tradeCompass Summary for June 23, 2025
Bullish above: 5,991
Bearish below: 5,982
Current price at the time of this analysis: ~6,000
Directional bias: Bullish until proven otherwise
Partial profit targets (Bullish): 6,008, 6,019, 6,024, 6,032.5, 6,056, 6,063, 6,100
Partial profit targets (Bearish): 5,974, 5,957, 5,935
Today’s S&P 500 Market Context and Directional Bias After U.S.-Iran Escalation
After a tense geopolitical weekend marked by U.S. strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, futures markets opened with a sharp downside gap. However, instead of a continued drop, S&P 500 E-mini Futures (ES) staged a surprisingly strong recovery. Within the low-volume early hours of Sunday night (U.S. time), ES surged nearly 49 points from the session low of 5,959 to a high of 6,007.75, closing above the critical 6,000 round number.
This recovery suggests the market may be pricing in a more measured Iranian response, possibly even anticipating diplomatic overtures rather than all-out escalation. Of course, that is still a wild card.
At the time of writing, ES is hovering slightly above 6,000 and, more importantly for our methodology, above today’s developing VWAP at 5,991, which we define as the bullish threshold in today’s tradeCompass.
As long as price remains above that level and reacts positively to pullbacks, the trade bias is bullish. That said, we also define a bearish threshold at 5,982—a critical volume-based level from June 19’s POC—to prepare for downside scenarios.
Bullish Trade Plan for S&P 500 Futures Today: Key Levels and Entry Strategy
Traders who wish to go long can either enter slightly above 6,000 or wait for a pullback to 5,997.25, which is near both today’s VAH and Thursday’s VWAP—a high-likelihood re-entry zone for continuation setups.
For clarity and risk control, here are the tradeCompass bullish partial profit targets for today:
6,008
Near Friday’s value area low (VAL) and Thursday’s value area high (VAH). A common zone for intraday scalpers and automated liquidity-taking algorithms.
6,019
Correlates with a high-volume node (HVN) from Friday. A sticky zone likely to attract short-term activity.
6,024
Just beneath the point of control (POC) from Friday, a powerful volume-based magnet.
6,032.5
Above Friday’s VAH. This is a mid-distance target that may attract profit takers before the market pauses or consolidates.
6,056 and 6,063
Medium-term targets aligned with the POC and VAH of June 18. These offer opportunity for swing traders or “runner” portions of intraday positions.
6,100 (optional runner)
The round number and potential weekly magnet. If the market fully digests the geopolitical shock and resumes risk-on momentum, this becomes the high-probability gravitational level.
Trade Management Tip: For those trading one E-mini contract, consider converting it to 10 micros to allow more flexible partial profit-taking. CFD traders can achieve similar segmentation by calculating proportionate fractional exits.
Bearish Trade Plan for S&P 500 Futures Today: Downside Targets for Short Traders
While current market structure favors bulls, we must prepare for both outcomes. The bearish threshold is 5,982, the point of control from June 19, which will serve as a structural break if price convincingly trades below it.
Once that threshold is crossed to the downside with confirmation (e.g., 15-min close below, or strong negative delta momentum), the following bearish partial profit targets are relevant:
5,974
Just above Thursday’s value area low (VAL). A quick-hit target ideal for scalpers or as a first scale-out for short positions.
5,957
A critical POC from early June. This level may bring in buyers, so locking in profits ahead is prudent.
5,935
This is the value area low from June 2—a monthly-level support. If ES trades this low, it reflects a significant shift in sentiment and opens the door for deeper correction.
Reminder: We don’t choose targets based on wishful reward-to-risk ratios. We choose them based on where the map says price is likely to react. If price gets there, we’re prepared. If it reverses early, we’ve already taken gains off the table.
Explaining the Key Technical Concepts in Today’s S&P 500 Analysis
🔹 What Is VWAP and Why Does It Matter?
VWAP (Volume-Weighted Average Price) represents the average price at which an asset has traded throughout the day, weighted by volume. Institutional traders frequently use VWAP as a benchmark:
-
Price above VWAP indicates buyer control.
-
Price below VWAP shows seller control.
But beyond its calculation, reaction to VWAP matters more. A price bouncing cleanly off VWAP implies strong sentiment at that level.
🔹 What Is the Point of Control (POC)?
The POC is the price level where the highest volume occurred during a session. Think of it as the “fairest” price—the one most agreed upon.
-
When price trades around the POC, expect heavy congestion and liquidity.
-
When price breaks away from the POC with strength, that often signals a new directional move.
🔹 What Is the Value Area, VAH, and VAL?
The Value Area represents the price range where 70% of a session’s volume traded.
When price leaves or enters the value area, momentum often accelerates. These are not magic levels—they are where money has shown interest. Watching how price reacts here can give traders a real-time read on market conviction.
tradeCompass Strategy: Principles Behind Today’s S&P 500 Forecast
sp500 tradecompass today after the big Iran weekend
tradeCompass is a decision-support framework, not a rigid trade signal. It helps traders and investors structure their day based on volume-derived key levels and clear bullish/bearish thresholds.
Key tradeCompass principles include:
-
One trade per direction per compass.
If you went long and hit targets or got stopped, you don’t re-enter long today. Same for shorts. -
Take partial profits at logical levels.
Pros don’t hold for the moon—they take profits into liquidity. Letting a runner trail is smart, but not relying on one giant move is smarter. -
Protect your capital after progress.
After your second partial profit, move your stop to entry. Let your winners breathe, but never turn them into losers. -
Stop-loss placement is contextual.
While tradeCompass doesn’t dictate your stop, you must never place a stop beyond the opposite threshold. That’s the line where your trade logic breaks. -
Confirmation styles vary.
Some traders enter on the first touch of a level. Others wait for confirmation, such as a 15-minute close or clear delta shift. Adjust to your comfort level.
Benefits of Today’s tradeCompass for Traders Watching the S&P 500 After the U.S.-Iran Crisis
Whether you’re an active trader seeking directional setups or an investor trying to read market sentiment, today’s tradeCompass on the S&P 500 provides several advantages:
-
Cuts through news-driven emotion.
Instead of reacting to headlines, follow how price interacts with real levels of liquidity and participation. -
Provides a structured map.
Know where you are and where you might be going. Whether price bounces, breaks, or consolidates—tradeCompass gives you waypoints. -
Helps manage risk and psychology.
Partial profit-taking, stop placement guidance, and scenario planning help you stay disciplined. -
Keeps you adaptable.
Bullish bias doesn’t mean stubborn bullishness. If price crosses below the bearish threshold with confirmation, you flip the map.
Even if you don’t place a trade today, monitoring how price reacts around these defined levels teaches you how smart money behaves.
Final Notes: Where to Find More Trade Ideas and What’s Coming Next
This analysis is part of the broader tradeCompass methodology developed to help traders interpret price action using professional-grade tools like volume profile, VWAP, liquidity zones, and order flow tendencies. It is not financial advice. Trade at your own risk.
For more live market guidance and educational updates, visit ForexLive.com.
And remember:
ForexLive is transitioning into InvestingLive.com later this summer, bringing more tools, in-depth analysis, and decision support for retail and institutional traders alike.
Be ready. Stay informed. See you on the next tradeCompass.
