The USD is little changed to start the holiday week. US jobs on Thursday ahead of July 4

The USD is mostly flat heading into the U.S. session, with USDJPY showing the most movement, down around 0.25%. Despite the decline, the pair remains above a key moving average support level, keeping downside momentum in check.

The EURUSD is little changed after reaching a new multi-year high on Friday, breaking above a swing area between 1.1663 and 1.1691. That zone now acts as close support—holding above it keeps buyers firmly in control.

Similarly, GBPUSD hit a multi-year high last week at 1.3770, just above the 50% retracement of the 2014–2022 decline. Sellers are leaning against that resistance, but the rising 100-hour moving average and swing area near 1.3684 will be key for downside potential. Today’s low of 1.3691 held above that support, reinforcing buyer control as the pair trades near multi-year highs.

In the video, I go through the technicals that are driving those 3 major currency pairs to kickstart the Monday trading in the US.

In other news, ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos acknowledged that the eurozone is facing “brutal uncertainty,” with Q2 and Q3 growth expected to be nearly flat and consumption failing to drive recovery. He said the current interest rate stance is appropriate and has helped deliver a notable deceleration in services inflation, contributing positively toward the ECB’s 2% inflation target. However, he emphasized the need to keep all policy options open due to ongoing uncertainty. He also touched on global dynamics, noting that doubts about the U.S. economy are impacting the dollar and suggesting the euro could become a reserve currency if Europe acts wisely. De Guindos expressed hope for a US-EU trade agreement by July 9, and contrasted the ECB’s proactive rate cuts with the Fed’s more cautious, unchanged stance amid global trade tensions.

Former President Donald Trump stated that he is not offering Iran anything and has had no communication with them since their nuclear facilities were destroyed. In a message directed at Senator Chris Coons, Trump criticized the previous Obama administration for providing Iran with billions of dollars under the now-expired JCPOA nuclear deal, which he called a mistake.

He also announced on Truth Social that the “great big beautiful bill.” Is progressing nicely. He claimed his administration has significantly lowered costs for American consumers and described the effort as unprecedented. The Senate is set to begin a “vote-a-rama” process at 9:00 a.m. ET, allowing for unlimited amendments, followed by a final vote. Trump is pushing for the bill’s passage before July 4th, though markets appear to have largely priced in its outcome.

Finally, on trade:

• Japan’s trade negotiator Ryosei Akazawa stated that talks with the U.S. are ongoing, emphasizing Japan’s commitment to reaching an agreement while protecting its national interests. He declined to comment directly on former President Trump’s recent remarks accusing Japan of unfair auto trade practices and urging Japan to increase energy imports from the U.S. Akazawa noted that mutual understanding improves with each round of discussions.
• Canada officially rescinded its Digital Services Tax in an effort to advance broader trade negotiations with the U.S. The move follows President Trump’s earlier cancellation of trade talks, which Adam suggested was likely strategic posturing. In response, Canada appears ready to compromise, aiming for a trade deal by July 21. The Canadian dollar saw a slight boost following the announcement, but has given up some of those gains..

US stocks are higher after the S&P and Nasdaq indices closed at new record highs on Friday.

• Dow is up 256 points
• S&P is up 27 points
• Nasdaq is up 147 points

In the US debt market, yields are lower by a few basis points:

• 2-year yield 3.727%, -1.3 basis points
• 5-year yield 3.802%, -2.8 basis points
• 10-year yield 4.249%, -3.4 basis points
• 30-year yield 4.805%, -4.1 basis points