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CNN
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The US stock market is on track for its worst first 100 days of any presidential term since President Gerald Ford assumed office in 1974.
The stock market initially surged higher after President Donald Trump’s reelection in November on expectations for a pro-business boom. Yet nearly 100 days into Trump’s second term, Wall Street has been shaken by historic levels of uncertainty and volatility because of tariffs.
The S&P 500 is down more than 7.8% and has shed about $3.93 trillion in market value since Trump’s inauguration on January 20.
The Dow on Tuesday morning was up 40 points, or 0.1%. The broader S&P 500 fell 0.3% and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite slid 0.4%.
“Given the ongoing uncertainty around US trade policy and the economic outlook more broadly, we suspect the going will get tougher from here,” said Jonas Goltermann, deputy chief markets economist at Capital Economics, in a Monday note.
As of Trump’s second term, the S&P 500 is set for the third-worst performance during the first 100 days of any presidential term in US history, following only President Richard Nixon and Ford.
The market’s performance for the first 100 days will be set at market close on Tuesday. If the S&P 500 rallies 1% or more, it would be the fourth-worst performance for the first 100 days, beating out President George Bush’s first term, when the index fell 6.9%.
“Policy is overshadowing key fundamentals,” said Terry Sandven, chief equity strategist at US Bank Wealth Management Group. “We could still have some weakness in front of us, but at a minimum, we’ve got volatility until visibility around tariffs starts to improve.”
The stock market has been on a rollercoaster this year, whipsawing at the whims of Trump’s back-and-forth decisions on tariff policy.
The S&P 500 hit a record high in February before sliding into correction in March as Trump began to roll out his plan for tariffs. The S&P 500 plummeted in early April after Trump unveiled his so-called “Liberation Day” tariffs, hitting its lowest point of the year on April 8, when it was on the cusp of entering a bear market.
The market has regained some ground since but the S&P 500 is still down 2.5% from where it was before Trump unveiled his “reciprocal” tariffs on April 2.
“I don’t remember a time when a policy was so directly aimed at economic outcomes, where it was received so negatively, universally by the investment community,” said Kelly Bouchillon, senior partner at Sound View Wealth Advisors. “It’s the most uncertainty I think we’ve seen around corporate earnings and growth in sometime, all self-inflicted by the administration.”
The Magnificent Seven tech stocks, which boosted the market to record highs in 2024, have broadly slumped this year. Apple (AAPL) is down 16% this year. Nvidia (NVDA) is down 19%. Tesla (TSLA) is down 29%.
Amazon (AMZN), which has tumbled 14% this year, dropped 1.8% Tuesday morning after a report from Punchbowl News that the e-commerce giant would begin listing how much of an item’s price represents the added cost of tariffs. White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt called the move a “hostile and political act.” CNN has reached out to Amazon for comment.
The best performers in the market this year have been have been tobacco and gold, according to CFRA Research. Newmont Corporation (NEM), a gold mining company, is up 45% this year. Phillip Morris (PM), the tobacco giant, is up 40%.
Meanwhile, AI and tech company Palantir (PLTR) has soared 51% this year, making it the best-performing stock in the S&P 500 after gaining about 340% in 2024.
The Nasdaq, which entered a bear market on April 4, is down 11.5% since Trump’s inauguration. The Dow is down 7.5% since Trump’s inauguration.
While stocks have been volatile, US Treasuries have emerged as a notable loser in Trump’s first 100 days in office.
Typically, when investors sell off stocks in times of uncertainty, they park their cash in US Treasuries, seeking the safety of an asset backed by the full faith and credit of the US government.
Yet as stocks declined around the world in early April, investors abruptly sold off US Treasuries, raising questions about how much they value US government bonds as a haven.
The yield on the 10-year Treasury note has come down to 4.22% since spiking in early April, but the recent volatility has unnerved investors.
“The prospect of foreign investors reducing exposure to US assets amid concerns about the continued predominance of US Treasuries as a safe haven has been at the center of market debate over the last few weeks,” said Vishwanath Tirupattur, a strategist at Morgan Stanley, in a Monday note.
A decline in the dollar this year has sparked debates on Wall Street about the stability and preeminence of US financial markets.
The US dollar index, which measures the dollar’s strength against six foreign currencies, has tumbled 8.5% this year. The dollar index on April 21 hit its lowest level in three years.
After Trump’s election in November, the dollar pushed higher on expectations for economic growth. The swift decline in the dollar has raised questions about investors’ confidence in the United States. The Euro has gained 9% against the dollar this year.
“That trend of a weaker currency and money flowing into non-US assets does stand out to me as being maybe something that’s going to be a little bit more persistent going forward,” said Joe Zappia, co-chief investment officer at LVW Advisors.
Some winners across Trump’s first 100 days have been stocks overseas, which have been buoyed by investors reconsidering their allocations to US assets.
US markets this year have underperformed markets in Europe, South America and Asia, and the theme of selling American assets has recently captivated some global investors and analysts on Wall Street.
Bank of America’s latest global fund manager survey showed the largest number of global investors on record intending to decrease holdings of US stocks.
Germany’s DAX index is up 12% this year. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index is up 9.7% this year.
The Trump administration’s trade policy has raised concerns about US economic growth and caused global investors to rethink their exposure to the US, Arun Sai, senior multi-asset strategist at Pictet Asset Management, told CNN.
“If you’re a European investor, you will now think twice about allocating strategically to the US,” Sai said. “The S&P 500 is no longer the only game in town.”
Trump’s trade policy has injected historic levels of volatility into the stock market.
The CBOE Volatility Index, Wall Street’s fear gauge, spiked sharply this year, hitting levels not seen since the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic.
The VIX closed at 52 points on April 8. The VIX has only closed above 50 twice before this month: in March 2020 and during the 2008 financial crisis.
The VIX has declined in recent weeks but is still trading above 20 points, the level associated with heightened volatility.
Gold has emerged as the champion of Trump’s first 100 days.
The yellow metal has soared about 26% this year, smashing through record highs and briefly surpassing $3,500 a troy ounce.
Investors have flocked to gold as a safe haven given the uncertain outlook of Trump’s tariffs and the US-China trade war. Bullion is historically a haven during times of economic and geopolitical uncertainty.
The most crowded trade in April was gold, according to the Bank of America survey, breaking a two-year streak for the Magnificent Seven tech stocks.
This is a developing story and will be updated.
