University of Michigan consumer sentiment preliminary for June 60.5 vs 53.5 estimate

• Consumer sentiment last month 52.5
• Current conditions last month 58.9
• expectations last month 47.9
• 1 year inflation last month 6.6%
• 5- year inflation last month 4.2%

This month the survery results are more positive:

• Consumer sentiments 60.5 versus 53.5 estimate
• Current conditions 63.7 versus 59.4 estimate.
• Expectations 58.4 versus 49.0 estimate
• 1-year inflation 5.1% down from 6.6% last month.
• 5-year inflation 4.1% down from 4.2% last month

The Joann Hsu from the University of Michigan commented:

Consumer sentiment improved for the first time in six months, climbing 16% from last month but remaining about 20% below December 2024, when sentiment had exhibited a post-election bump. These trends were unanimous across the distributions of age, income, wealth, political party, and geographic region. Moreover, all five index components rose, with a particularly steep increase for short and long-run expected business conditions, consistent with a perceived easing of pressures from tariffs. Consumers appear to have settled somewhat from the shock of the extremely high tariffs announced in April and the policy volatility seen in the weeks that followed. However, consumers still perceive wide-ranging downside risks to the economy. Their views of business conditions, personal finances, buying conditions for big ticket items, labor markets, and stock markets all remain well below six months ago in December 2024. Despite this month’s notable improvement, consumers remain guarded and concerned about the trajectory of the economy.

Year-ahead inflation expectations plunged from 6.6% last month to 5.1% this month. Long-run inflation expectations fell for the second straight month, stepping down from 4.2% in May to 4.1% in June. Both readings are the lowest in three months. Consumers’ fears about the potential impact of tariffs on future inflation have softened somewhat in June. Still, inflation expectations remain above readings seen throughout the second half of 2024, reflecting widespread beliefs that trade policy may still contribute to an increase in inflation in the year ahead.

The final results will be released in 10 or so days from now.

The better than expected data has not materially impacted stock prices.

US yields are moving higher despite the data and are near highs for the day:

• 2 year 3.945%, +3.9 basis points
• 10 year 4.398%, +4.2 basis points
• 30 year 4.885%, +4.3 basis points.

Gold remains elevated with gains of $47 or 1.4% at $3433. The high reached $3446.79.