The USD is mixed vs 3 major currency pairs to kickstart US trading on June 10. What next?

The USD is little changed and mixed to start the trading day and as the 2nd day of the US/China talks get underway in London. Commerece Sec. Lutnick was on the wires saying the discussions are “going well” and were “fruitful”.

Tomorrow US CPI will be a key release for the week in the US. In other event news today,and this week the US treasury will auction 3, 10 and 30 year coupon issues starting with the 3 year note today at 1 PM ET.

Below are the changes of the major currencies vs the US dollar. The biggest move is the GBP with a rise of 0.30% (GBPUSD is lower by that amount today). The EURUSD and the USDJPY are little changed in what has been up and down trading for those two pairs.

• EUR: -0.11%

• JPY: -0.06%

• GBP: +0.30%

• CHF: -0.07%

• CAD: -0.04%

• AUD: -0.08%

• NZD: -0.13%

IN the video above, I take a look at the three major currency pairs from a technical perspective including the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD. Although the major pairs are relatively little changes (although the USD is higher by 0.30% vs the GBP), there has been up and down volatility along the way.

This morning in the US, The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index rose to 98.8 in May, beating expectations of 95.9 and up from 95.8 in April, slightly above the 51-year average of 98. The increase was primarily driven by more positive expectations for business conditions and sales growth. However, uncertainty remains elevated, with the Uncertainty Index rising two points to 94. Notably, 18% of small business owners cited taxes as their top concern, the highest reading since December 2020. According to NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg, while optimism improved, the economy remains vulnerable amid ongoing policy and economic uncertainty.

In the US Debt market, the yields are little changed to start the US session:

• US 2Y T-Note: 3.9868% (↓1.6 bps)

• US 3Y T-Note: 3.9632% (↓2.0 bps)

• US 5Y T-Note: 4.0610% (↓2.6 bps)

• US 10Y T-Note: 4.4500% (↓3.4 bps)

• US 30Y T-Bond: 4.9111% (↓4.3 bps)

The U.S. Treasury kicks off this week’s coupon supply with a $58 billion 3-year note auction on Tuesday, marking the first leg of a busy midweek schedule. This will be followed by a $39 billion 10-year note reopening on Wednesday and capped off by a $22 billion 30-year bond reopening on Thursday. The auction slate will provide key insight into investor appetite for duration amid softening yields and shifting expectations around Federal Reserve policy. The focus will be on demand metrics such as bid-to-cover ratios and foreign participation, particularly as the longer-dated paper often reveals sentiment around inflation and growth prospects. There may be a redirection of foreign funds as a result of auctions as well. The key auction will be the 10 year as it is an influence on corporate borrowing as well as consumers with mortgages, car loans and other consumer credit loans hinging on that rate.

In the US stock market,t he major indices are now trading higher with the futures currently implying:

• Dow Industrial Average +15 points
• S&P index up 8.62 points
• Nasdaq index up 35 points

Bitcoin extended to a high of $110,352 and toward the $112,000 all-time high but has backed off and currently trades at $109,500. Crude oil is stretching toward its 100-day MA at $66.17. The high reached $65.71 so far today, with the current price trading at $65.60, up about $0.30 on the day.

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