- Prior was +50K
- November was +56K
- Two-month net revision -17K
- Unemployment rate 4.3% vs 4.4% expected
- Prior unemployment rate 4.4%
- Unrounded unemployment 4.283% vs 4.375% prior
- Participation rate 62.5% vs 62.4% prior
- U6 underemployment rate 8.0% vs 8.4% prior
- Average hourly earnings +0.4% m/m vs +0.3% expected
- Average hourly earnings 3.7% y/y vs +3.6% expected
- Average weekly hours 34.3 vs 34.2 expected
- Change in private payrolls +172K vs +70K expected
- Change in manufacturing payrolls +5K vs -5K expected
- Government payrolls -42K vs +27K in December
- Revisions -858K
This is a big beat and the US dollar is soaring. The big benchmark revision is more than expected but the market is brushing it off because of the falling unemployment rate. Moreover, the drop in unemployment comes despite rising participation, which is a great sign.
The pricing for a June cut is down to 72% from 100% before the report.
unemployment rate
Sectors:
- Heath care +82K
- Construction +33K
- Social assistance +42K
- Financial activities -22K
- Transportation and warehousing -11K
- Professional and business services +9K
The Employment Situation report, published monthly by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, provides comprehensive data on employment, unemployment, and earnings through two separate surveys. The establishment survey measures nonfarm payroll employment by surveying approximately 141,000 businesses and government agencies representing 486,000 worksites, tracking job creation across industries excluding farm workers, proprietors, private household employees, and unpaid volunteers. The household survey measures labor force status and unemployment rates by demographic characteristics. Released on the first Friday of each month at 8:30 a.m. ET, the report is among the most closely watched economic indicators, providing insights into labor market health, wage growth, and economic momentum. The headline nonfarm payrolls figure represents approximately 80 percent of workers who contribute to GDP.
In October 2025, nonfarm payrolls fell by 173,000 jobs, revised down significantly from an initially reported decline of 105,000, as the federal government shutdown disrupted data collection. November saw a modest gain of 56,000 jobs, revised down from an initial 64,000, with growth concentrated in healthcare and construction. December brought payroll growth of just 50,000, below expectations of 60,000, with gains in food services and drinking places, healthcare, and social assistance offset by losses in retail trade. The unemployment rate held steady at 4.4 percent in December.
non-farm payrolls, monthly
