Fundamental
Overview
The S&P 500 continues
to be supported given the lack of bearish drivers. We haven’t got any
meaningful catalyst since the NFP report other than Trump’s tariff letters that
were largely ignored by the market given that everyone expects them to be just
the usual negotiating tactic.
Next week, we have the US
CPI report and that could trigger some big moves in the market. To keep the
trend going, we would likely need soft inflation figures as a hot report might
trigger a deeper pullback given the positioning.
In the bigger picture
though, given that the Fed’s reaction function remains to either wait more or
cut, the market should eventually get back to its upward trend.
S&P 500
Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe
S&P 500 Daily
On the daily chart, we can
see that the S&P 500 is consolidating around the all-time highs after a
very strong rally. From a risk management perspective, the buyers will have a
better risk to reward setup around the previous all-time high at 6,160-ish
level to position for the continuation of the uptrend. The sellers, on the
other hand, will want to see the price breaking lower to pile in for a drop
into the 6,000 level next.
S&P 500 Technical
Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe
S&P 500 4 hour
On the 4 hour chart, we can
see that we have an upward trendline defining the uptrend. If we were to
get a pullback all the way into the trendline, we can expect the dip-buyers to
lean on it to position for a rally into new all-time highs with a better risk
to reward setup. The sellers, on the other hand, will look for a break lower to
increase the bearish bets into the 5,800 level next.
S&P 500 Technical
Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe
S&P 500 1 hour
On the 1 hour chart, we can
see that we have a minor resistance around the 6,315 level. The sellers will
likely continue to step in around the resistance with a defined risk above it
to keep targeting a pullback into the 6,160 level. The buyers, on the other
hand, will look for a break higher to increase the bullish bets into new
all-time highs.
There’s also a minor upward
trendline that can offer support for the dip-buyers, while the sellers will
likely increase the bearish bets into new lows on a breakout. The red lines
define the average daily range for today.
Upcoming
Catalysts
Today we get the latest US Jobless Claims
figures.
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