The Trump 2.0 stock market is off to one of the worst starts of any presidency since 1950.
New data crunched by SunDial Capital Research strategist Jason Goepfert on Wednesday shows the market’s response to President Trump since the inauguration is among the bottom of all presidents since 1950. In the first 50 trading sessions since Inauguration Day, the S&P 500 (^GSPC) has dropped about 6.4%.
The only two worse starts were Richard Nixon’s first 50 days (-7.2%) and George W. Bush’s (-13.6%).
The best 50-day starts are held by John F. Kennedy (+9.4%), Barack Obama (+5.7%), and Bill Clinton (+4.2%).
Rough starts are a “bad open” for stocks when zooming out, warns Goepfert.
The S&P 500’s median return six months after negative returns in the first 50 days was -1.9%. Even a year later, it was flat. Only four of the 10 instances showed a larger maximum gain than loss over the following year.
“While it is generally foolhardy to assign political motives to stock movements, the correlation seems pretty clear in this case. The new administration’s take on tariffs has not impressed the stock market, which overshadows what is perceived as a bevy of more business-friendly policies. Whether the tariffs will take effect in announced form is guesswork,” said Goepfert.
As of 1:20:05 PM EDT. Market Open.
Trump is expected to unveil his new tariffs on what he calls “Liberation Day” after the market closes today around 4:00 p.m. ET. How tariffs shake out is anyone’s guess.
The administration has floated everything from a 20% universal tariff to ones that are more sector-based. Administration officials said Tuesday the tariffs would take effect immediately but hinted Trump would be open to negotiating them lower.
Watch: AMD CEO warns about impact of tariffs on semis
A 25% US tariff on imports of steel and aluminum from all countries already took effect on March 12.
Fresh tariffs would arrive as other countries have fired back.
China has implemented a 15% tariff on US chicken, wheat, corn, and cotton products and an additional 10% tariff on sorghum, soybeans, pork, beef, seafood, fruits, vegetables, and dairy products. Canada has announced a 25% tariff on 30 billion Canadian dollars of US imports.
Market pros think tariffs could squeeze the economy and send stock prices even lower.
“I don’t think the effect of tariffs is fully priced into markets,” BCA Research chief strategist Peter Berezin told me on Yahoo Finance’s Opening Bid podcast (clip above). “If you look at what’s happened to stocks this year, they have gone down, but they’ve gone down primarily because of the Magnificent Seven stocks. If you look at the other 493 companies, they’re basically flat for the year. That’s not what you would expect from a market that has priced in a recession.”
