The Philippines central bank is widely expected to cut rates on Thursday to support growth.
Cooling inflation and global uncertainties back ING’s view that more policy easing lies ahead. May’s modest inflation reading supports another 25-basis-point cut, ING said.
In April, the central bank cut its policy rate, with Gov. Eli Remolona citing trade tariffs and inflation trends, signaling more cuts to come this year.
Indonesia
Bank Indonesia’s Wednesday decision could go either way, with economists split on whether it will hold or cut.
Domestic inflation remains under control and the rupiah relatively stable, giving room for policy easing.
ING economists expect Bank Indonesia to refrain from a back-to-back cut, given the uncertainty around the Federal Reserve’s rate path. HSBC sees the central bank holding off on easing for now but still expects a rate cut as growth remains sluggish, and inflation and rupiah trends are favorable.
Goldman Sachs strategists noted that BI lowered its 2025 growth outlook in May, and recent foreign inflows into the local bond market may allow space for further easing.
Taiwan
Taiwan’ central bank is expected to hold rates at 2.0% on Thursday, with inflation stable near the 2% target and GDP growth seeing near-term upside risks on export strength.
May exports surged 38.6%, the fastest pace in nearly 15 years, driven by chip and electronics demand ahead of a U.S. tariff deadline.
Still, ANZ economists warn that uncertainty over U.S. trade policy is a downside risk to Taiwan’s outlook, especially if U.S. demand materially slows, weighing on Taiwan’s export-heavy economic model.
Singapore
Singapore will release May non-oil export data on Tuesday. April’s exports rose 12.4% year-on-year, up from March’s 5.4% gain. Markets will be watching to see if trade momentum continues amid global uncertainty.
On Wednesday, the Monetary Authority of Singapore will publish its quarterly survey of professional forecasters. In March, respondents maintained a 2.6% GDP growth outlook for 2025. Investors will look for changes to that view or inflation expectations given ongoing recession fears.
Malaysia
Malaysia’s trade data, due Friday, will give insight into how May exports fared amid tariff-related risks. Though export growth quickened in April, economists flagged signs of shifts in trading patterns, likely due to rerouting and front-loading.
UOB economists forecast a sharp slowdown, projecting export growth of just 5.0% from 16.4% in April. Imports are also expected to slow, with UOB forecasting a deceleration from 20.0% to 9.0%.
With the deadline for the so-called reciprocal tariffs from the U.S. close, risks to exports growth are seen to amplify if Malaysia doesn’t reach a trade deal with Washington.
Any references to days are in local times.
Write to Jessica Fleetham at [email protected] and Jihye Lee at [email protected]
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
06-15-25 1714ET
