Below are the most important global events likely to affect FX and bond markets in the week starting April 28.
The first estimate of U.S. first-quarter gross domestic product and jobs data for April will be closely watched as investors look for evidence of how much President Trump’s tariff plans have hurt the economy.
In Europe, focus will center on eurozone GDP and inflation data. In Asia, a Bank of Japan decision is due alongside a flurry of Chinese economic data.
After a great deal of uncertainty and volatile trading recently, investors will be hoping for further signs of improving trading relations between the U.S. and China.
U.S.
The first estimate of U.S. first-quarter gross domestic product on Wednesday will reveal the extent to which the anticipation of trade tariffs hurt the economy between January and March.
Weak data could add to expectations that the Federal Reserve is set to resume cutting interest rates this year.
Analysts say the GDP figures could show a contraction, although some expect that demand could have held up well enough to prevent this. The economy is expected to have been hurt by a jump in imports as businesses anticipated new import tariffs.
Economists at Investec pointed out, however, that there is a great deal of uncertainty over this data, with a “large range of estimates” from various commentators.
Friday’s monthly jobs data for April will similarly attract attention. Jobs were much stronger than expected in March and investors will be watching to see if this trend has been reversing.
“Tightening labor supply due to slowing immigration will constrain employment growth even if latest weekly data on jobless claims and job postings has remained surprisingly stable despite the tariff uncertainty,” analysts at Danske Bank said in a note.
JOLTS job openings data for March on Tuesday, ADP private payrolls data on Wednesday and weekly jobless claims on Thursday will give further evidence on the health of the U.S. labor market.
Other key data this week will be March PCE data–the U.S. Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation–on Wednesday, as well as forward-looking data in the form of the ISM manufacturing index for April on Thursday and the Conference Board’s consumer confidence indicator for April on Tuesday. The Case-Shiller house price index for February is due Tuesday.
No auctions for notes or bonds are due in the coming week but there could be a lot of focus on the Treasury’s quarterly refunding meeting.
Analysts at Barclays Research expect unchanged auction sizes. They also expect the Treasury to reiterate that it is maintaining issuance for at least the next several quarters while emphasizing that it is in no rush to start tilting issuance towards longer-dated bonds.
CANADA
Canadian gross domestic product data for February on Wednesday will be scrutinized for further evidence of a weak economy due to Trump’s tariff policies.
The big focus in Canada, however, will be on the country’s general election on April 28.
EUROZONE
The week will see the usual end-of-month flurry of data, including closely-watched inflation prints as well as flash estimate GDP data for the first quarter. Thursday is Labor day holiday in most of continental Europe.
While inflation has been on a slowing trend, GDP data will give a first insight into a full quarter of activity after Trump took office in January.
GDP data will come from Spain on Tuesday, France, Germany and the eurozone on Wednesday.
Flash estimate inflation data are due from Spain on Tuesday, France, Italy and Germany on Wednesday, followed by the eurozone on Friday.
Eurozone consumer and business confidence surveys will be published on Tuesday along with Germany’s GfK consumer climate survey. On Wednesday, French consumer spending data are due.
Friday will also see Italian, French, German and eurozone manufacturing PMI indicators for April.
Unemployment figures from Spain are due on Monday, followed by Germany on Wednesday, then Italy and the eurozone on Friday.
Belgium will hold a bond auction on Monday. Italy will launch a new 10-year BTP on Tuesday, alongside the reopening of a five-year BTP and a floating-rate note. Germany will auction a combined 2 billion euros in 2041- and 2044-dated Bunds.
U.K.
Data from the Bank of England on consumer lending, mortgage lending and mortgage approvals for March are due on Thursday, alongside the final reading of the purchasing managers’ survey on manufacturing activity in April.
The U.K. plans to sell November 2054-dated index-linked gilts on Tuesday and March 2028 gilts on Wednesday.
SCANDINAVIA
Norway will hold a bond auction on Wednesday.
JAPAN
The Bank of Japan is widely expected to keep its policy rate unchanged at 0.5% on Thursday. While the central bank is likely to hold steady for now, it remains on a rate-hike path amid strong domestic fundamentals, according to Barclays economists.
However, trade negotiations with the U.S.–particularly over tariffs–remain a source of uncertainty, the economists said. “We maintain our July rate hike call, but see risk of a delay.”
The central bank will also release its quarterly outlook on growth and prices, as well as projections for the fiscal year ending March 2028 for the first time.
Industrial production data, due Wednesday, is expected to show a 0.3% on-month decline for March, compared with a 2.3% increase in February, according to a Quick poll. Retail sales and auto sales–key indicators of consumer demand–are also due Wednesday and Thursday, respectively.
There are no scheduled Japanese government bond auctions or planned JGB purchases by the BOJ, which includes a public holiday on April 29.
CHINA
China’s official and private PMI prints on Wednesday will offer a key read on the economy’s performance in April.
The data will be the first major indicators released since U.S.-China tensions escalated into a full-blown tariff dispute.
March PMI data suggested some signs of green shoots, possibly due to frontloading ahead of tariffs. Whether that momentum has continued remains to be seen, especially with continuing volatility in U.S. trade policy announcements weighing on market sentiment.
Markets will be watching closely for any signals from Chinese policymakers on further stimulus or developments in trade talks. While Beijing disappointed markets by not announcing any large-scale support at its high-level Politburo meeting, officials emphasized readiness to roll out growth measures as needed.
Citi analysts say the Politburo’s framing of the tariff disputes as “international economic and trade combat” suggests a proactive stance. “More significant trade weakness could open the room for more easing on both fiscal and monetary front,” they said.
AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND
Australia’s first-quarter inflation data, due Wednesday, will help shape expectations for the Reserve Bank of Australia’s rate path.
ING economists expect a mixed picture, with rising food and electricity costs pushing the consumer price index higher, even as service prices moderate. Monthly inflation data from March showed easing price pressures, leaving the door open for the central bank to cut rates further.
Retail sales data, due Friday, will provide more insight into household spending trends in March. Meanwhile, developments ahead of Australia’s federal election on May 3 may also influence market sentiment.
THAILAND
The Bank of Thailand is expected to cut its policy rate on Wednesday, as economic risks at home and abroad grow.
The BOT surprised markets with a rate cut in February, citing concerns about loan growth, household credit quality and currency stability. According to minutes from the February meeting, the central bank downgraded its 2025 growth forecast to slightly above 2.5%.
Thailand now faces additional challenges, including a 36% so-called reciprocal tariff imposed by the Trump administration and disruptions from a recent earthquake in neighboring Myanmar.
“Material growth risks will likely push” the Thai central bank to ease in April, Barclays economists said.
TAIWAN
Taiwan will report its first-quarter advance GDP on Wednesday, which would likely be the last reading that isn’t impacted by U.S. tariffs. After growing 2.9% in the fourth quarter of 2024, the economy is expected to have expanded in the first quarter between 2.6% and 3.5%.
The island’s export-dependent economy–home to major chip and hardware makers, like TSMC and Foxconn Technology–is seen to be particularly vulnerable to escalating trade tensions.
Despite a 90-day pause on tariffs announced by Trump, markets remain cautious. Taiwan’s exports rose 18.6% in March, likely driven by U.S. customers frontloading purchases, ING economists said.
HONG KONG
Hong Kong is set to release its advance GDP for the first quarter and March retail sales on Friday. Investors will look for signs of a rebound as the city faces persistent domestic and external challenges.
Although the economy picked up modestly at the end of 2024, full-year growth fell short of the previous year due to soft local demand and global headwinds. The latest round of U.S. tariffs, which also apply to Hong Kong, has further clouded the outlook.
SOUTH KOREA
South Korea will release its April trade data on Thursday, followed by CPI figures on Friday.
ING economists expect exports to decline amid weaker-than-expected GDP and falling construction and equipment investment. Early trade data for April suggests a potential contraction in exports due to direct and indirect effects from U.S. tariffs. However, imports may fall even faster, likely keeping the trade balance in surplus.
The inflation report will be closely watched to see if the rate stays near the Bank of Korea’s 2% target. The benchmark consumer-price index rose 2.1% in March, and a return to target could give the central bank more room to ease policy.
–Any references to days are in local times
(MORE TO FOLLOW) Dow Jones Newswires
04-27-25 2014ET
