing while inflation rises.
Still, data are so far inconclusive. Recent ADP private payrolls figures were weak, as were survey data on manufacturing and services activity.
Other data due during the week include producer prices for May and weekly jobless claims on Thursday.
The Treasury will auction $58 billion in three-year notes on Tuesday; $39 billion in 10-year notes on Wednesday and $22 billion on Thursday.
EUROZONE
A quiet week will follow the European Central Bank’s 25-basis-point interest-rate cut, and Monday will be a market holiday.
Data on eurozone industrial production and foreign trade data for April are likely to be the highlight of the week as investors look to see how tariffs have affected the economy.
“Eurozone trade data for April will be key to watch for signs of the first hit to exports following the U.S. tariffs,” economists at ABN Amro said in a note. Industrial production data could also reveal “some early impact from falling exports.”
Final French and Spanish CPI data for May are due on Friday.
Government-bond supply during the week includes Germany tapping the April 2030-dated Bobl on Tuesday and the February 2035-dated Bund on Wednesday. Other issuers include the Netherlands and Finland on Tuesday, Portugal on Wednesday and Italy on Thursday.
U.K.
A slew of data in the coming week will give signs of how well the U.K. economy is faring.
These include jobs data on Tuesday, followed by gross domestic product figures for April on Thursday, alongside industrial production and trade figures for the same month.
Investec expects the economy contracted by 0.2% during April after a strong first quarter.
U.S. tariff announcements in April likely hurt the manufacturing sector, although unusually sunny weather could have boosted the services sector, Investec economist Sandra Horsfield said in a note.
Other data include the latest retail sales numbers for May from the British Retail Consortium, due Tuesday.
Attention will also focus on U.K. treasury chief Rachel Reeves’s spending review on Wednesday. Here, she will allocate the total government expenditure set out in the March budget across the various government departments over the next financial year.
The U.K. plans to launch a new September 2038 index-linked gilt via syndication during the week. It also plans to sell March 2035 gilts via auction on Wednesday.
SWITZERLAND
Switzerland will conduct its monthly auction on Wednesday.
SCANDINAVIA
Sweden and Norway hold bond auctions on Wednesday.
JAPAN
Japan’s revised first-quarter gross domestic product print, due Monday, is expected to confirm that the economy shrank at an annualized pace of 0.7%, as initially reported. With exports hit by tariffs and domestic consumption damped by inflation, Japan risks entering a technical recession this quarter.
April’s current-account balance and May’s bank lending figures will also be released Monday.
The Bank of Japan will conduct scheduled Japanese government bond purchases on Monday and Friday, covering tenors from 1-year to over 25 years. These operations are expected to support bond market liquidity. The ministry of finance will also auction Treasury discount bills and hold liquidity enhancement auctions during the week.
CHINA
China’s inflation and trade data for May will offer fresh clues on the progress of the uneven recovery in the world’s second-largest economy.
A poll of economists by The Wall Street Journal suggests that China’s consumer and factory-gate prices likely fell further last month, signaling weaker domestic demand amid looming trade barriers. The consumer price index is expected to have slipped 0.2% from a year earlier, following April’s 0.1% decline. Producer prices likely fell 3.2%, down from a 2.7% decline the previous month.
“Inflation in China remains nailed to the floor – on some measures, even well below it,” said HSBC’s Frederic Neumann. Persistently low price pressures erode profits and tax revenue and leave consumers with little appetite to spend, he said. Further signs of cooling price growth will underscore the need for aggressive stimulus to prevent deflation expectations from becoming entrenched.
Trade figures may add to the gloom. According to the WSJ poll, exports likely slowed in May, despite a tariff truce between Beijing and Washington. Chinese exports are projected to have risen 5.6% from a year earlier, compared with April’s 8.1% gain. With average U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods still hovering around 40%, many economists expect Chinese exports to fall sharply later this year unless a trade agreement is reached.
China’s imports were likely flat, following a 0.2% decline in April.
AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND
Australia is expected to have a quiet week, with bond traders focused on the National Australia Bank’s May business survey, due Tuesday.
Although the Reserve Bank of Australia cut interest in May, it refrained from a deeper cut, citing its business liaison program, which had yet to detect a significant slowdown despite the disruption caused by the Trump administration’s trade policies.
If the NAB survey shows a sharp deterioration in both business confidence and conditions, expectations for another interest rate cut in July will grow stronger. Weak first-quarter GDP and subdued inflation data have already pushed a July cut into likely territory. A major drop in sentiment could seal the case for further easing.
INDIA
India’s inflation data on Thursday will help assess whether consumer prices are continuing to ease, supporting the central bank’s recent decision to cut interest rates.
Softer inflation was a key driver behind the Reserve Bank of India’s latest rate move. May’s CPI reading is expected to confirm the central bank’s view of a broader disinflationary trend. Food prices will be in focus, as volatility in that category has been a source of concern for the RBI.
Citi Research analysts expect May CPI at around 3%. That would be steady from the prior month’s reading. “Food and beverage inflation is likely to fall to 1.9%,” they said.
On Friday, trade figures give a glimpse into the strength of exports in May. Worries about trade tariffs have clouded the outlook for Asian exports, and the RBI has said it is monitoring the risk to India closely.
TAIWAN
Taiwan’s trade data for May, due Monday, could reveal a slowdown in export growth after a strong run in recent months.
The island’s goods, particularly semiconductors and electronics, have been in high demand, buoyed by the artificial-intelligence boom and a broader tech upcycle. But tariff headwinds threaten to slow the momentum, which has likely been supported by front-loading ahead of potential U.S. trade barriers.
Economists at Goldman Sachs expect Taiwan’s exports to decline on a seasonally adjusted monthly basis in May, “normalizing from unexpected strength in the previous three months.” The pullback may be driven by a dip in U.S.-bound shipments from historically elevated levels. They forecast year-on-year growth at 23.5%, down from 29.9% in April.
Any references to days are in local times.
Write to Jessica Fleetham at [email protected] and Jihye Lee at [email protected]
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
06-08-25 1714ET
