1330 GMT – Base metal prices rise, with LME three-month copper up 0.6% at $8,954 a metric ton and LME three-month aluminum up 1% at $2,381.50 a ton. Copper and other base metals are rallying on President Trump’s 90-day pause of the so-called reciprocal tariffs on some countries, ING analysts say in a note. That said, there is still plenty of uncertainty as U.S. tariffs against a key metal consumer, China have been hiked to 125%, ING writes. Copper and aluminum remain down 7.7% and 4.3% in the week-to-date respectively. A prolonged trade war would harm consumer confidence, weaken risk appetite and weigh on raw material demand, ING writes. On the other hand, a protracted trade war would also raise optimism that China will implement more aggressive fiscal stimulus measures, which could cap downside risk for copper, ING adds. ([email protected])
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Weaker Dollar Boosts Grains Ahead of WASDE — Market Talk
0927 ET – Grain traders and analysts are looking ahead to this afternoon’s monthly supply and demand report from the USDA, although only limited changes to estimates are expected. What’s giving grains more immediate support premarket is the weaker U.S. dollar. The USD Index is down 1.1%, paring back strength seen after President Trump announced a 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs for most nations, with the exception of China. Today’s WASDE report is due from the USDA at noon eastern time. ([email protected])
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U.S. Natural Gas Futures Relinquish Some Gains — Market Talk
0910 ET – Natural gas futures are lower following the previous session’s double-digit jump on the U.S. tariff pause. Prices had already shown support at yesterday’s two-month intraday low, but “bullish speculator appetite for racing fully back into long positions may be limited,” Eli Rubin of EBW Analytics says in a note. “Smooth sailing is less likely than continued choppy waters ahead.” EIA storage data at 10:30 a.m. ET are expected to show an above-average injection for last week, further reducing the inventory deficit against the five-year-average and year-ago level. Nymex natural gas is off 2.1% at $3.735/mmBtu. ([email protected])
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Oil Falls More Than 3% Amid U.S.-China Risks, Uncertain Economic Outlook — Market Talk
1300 GMT – Oil prices extend losses amid fears of a widening trade war between the U.S. and China and uncertainties over the global economic outlook. Brent crude falls 3.4% to $63.22 a barrel, while WTI is down 3.6% to $60.14 a barrel. The benchmarks opened the trading session higher as U.S. President Trump’s decision to pause so-called reciprocal tariffs against several countries provided a boost to risk assets. “Markets rebounded from extreme oversold momentum levels–last seen in 2020–following the confirmed 90-day delay on tariffs,” Razan Hilal, market analyst at Forex.com, says. “However, this recovery remains challenged by key resistance levels and ongoing risks tied to the U.S.-China trade war and broader concerns over global economic growth.” ([email protected])
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Oil Gives Back Gains After Tariff-Pause Bounce — Market Talk
0838 ET – Crude futures are lower after rallying yesterday on the tariff pause. The ongoing trade war between the world’s two largest economies is bearish for the economy, and likely to preclude a large rally in oil, TP ICAP’s Scott Shelton says in a note. The 90-day hiatus “is a long time of waiting to see what happens with the rest of the world on tariffs, and short enough to keep people from investing in just about anything if their businesses are correlated with the import/export market,” he says. WTI is off 2.6% at $60.72 a barrel, and Brent is down 2.5% at $63.86 a barrel. ([email protected])
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Gold Futures Rise on Market Volatility, Lower Treasury Yields — Market Talk
1157 GMT – Gold futures rise amid wider market volatility. Futures are up 1.9% at $3,136.90 a troy ounce, nearing its all-time record of record of $3.201.60/oz set in early April. Gold has been well-supported by a weaker U.S. dollar and lower Treasury yields, SP Angel analysts say in a note. Concerns were raised Wednesday over the stability of the U.S. Treasury market, with funds forced to liquidate swap carry trades, SP Angel says. U.S. President Trump then announced a 90-day suspension of the so-called reciprocal tariffs for other countries. This lifted pressure on Treasury markets and triggered a jump in market liquidity, analysts write. However, increased tariffs on China have kept geopolitical tensions high between the world’s two largest economies, further boosting safe-haven demand for gold, SP Angel adds. ([email protected])
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Palm Oil Prices Close Higher; Tracking Gains on Soybean and Crude Oil — Market Talk
1012 GMT – Palm oil prices ended higher, tracking gains on soybean and crude oil prices, says David Ng, a trader at Kuala Lumpur-based Iceberg X. The market sentiment became more positive after Trump paused his tariff hike plans. The trader sees support for CPO prices at 4,150 ringgit/ton and resistance at 4,320 ringgit/ton. The Bursa Malaysia derivatives contract for June delivery closed 53 ringgit higher at 4,201 ringgit a ton. ([email protected]; @ivy_jiahuihuang)
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Trade Tariff Uncertainty Continues to Weigh on Energy Demand Outlook — Market Talk
0857 GMT – Trade tariff concerns continue to weigh on the global growth and energy consumption outlooks despite U.S. President Trump’s 90-day tariff freeze for dozens of countries, according to market watchers. “A pause in the most extreme U.S. reciprocal tariffs, which triggered a relief rally this week, doesn’t alleviate the ongoing risks of rising trade tensions for the global economy,” ANZ Research commodity strategists say. “Oil makes up around 33% of current global energy consumption, so it has a close correlation with world output.” Meanwhile, the market faces the risks of more OPEC+ hikes in the coming months after the group unexpectedly decided to increase output by three times the planned amount in May. As a result, ANZ revised its short-term oil-price forecast downward, projecting Brent crude at $55 a barrel and WTI at $50.50 a barrel from previous estimates of $75 and $70.50 a barrel, respectively. ([email protected])
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European Gas Price Rebounds as Tariff Pause Brings Relief — Market Talk
0755 GMT – European natural-gas prices rise in early trade as global markets rebound following U.S. President Trump’s tariff pause. The benchmark Dutch TTF contract is up 3.4% to 34.81 euros a megawatt hour after plunging as much as 8% in the previous trading. “The tit-for-tat tariffs are leading to a high level of uncertainty in the market,” analysts at ANZ Research say. Prices have been under pressure amid concerns over the impact of a global economic slowdown on energy demand and expectations that U.S. LNG cargoes would be rerouted from China to Europe in coming months due to the trade war between Washington and Beijing. Meanwhile, the latest positioning data shows investment funds sold 19.7 terawatt hours of TTF contracts over the last reporting week and were left with a net long of 126.3 terawatt hours, the smallest since May 2024, according to ING. ([email protected])
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Gold Futures Rise as Market Digests Fresh Tariff News — Market Talk
0747 GMT – Gold futures rise, benefiting from market uncertainty. Futures are up 1.6% at $3,127.20 a troy ounce, nearing its all-time record of $3,201.60 an ounce, set in early April. The precious metal was sharply sold off as investors liquidated positions to cover losses elsewhere after President Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariff announcements, but has since mounted a strong rally on the ensuing uncertainty. Trump hiked Chinese tariffs to 125% on Wednesday and announced a 90-day suspension of the so-called reciprocal tariffs for other countries, adding to the confusion and further boosting safe-haven demand for gold. If U.S.-China trade tensions persist or extend to other major partners, gold prices could continue pushing toward fresh highs–especially with geopolitical risks, inflation and monetary uncertainty in the picture, XS.com’s Linh Tran says. ([email protected])
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Oil Retreats Despite Tariff Pause — Market Talk
0735 GMT – Oil prices retreat after a brief rally as U.S. President Trump announced a 90-day pause on so-called reciprocal tariffs for some countries, while also raising duties on China to 125%. Brent crude falls 1.4% to $64.58 a barrel, while WTI is down 1.3% to $61.55 a barrel. The benchmarks settled 4% higher on Wednesday after dropping to their lowest level in more than four years earlier in the session. “While the pause offers some relief to markets, there’s still plenty of uncertainty on the trade front,” ING analysts say. “This uncertainty is still likely to drag on global growth, which is clearly a concern for oil demand.” Meanwhile, the latest EIA figures showed U.S. crude inventories rose for a second consecutive week to their highest level since July. ([email protected])
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Iron Ore Prices Rise After Trump’s Tariff Pause — Market Talk
0348 GMT – Iron ore prices are higher in early Asia trade, following a rebound in sentiment after Trump paused the hikes on his tariffs on most countries. Prices are still largely being moved by the macro uncertainties, GF Futures analysts write in a note. In the short term, the prices will remain volatile amid geopolitical tensions and trade disputes, they add. If the exports are dragged by the higher U.S. tariffs, high iron ore inventories may pressure prices lower, they say. The most-traded iron ore contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange is up 2.6% at CNY703.50 a ton.([email protected]; @ivy_jiahuihuang)
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Palm Oil Rises on Stronger Soybean Oil, Palm Olein — Market Talk
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04-10-25 1235ET
