USDCAD slips back after failed break above 200-hour MA

The USDCAD has been under steady pressure since peaking near the 200-day moving average on May 13 near 1.4015. That level capped the corrective rally, and the pair has been trending lower since, with last week’s low reaching 1.36337 on Thursday. A modest rebound on Friday was followed by volatile, choppy trading on Monday.

Today, buyers attempted to reclaim short-term control by pushing the price briefly above the 200-hour moving average at 1.37152, but that breakout quickly failed—marking the third consecutive rejection at key resistance (May 29 and May 30 also failed on the break). The market’s inability to sustain gains above that level reinforces the notion that upside momentum remains limited.

Price action has since retreated back toward the 100-hour moving average at 1.36814. A sustained break below this level would deepen the bearish bias and bring the focus back to yesterday’s low at 1.36688. Below that, the next key target is the May 6 low at 1.36337—last week’s bottom.

For now, buyers have repeatedly failed to generate sustained upside traction, and unless they can convincingly break and hold above the 200-hour MA, the path of least resistance remains lower. Sellers are reasserting control, with momentum favoring a continued downside push if key support levels give way.

Fundamentally, Adam notes that Canada may be inching closer to a deal with the Trump administration. Prime Minister Carney has announced plans to boost defense spending and NATO contributions, while also tightening border security in an effort to curb fentanyl trafficking. The question now is whether these steps will be enough to finalize an agreement.

Technically from the longer term daily chart below, the Canadian dollar has strengthened significantly since the initial spike higher in the USDCAD triggered by tariff announcements on February 3, which pushed USDCAD to a 2025 high of 1.47927. Subsequent tariff-related threats have failed to match that peak, allowing sellers to gradually regain control. In April, the pair broke below the 200-day moving average (green line) and remained below it throughout the May correction—signaling a shift in bias.

Currently, the price has slipped below the 61.8% retracement of the 2023–2025 rally at 1.37415, further weakening the bullish outlook. The next technical target comes in near 1.3650, where an upward-sloping trendline offers potential support. A break below that level would reinforce the bearish momentum and open the door for further CAD strength.