The US stock market is little changed. The US yields are higher by about 3-4 basis points after falling by 10 or so basis points yesterday (last week yields did move sharply higher). For the US the dollar is mixed vs the major currencies – the EUR, JPY and GBP.
For the EURUSD the price action this week is up and down in a narrow trading range (64 pip range vs 125 average over the last month of trading). The key support comes in the 1.1270-75 area.; Move below tilts the short-term bias lower with more work at the 38.2% of the move up from last weeks low at 1.12495 adn the rising 100- hour MA at 1.1233.
The USDJPY is also in a narrow up and down trading range (91 pips vs 189 pip average over the last month). The bias is lower with the 100 hour MA at 144.189 as resistance and 142.07 as the close support. Traders are looking for a break with momentum now.
The GBPUSD is higher and extended to a new high for 2025 above 1.32067. The simple rule is stay above and the buyers are in control with upside probing expected. On the topside the pair is getting nearer to the 2024 highs at 1.3433 which are the highest levels since February 2022.
The US stocks are now modestly lower in pre-market trading despite mostly “beats” in the major earnings this morning. Looking at the major earnings releases:
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Citigroup Inc (C) Q1 2025 (USD): EPS $1.96 (BEAT; exp. $1.86), Revenue $21.6B (BEAT; exp. $21.29B)
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Bank of America (BAC) Q1 2025 (USD): Adj. diluted EPS $0.90 (BEAT; exp. $0.82), Revenue net interest expense $27.37B (BEAT; exp. $27.11B)
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PNC Financial Services (PNC) Q1 2025 (USD): EPS $3.51 (BEAT; exp. $3.39), Revenue $5.45B (MISS; exp. $5.49B); maintains guidance
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Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) Q1 2025 (USD): Adj. EPS $2.77 (BEAT; exp. $2.61), Revenue $21.89B (BEAT; exp. $21.55B); boosts dividend +4.8% to $5.20/shr
Shares of Citigroup are up 0.60%, Bank of America are up 1.72%, PNC are near unchanged and J & J are down -1.20%
The stock futures of the major indices are showing modest declines:
- Dow industrial averages down -73 points
- S&P index -4.47 points
- NASDAQ index -1.73 points
Looking at the US debt market:
- 2-year yield 3.838%, +0.7 basis points
- 5-year yield 4.008%, +1.0 basis points
- 10 year yield 4.379%, +1.6 basis points
- 30 year yield 4.825%, +2.7 basis points.
Fed’s Bostic spoke after the close yesterday at a moderated discussion at Emory University. Bostic offered a sobering assessment of the U.S. economic outlook, emphasizing persistent inflation and growing uncertainty. He noted that the “range of possible outcomes has multiplied” and admitted that the traditional boundaries of policy expectations have been “blown up.” While the labor market remains effectively at full employment, inflation is still significantly above the Fed’s 2% target. As a result, Bostic said the Fed is “not in a position to move boldly in any direction,” citing a need for more clarity amid what he described as a “thick fog.”
Bostic said the economy is currently in a “big pause,” with businesses and households hesitant to commit to major investments. He flagged tariffs as an added inflationary force that will likely delay progress toward the Fed’s inflation goals. Though he still sees growth above 1% this year, he emphasized that much depends on the direction of U.S. fiscal and trade policies. On immigration, he acknowledged some sector-specific labor shortages, such as in construction, but no broad labor market impact. He also pushed back against protectionist rhetoric, arguing that revitalizing U.S. manufacturing will require more than “just putting up walls” — it would take engineering and deeper structural investment.
Bostic’s remarks reflect a central bank official grappling with a complex and rapidly evolving landscape. While cautious about rate cuts due to high inflation, he is equally mindful of the economic drag caused by policy uncertainty and trade barriers.
On tariff news, an EU spokesperson said that the EU needs additional level of engagement by the US to keep trade talks going. Meanwhile ZEW sentiment index for April were weaker and -40.0 versus 9.5 estimate. Previous 51.6
On US soil, Nvidia announced a $500 billion investment in the US. Pres. Trump posted this morning:
“Nvidia commits 500 billion dollars to build AI supercomputers, plus, in the United States, exclusively. This is very big and exciting news. All necessary permits will be expedited and quickly delivered to Nvidia, as they will to all companies committing to be part of the Golden Age of America”
The pledges keep on coming in as fears of tariffs force the hand to onshore production. Crude oil is trading down $0.50 at $61.05. Gold is up $9.50 or 0.29% at $3220. Bitcoin is trading up $1000 and $85,550.
