Rising yields across Treasury maturities suggest investors, traders and speculators have turned their attention from tariffs to taxes and the tenuous fiscal condition of the U.S. government.
Once again, stocks opened lower then straggled higher despite mixed earnings and guidance from major retailers. Late-session trading showed that, ultimately, the bond market is the boss right now.
The 30-year Treasury bond and the 2-year Treasury note both crossed psychologically significant thresholds early Wednesday – the long issue above 5%, the short above 4% – auguring another gap-down for equities.
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The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note, meanwhile, got as high as 4.549% in the pre-market from 4.481% on Tuesday.
At 1 am Eastern Standard Time today, the House Rules Committee opened debate on President Donald Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill Act – legislation that could add an estimated $3.3 trillion to the federal deficit over the next 10 years.
Moody’s cut its rating on U.S. government debt from Aaa to Aa1 last Friday, noting that it didn’t expect Congress to pass legislation with meaningful spending or deficit reduction.
For every $7 the U.S. spends, almost $1 now goes toward interest costs – more than the defense budget.
President Trump has said he wants to sign his tax bill on July 4.
As Louis Navellier of Navellier & Associates put it, “Higher interest rates are becoming a concern.”
They’re “moving in the wrong direction despite the clear current trend of low inflation along with low unemployment,” Navellier observes. “Further movement higher on interest rates will likely be problematic.”
By the closing bell, the blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 1.9% to 41,860, the broad-based S&P 500 Index had fallen 1.6% to 5,844, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite was off 1.4% to 18,872.
Big-box retailers report
Target (TGT) missed FactSet-compiled consensus estimates for its fiscal 2025 first-quarter revenue and earnings and also offered disappointing full-year guidance as the retail stock dropped 5.2% Wednesday.
Revenue declined 2.8% year over year to $23.8 billion vs a $24.2 billion forecast, while earnings of $1.30 per share missed an estimate of $1.61.
Management now says EPS for the full fiscal year will be “approximately $7.00 to $9.00,” down from a prior range of $8.80 to $9.90 and below a Wall Street midpoint of $8.34, on “a low-single-digit decline in sales.”
During Target’s conference call, Chief Financial Officer Jim Lee cited the impact of tariffs and softer consumer spending for the guidance revision.
“We’re not satisfied with current performance and know we have opportunities to deliver faster progress on our roadmap for growth,” said CEO Brian Cornell in a statement announcing Target’s results.
Cornell noted that management has established a “multi-year acceleration office” as well as several leadership changes “intended to build more speed and agility” into Target’s operations.
Lowe’s (LOW), meanwhile, reported EPS of $2.92 on revenue of $20.9 billion vs Wall Street estimates of $2.88 and $20.9 billion.
CEO Marvin Ellison noted near-term uncertainty and housing market headwinds” in a statement, but management of the consumer discretionary stock reiterated guidance for 2025.
Lowe’s expects full-year EPS of $12.15 to $12.40 a share and same-store sales growth of 0% to 1% vs Wall Street estimates of $12.21 and 0.5%.
LOW stock was down 1.8%.
GOOGL gets an AI bounce
Alphabet (GOOGL) stock was down 1.5% Tuesday, the day of its Google I/O development conference, but climbed 2.8% Wednesday after Wall Street analysts had time to digest new artificial intelligence features.
CEO Sundar Pichai introduced an “AI Mode” chatbot for Google’s search engine that became available to U.S. users today. Pichai also teased Google Beam, a “new AI-first video communications platform.”
Other new features include Veo 3, Google’s take on the next generation of AI video generation. And management rolled out an “AI Ultra” subscription plan with the “highest usage limits” billed at $249.99 per month.
“We believe these enhancements will resonate with users and attract advertisers through higher quality leads and improved monetization potential,” wrote CFRA Research analyst Angelo Zino in a Wednesday note.
KeyBanc analyst Justin Patterson said Google I/O “reoriented investors back to first principles, i.e., AI success requires a combination of engineering, infrastructure, and distribution,” emphasizing that “Alphabet is well positioned across these areas.”
UNH anchors the Dow again
UnitedHealth Group (UNH) was the worst-performing Dow Jones stock once more Wednesday, falling 5.8% on a report the health care company paid nursing homes to reduce hospital transfers.
According to The Guardian, UnitedHealth distributed secret bonuses “to help slash hospital transfers for ailing residents” as “part of a series of cost-cutting tactics that has saved the company millions, but at times risked residents’ health.”
UNH stock has lost 36.2% so far in 2025 and is down 52% from its November 11 52-week high of $630.73. CEO Andrew Witty abruptly resigned on May 13, catalyzing a 17.8% decline for UNH.
On May 15, UNH was down 11% after The Wall Street Journal reported the Department of Justice is investigating fraud in the company’s Medicare Advantage business.
