By Jessica Fleetham and Jihye Lee
Below are the most important global events likely to affect FX and bond markets in the week starting April 21.
Provisional U.S. purchasing managers’ surveys for April will be closely watched for signs of how businesses are reacting to President Trump’s announcement of sweeping tariffs. Equivalent surveys will also be released in the eurozone and the U.K. in an otherwise quiet week due to the Easter holidays.
In Asia, a central bank decision in China is in focus as policymakers seek ways to support the economy amid an intensifying tariff battle with the U.S. Regional CPI prints will offer clues on monetary policy paths, with Japan’s inflation data in the spotlight as it holds trade talks with Washington. Elsewhere, market watchers will track South Korea’s growth figures and a rate decision by Indonesia’s central bank.
U.S.
Markets have calmed for now after recent extreme volatility due to President Trump’s announcement of sweeping tariffs, but uncertainty and concerns over a potentially severe economic impact remain.
Trump later announced a 90-day pause on higher so-called reciprocal tariffs against most countries, although a 10% baseline levy remains in place as well as steep tariffs on imports from China.
Investors will therefore be scrutinizing early indications of how this has impacted the sentiment of businesses and consumers. In that regard, Wednesday’s provisional purchasing managers’ surveys on manufacturing and services sector activity in April will be closely monitored.
“The PMI report will be very interesting amid the growth concerns from the trade uncertainty that could show up in lower new orders,” analysts at Danske Bank said in a note.
Confidence and behavior of U.S. consumers will also be key to watch to assess the likelihood of a severe slowdown in the U.S. economy, they said.
Some indications on consumer behavior will be provided in Friday’s final University of Michigan consumer survey for April, as well as new home sales for March on Wednesday and existing home sales data on Thursday.
Other data include durable goods figures for March and weekly jobless claims on Thursday.
The Treasury will auction two-year notes on Tuesday, five-year notes on Wednesday and seven-year notes on Thursday.
CANADA
Canadian retail sales data for February will be released on Friday.
Although backward-looking, the figures will give a further snapshot of how the economy was performing ahead of U.S. President Trump’s tariff announcements.
Canada’s economy is particularly vulnerable to tariffs from its closest trading partner. The Bank of Canada left its main interest rate at 2.75% at its most recent decision following seven consecutive cuts, but stressed that it will monitor carefully all the “risks and uncertainties” facing the Canadian economy in relation to U.S. trade tariffs.
EUROZONE
Flash estimate purchasing managers indexes for April for France, Germany and the eurozone on Wednesday will be the highlight of a light data calendar.
The PMI data, a key indicator of manufacturing and services-sector activity, should give insight into companies’ outlook in light of the tariff turmoil.
“The PMIs will be the first big test of the potential impact of Trump’s tariffs announcements on growth,” analysts at RBC Capital Markets said in a note. “We will be looking carefully to see if new export orders are hit, although it may be too soon to see the full impact in April.”
Another key forward-looking indicator will be the eurozone flash consumer confidence indicator for April, due Tuesday. France’s consumer confidence survey and Germany’s Ifo business climate index, both also for April, will be released Thursday.
Germany will launch new June 2027-dated treasury notes, or Schatz, on Tuesday, with 5 billion euros on offer. On Wednesday, Germany will sell 4 billion euros in the February 2035 Bund. Other issuers include Slovakia on Tuesday and Italy on Thursday.
U.K.
Provisional U.K. purchasing managers indexes on manufacturing and services sector activity in April will be released on Wednesday. These could give a sense of how the announcement of U.S. tariffs has affected sentiment and exports.
“The obvious risk is the impact on sentiment of the U.S. tariff announcement earlier this month though we would point out that the U.K.’s services exports to the U.S. remain tariff free so the direct impact should be limited,” RBC Capital Markets economists said in a note.
Retail sales data for March and the April GfK consumer confidence survey on Friday could give indications of the tariff impact on consumers.
The U.K. plans to sell October 2043 gilts on Thursday.
CHINA
China’s central bank is expected to announce a key lending rate on Monday, as markets watch for signals on how authorities plan to navigate a tariff-hit economy.
Economists say further monetary easing is warranted, but expect loan prime rates-the benchmark for many household, corporate and property loans-to remain unchanged.
“Low inflation and strong external headwinds amid escalating tariff threats provide a strong case for easing,” ING economists wrote. “But currency stabilization considerations may prompt the People’s Bank of China to wait until the U.S. Federal Reserve cuts borrowing costs.”
The one-year loan prime rate is expected to hold at 3.1% and the five-year at 3.6%. ING does not anticipate any change to the LPR without a cut to the 7-day reverse repo rate first.
Markets will stay alert for any policy signals out of Beijing following officials’ comments that they’re open to dialogue with the U.S. based on mutual respect. President Trump has also voiced optimism, saying he is confident that a deal can get done.
JAPAN
Tokyo’s consumer price data-often a bellwether for national inflation-is due Friday and expected to reflect price hikes by companies at the start of Japan’s new fiscal year in April.
Core consumer inflation in the capital, excluding fresh food, is forecast to have risen 3.2% in April from a year earlier, up from 2.4% in March, according to a poll of economists by data provider Quick.
The Bank of Japan will release its semiannual financial system report on Wednesday, analyzing risks to the banking sector and checking for asset price imbalances.
The Ministry of Finance is scheduled to auction 2.6 trillion yen in two-year sovereign notes on Thursday. Given the tenor’s sensitivity to rate expectations, investor appetite
may be limited.
The BOJ is scheduled to conduct outright purchases of Japanese government bonds on Monday and Friday to support the country’s bond market. On Monday, the BOJ is slated to purchase JGBs with maturities of over 1 year up to 25 years. On Friday, the central bank will buy JGBs with maturities of over 3 years up to 25 years, plus inflation-indexed bonds.
AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND
Australia’s flash PMI data on Wednesday will provide insights into how tariff tensions are weighing on business sentiment.
The March release suggested declining confidence among Australian businesses about future activity, with some citing trade uncertainty as a key risk, said Jingyi Pan of S&P Global Market Intelligence.
New Zealand will report trade data on Tuesday, offering a view of export performance in March.
SINGAPORE
Investors will be watching Singapore’s March CPI figures on Wednesday for signs that core inflation continues to soften.
Goldman Sachs expects headline inflation to have climbed to 1.2% on year in March from 0.9% in February.
In its last policy statement, the Monetary Authority of Singapore cut its 2025 inflation forecasts, now seeing core and headline inflation averaging 0.5%-1.5%, down from earlier projections of 1.0%-2.0% and 1.5%-2.5%.
The central bank cited weaker-than-expected inflation in January-February and an anticipated moderation in price growth amid a softening economic outlook.
SOUTH KOREA
South Korea’s economy likely stagnated in the first quarter of 2025, according to a WSJ poll of economists.
The median forecast shows zero year-on-year GDP growth in 1Q, following a 1.2% expansion in 4Q. On a quarterly basis, GDP is seen rising 0.1%, matching the pace of the previous quarter.
Economists point to the drag from U.S. tariff tensions, large-scale wildfires and political instability stemming from the president’s impeachment as likely weighing on consumer sentiment and economic activity.
The 1Q GDP report is due Thursday
INDONESIA
Bank Indonesia is widely expected to hold interest rates steady at its meeting on Wednesday amid ongoing rupiah volatility and economic uncertainty.
Currency depreciation pressures make a rate cut unlikely for now, though easing may come later in the year, S&P Global Market Intelligence said.
BI is likely to prioritize currency stability over growth concerns, Citi Research analysts wrote. Talks between the U.S. and some of its trading partners suggest tensions may be easing, and a softer dollar could support the rupiah.
Monday’s March trade data will be closely watched for signs of volatility. A U.S. decision to move ahead with tariffs after a 90-day pause could shave 0.5% off Indonesia’s GDP this year, according to DBS’s Radhika Rao.
“While the tariff overhang remains, domestic constraints need to be ironed out to boost the recovery impulse,” Rao said.
MALAYSIA
Malaysia’s March CPI, due Wednesday, is expected to show a mild uptick in inflation-unlikely to rattle the central bank given the overall price stability over the past year.
Headline inflation likely rose to 1.8% in March from 1.5% in February, driven by modest increases in food, healthcare, and transport costs, ANZ analysts said.
Looking ahead, downside risks to inflation remain amid weaker commodity prices and slowing global growth, which could offset any impact from potential fuel subsidy cuts.
U.S. tariffs may present an upside risk, but Malaysia is likely shielded in the short term by a stable ringgit that helps limit import cost pressures, said economists at Kenanga Investment Bank.
(MORE TO FOLLOW) Dow Jones Newswires
04-20-25 1714ET
