The technicals that are driving the 3 major currency pairs a day after the FOMC

It is a holiday in the US today (Juneteenth) and the bond and stock markets are closed along with federal and state offices and banks. There are not economic releases scheduled for the day.

It is also the day after the FOMC kept rates unchanged with Chair Powell stating that:

• Goods inflation is starting to rise and is expected to increase further due to delayed tariff effects.

• Many companies plan to pass some or all of the tariff costs on to consumers.

• Near-term inflation may climb, but it is generally expected to ease—though not guaranteed.

• Uncertainty peaked in April and has since declined.

• Multiple rate path projections exist, but none are held with strong conviction.

• Forecast differences should shrink as more data becomes available.

• The solid state of the economy gives the Fed room to wait before making further policy moves.

• Labor supply is shrinking due to lower immigration, while reduced demand is helping to keep unemployment stable.

• Powell described the overall outlook on tariffs and inflation as more positive and constructive.

There have been two other central bank decisions with the SNB cutting rates by 0.25% to 0.0%:

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) cut its key policy rate by 25 basis points to 0% in its June decision, as expected, returning to a zero interest rate environment. The SNB cited decreased inflationary pressures and a deteriorating global economic outlook driven by heightened trade tensions. It maintained its GDP forecast for 2025 at 1.0% to 1.5%, while slightly lowering its 2026 outlook to the same range from a prior estimate of 1.5%. Inflation forecasts were also revised downward, with 2025 CPI now seen at 0.2% (from 0.4%) and 2026 at 0.5% (from 0.8%). The bank reiterated its readiness to intervene in foreign exchange markets if needed and signaled that it would continue to closely monitor economic developments, adjusting policy as necessary. The overall tone reflects caution amid persistent uncertainty in both domestic and global conditions.

SNB Chair Schlegel acknowledged that

• Switzerland is approaching negative interest rate territory.

• Any move to negative rates would be taken cautiously due to known side effects.

• The cut to 0% aims to counter falling inflationary pressures.

• Negative rates were useful in the past, but their downsides are well understood.

• Policymakers highlighted high global uncertainty driven by rising trade tensions.

• Trade tensions have weakened both global and Swiss economic outlooks and increased market volatility.

• The 0% rate environment is beginning to pressure bank profitability.

• Despite this, the SNB believes Swiss banks can operate effectively at 0% rates.

• The SNB remains open to all policy options and will adjust as needed.

• The bank reiterated its focus is on monetary policy—not managing exchange rates.

The BOE meanwhile kept rates unchanged with 3 members opting to ease (6 wanted to keep rates unchanged).

The BOE noted that UK GDP growth remains weak and the labor market continues to loosen. While inflation risks are seen on both sides, the Committee emphasized that monetary policy needs to stay restrictive for a while longer to ensure inflation returns sustainably to the 2% target. Policymakers reiterated that future decisions will be made on a meeting-by-meeting basis, without a preset course. The overall tone suggests a cautious approach to easing, with a potential rate cut in August remaining on the table depending on incoming data and global developments.

The European stock markets are trading lower across the board:

• German DAX -0.51%
• France’s CAC, -0.82%
• UK’s FTSE 100 -0.35%
• Spain’s IMAX -0.60%
• Italy’s FTSE MIB -0.56%

crude oil is trading up $1.02 at $74.51. Gold prices are little changed at $3371.21 and Bitcoin is also little changed at $104,770.