EURUSD technicals
EURUSD moved higher during the U.S. session, pushing away from the 100- and 200-hour moving averages and briefly breaking above the swing area between 1.0848 and 1.0859. However, the upside momentum fizzled, and the pair has since fallen back within that zone. Despite the pullback, buyers still hold the advantage, with the pair remaining above both the 100/200-hour MAs and the 200-day MA.
Last week’s low found support at the 200-day moving average at 1.0731, which also aligns closely with the 38.2% retracement of the move from February 28, reinforcing the significance of that level. To shift control back to sellers, the price would need to drop below the 100/200-hour MAs, followed by a break beneath the 1.0776–1.0760 zone. Below that, focus would turn to the key support between 1.0727 and 1.0731 (200-day MA and 38.2% retracement).
On the upside, the March highs between 1.0936 and 1.0951 serve as the next major resistance zone. A break above that level could trigger a fresh upside squeeze, even amid broader economic uncertainty, including trade tensions. Encouragingly for the euro, there’s growing awareness in Europe of the need for increased fiscal spending, particularly in defense, and the urgency to become more economically competitive.
USDCAD has experienced volatile swings in both directions, largely influenced by shifting trade and tariff rhetoric. The most dramatic spike occurred when the pair surged to a high of 1.4793 following the announcement of 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada over border and fentanyl trafficking concerns. That tension eased as Canada (and Mexico) responded by increasing border personnel, which helped de-escalate the situation. While it’s unclear what will be considered “enough,” the initial fears over fentanyl smuggling appeared to give Canada some reprieve.
Since then, additional tariff-related headlines—such as proposed duties on autos and auto parts—have had a more muted impact. On the downside, occasional positive developments or hopes regarding tariffs have pressured the pair, with brief moves below the 38.2% retracement at 1.4269, though downside momentum has failed to sustain. Notably, the recent lows near 1.4238 (seen on March 6 and March 26) have helped define a firm floor.
From a technical standpoint, price has largely oscillated within a value area between 1.4236 and 1.4540—a range that has contained most trading since mid-December. Just above the lower end of that range sits the rising 100-day moving average at 1.4272, with the 38.2% retracement (1.4269) just below. A sustained break beneath these levels could open the door to further downside, with the next key support seen near 1.4195–1.4183, followed by the February lows around 1.4149–1.4166.
On the topside, resistance is layered, starting with the 100- and 200-bar moving averages on the 4-hour chart between 1.4325 and 1.4340. A break above that zone would shift the focus to the 1.4403–1.4412 area, followed by the swing high between 1.4448 and 1.4471. A move through that range opens the path toward a retest of the March 4 high at 1.4540.
GBPUSD, much like EURUSD, has been trading within a well-defined consolidation range since early March, as seen in the red box on the chart. This range is bounded by a low at 1.2860 and a high at 1.3014, with the 100-hour and 200-hour moving averages currently positioned at 1.2934 and 1.2928, respectively.
Earlier in the North American session, these moving averages acted as solid support, giving buyers the confidence to push the pair higher. The price is now trading in a swing area between 1.2970 and 1.2988, just below the March high at 1.3014.
A break above 1.2988, followed by a move through the March high at 1.3014, would open the door to further upside momentum. On the flip side, if the price falls back below 1.2970 with conviction, sellers may look to retest the 100- and 200-hour moving averages.
A break below those averages could trigger a deeper move toward the lower end of the range at 1.2860–1.2868. Further downside targets include the 38.2% retracement of the March range at 1.2840, followed by the 200-day moving average at 1.2808.
USDJPY technicals
USDJPY has experienced choppy price action over the past week, with upside attempts stalling near the 38.2% retracement of the decline from the January high. The key resistance area includes the recent high at 151.25 and the 200-day moving average at 151.48. A break above these levels would be needed to shift the bias firmly back in favor of buyers.
Today’s trading has seen the pair settle into a neutral zone ahead of anticipated tariff-related headlines, with prices hovering near 150.06, just above a key technical area between 149.88 and 150.03—which includes the 100- and 200-hour moving averages. This zone serves as a short-term barometer: holding above it suggests a more bullish tilt, while a break back below would increase bearish pressure.
On the downside, the first target comes in at the swing area between 149.11 and 149.23, followed by another support zone between 148.56 and 148.72. A sustained move below that would open the door toward 148.11, a more significant support level.
