Trump’s Gulf tour reshapes Middle East diplomatic map

Dubai (Reuters)- -Nothing captured Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s isolation more starkly this week than the image of U.S. President Donald Trump shaking hands with Syria’s Islamist leader Ahmed al-Sharaa – a man Israel has branded “an al-Qaeda terrorist in a suit.”

“He’s got the potential. He’s a real leader,” Trump told reporters after talks with Sharaa on Wednesday in Riyadh – a meeting brokered by his Saudi hosts, with whom the U.S. president agreed a slew of arms, business and technology deals. 

Trump’s whirlwind four-day tour of Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates this week was more than just a diplomatic spectacle marked by lucrative investments. 

It sealed the emergence of a new Sunni-led Middle East order – one that eclipses Iran’s shattered ‘axis of resistance’, and leaves Israel sidelined, according to three regional and two Western sources.

Amid growing irritation in Washington with Israel’s failure to reach a ceasefire in Gaza, Trump’s tour was a snub to Netanyahu, a close U.S. ally who was the first foreign leader to visit Washington after the president returned to office in January, the sources said.

The message was clear: in Trump’s less ideological, more results-driven vision of Middle East diplomacy, Netanyahu could no longer count on unconditional U.S. support for his right-wing agenda, the sources said. 

“This administration is very frustrated with Netanyahu and that frustration is showing,” said David Schenker, a former U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs under Republican former President George W. Bush.

“They’re very, very transactional, and Netanyahu isn’t giving them anything right now.” 

The sources said that the U.S. was not about to turn its back on Israel, which remains a vital U.S. ally whose support in Washington runs deep and is bipartisan.

But the Trump administration wanted to deliver the message to Netanyahu that America has its own interests in the Middle East and it does not like him standing in its way, the sources added.

U.S. patience has been strained not just by the Israeli prime minister’s refusal to countenance a Gaza ceasefire but also his objection to U.S. talks with Iran over its nuclear program, according to sources familiar with the matter.

Netanyahu’s office did not respond to requests for comment. It has made no public statements on Trump’s regional visit.   

A spokesperson for the White House’s National Security Council emphasized Trump was a friend to Israel. 

“We continue to work closely with our ally Israel to ensure remaining hostages in Gaza are freed, Iran never obtains a nuclear weapon, and to strengthen regional security in the Middle East,” NSC spokesman James Hewitt said. 

While publicly insisting U.S.-Israeli relations remain strong, Trump administration officials have privately expressed irritation with Netanyahu’s refusal to fall into line with Washington’s positions on Gaza and Iran, according to sources familiar with the matter.

Six regional and Western sources said friction between the U.S. and Israel was building before Trump’s regional trip.

The tension began when Netanyahu flew to Washington on a second visit in April seeking Trump’s backing for military strikes on Iran’s nuclear sites – only to discover, to his shock, that Trump was opting for diplomacy. 

An unbending advocate for a hardline stance against Tehran, Netanyahu was caught off guard, learning just hours before his meeting that negotiations were about to start.

In the following weeks, Trump’s declaration of a ceasefire with the Houthis in Yemen, rapprochement with Syria’s new Islamist leadership and bypassing of Israel on his Gulf visit showed how the traditionally close relations have become strained, the sources said. 

David Makovsky, a fellow at the Washington Institute, where he directs a project on Arab-Israeli relations, said Washington and Tel Aviv “don’t seem in sync on the big questions the way they were in the first hundred days” of Trump’s presidency.

GAZA PROVES DIVISIVE

During his election campaign, Trump made clear he wanted a ceasefire in Gaza and the hostages there released before he returned to the White House.

But months into Trump’s presidency, Netanyahu has continued to defy ceasefire calls, expanded the offensive, and offered no endgame or a post-war plan after 19 months of conflict. The death toll in Gaza has passed 52,900 in recent days, according to local health officials.

The war – which has sparked international outcry over the humanitarian crisis in Gaza – was triggered by Palestinian Islamist group Hamas’ Oct. 7, 2023 attack on Israel that killed around 1,200 people and captured some 250 hostages. 

Any hope that Trump could use his regional visit to cement his image as a peacemaker and announce a deal to end the bitterly divisive war were dashed.

Instead, Netanyahu – who is charged with war crimes in Gaza by the International Criminal Court – has doubled-down on his aim of crushing Hamas. Netanyahu is also on trial in Israel over corruption charges, which he denies.

As Trump wrapped up his visit, Israel launched a new offensive on Friday in Gaza. Israeli strikes have killed hundreds of Palestinians in recent days. 

Trump’s other key priority – expanding the Abraham Accords establishing diplomatic ties between Israel and Arab states to include Saudi Arabia – has also been blocked by Netanyahu’s intransigence. 

Riyadh has made it clear it will not normalize relations with Israel until the war has ceased and there is a path to Palestinian statehood, something Netanyahu rejects.

“He’s got no strategy, no day-after plan on Gaza,” Schenker said. “And he’s standing in the way.”

Publicly, Trump himself has dismissed any talk of a rift. In an interview with Fox News, broadcast after the regional visit, Trump denied being frustrated with Netanyahu, who he said faced “a tough situation” over the war in Gaza.

But Trump is forging ahead without Netanyahu. With unapologetic self-interest, the American president is driving a realignment of U.S. diplomacy toward wealthy Sunni states, anchored by oil-rich Riyadh.

One senior regional source said Trump’s visit had crowned the influential role of Saudi Arabia as the leader of the Sunni Arab world. By contrast, years of Iranian overreach – and Israel’s heavy military blows to its proxies Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon – have left Shi’ite regional power Tehran diminished.     

“Iran had the leading role; now Saudi Arabia has entered with other tools: the economy, money, investment,” the source said.

SUNNI ASCENDANCY  

Although Netanyahu led the fight against Iran, the new regional order is being shaped in Riyadh, Doha and Abu Dhabi.

These Gulf monarchies are eager to gain access to sophisticated weaponry to shield them from attacks by Iran and its proxies, as well as to secure advanced U.S. chips and AI technology. 

They have found a willing partner in a U.S. president whose foreign policy can sometimes blur with his family’s financial interests.

In Qatar, on the second leg of his tour, Trump was offered a luxuriously outfitted 747 Boeing jet, and welcomed with regal fanfare befitting a monarch. Amid a lavish ceremony, sword dances, a cavalry parade and royal banquet, Trump declared Qatar – which has provided major financial support to Hamas – was “absolutely trying to help” with the Israeli hostage crisis.

Trump’s statement struck a nerve in Jerusalem, where officials view Doha as a strategic threat bankrolling one of their bitterest enemies.

Many Israelis “don’t understand just how central Qatar has become to the U.S.”, said Yoel Guzansky, a Senior Fellow at the Institute for National Security Studies at Tel Aviv University, noting it hosts the largest U.S. military base in the Middle East. 

While its ties to Hamas make Qatar a threat to Israel, its vast natural gas wealth, financial clout and diplomatic influence have turned it into an indispensable ally to Washington, Guzanksy added.

In total, the White House estimated the tour secured more than $2 trillion in investment commitments for the U.S. economy – including major orders of Boeing planes, deals to buy U.S. defense equipment, data and technology agreements. A Reuters tally of publicly announced deals put the total value at closer to $700 billion.

In Saudi Arabia, Trump agreed a record $142 billion arms deal with Riyadh, stoking Israeli fears over losing air superiority in the region if Riyadh gains access to Lockhead’s F-35 jet. 

At the same time, in a recalibration of U.S.-Saudi ties, Trump offered Riyadh leeway on establishing relations with Israel, telling its rulers they could do so in their own time. 

Now, Trump is negotiating a US-led civil nuclear investment for Saudi Arabia – another deal causing concern in Israel.

Sunni states also pushed their own diplomatic agenda. Trump’s surprise announcement during his tour that he would lift sanctions against Syria – another major shift in U.S. policy – came at the behest of Saudi Arabia and over the objections of Israel.

Until December, when Sharaa toppled Syrian autocrat Bashar al-Assad, Washington had a $10 million reward for his capture.

Gulf nations have also applauded Trump’s truce with the Houthis in Yemen, part of Iran’s regional ‘axis of resistance’, which put an end to a costly U.S. military operation in the Red Sea. The announcement, which followed the opening of nuclear talks with Iran, came just two days after a Houthi missile struck Israel’s Ben Gurion Airport.

“Israel is more and more looking like a spoiler, that stands in the way not just of the US, but the international community, as it tries to shape the region differently after the fall of al-Assad and Hezbollah, and maybe end the Gaza war,” said Guzansky, a former coordinator of Iran-Gulf affairs at Israel’s National Security Council.

While Netanyahu’s right-wing government has maintained silence on Trump’s visit, Israeli media has voiced concern that the country’s standing with its most important ally has been eroded.

Opposition politicians have criticized the prime minister for leaving Israel sidelined while old alliances are reconfigured.

Former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett, who is preparing a return to politics, delivered a blistering indictment of Netanyahu’s government, capturing the sense of alarm gripping many in Israel’s political and security establishment.

“The Middle East is undergoing tectonic changes before our eyes, our enemies are getting stronger, and Netanyahu…and his gang are paralyzed, passive, as if they don’t exist,” the former prime minister and minister of defense said on social media platform X. 

(Reporting by Samia Nakhoul in Dubai and James Mackenzie in Jerusalem; Additional reporting by Matt Spetalnick in Washington, Tom Perry and Laila Bassam in Beirut; Writing by Samia Nakhoul; Editing by Daniel Flynn)

By Samia Nakhoul, James Mackenzie