S&P 500 Analysis for Today with tradeCompass

Current Price at the Time of this Analysis: 5,450

Last Updated: April 10, 2025

After a historic 9.5% rally — the biggest one-day gain since October 28, 2008 — volatility remains extremely elevated. But today, the market is expected to cool and partially retrace from its euphoric high.

S&P 500 E-mini Futures (ES) are currently trading at 5,450, but the key zone to watch is 5,400, a round number and yesterday’s Point of Control (POC). This is where today’s TradeCompass framework activates.

How to Use Today’s TradeCompass

• Do not act until price reaches 5,400.

• Once it does, wait for 15–30 minutes of price action to determine if it sustains above or below.

• Based on that behavior, activate the bullish or bearish plan outlined below.

Bullish Bias (Above 5,400 – Sustained)

If the price tests and holds above 5,400, here are the bullish profit-taking levels:

1. 5,413 – Yesterday’s 1st Upper VWAP Deviation

2. 5,450 – Current price zone, also a High Volume Node (HVN)

3. 5,468 – Just below a zone of high relative liquidity

4. 5,490 – Today’s VWAP

5. 5,510 – Just under today’s VWAP high

6. 5,621 – Strong junction level, may act as a final target for the day

7. 5,655 – Major level from April 2

8. 5,689 – Same April 2 structure

9. 5,723 – Key price from the April 2 Tariff Rally

10. 5,804 – For long-term swing traders; just above 5,800 round number and near March 26 Value Area High

Bearish Bias (Below 5,400 – Sustained)

If price touches and fails to hold above 5,400, and instead sustains below it, here are the bearish junctions for downside plays:

1. 5,352 – Just above the semi-round number 5,350 and April 8’s 2nd Upper VWAP Deviation

2. 5,311 – Above the April 4 VWAP 1st Upper Deviation and a High Volume Node from April 8

3. 5,267 – Just above the April 4 Value Area High

4. 5,230 – Close to the April 4 VWAP and the highest VWAP point on April 8

5. 5,205 – Within the important 5,190–5,215 pivot zone, also near April 9 VWAP

   • Note: This zone is wide, but not unusually large in context — due to high volatility, it’s a valid contraction zone and may act as a powerful support/reversal area. Expect increased participation here.

6. 5,112 – Above the April 4 POC

7. 5,032 – Just above the Value Area Low of April 9

This sequence offers a nearly 370-point range from the 5,400 trigger, making it ideal for scaling out, not aiming for a single exit.

Pro Tip: How to Trade It Like a Pro

• Map > Guesswork: Think of this TradeCompass as your map, not a prediction. These levels are decision junctions where institutions step in — much more actionable than lagging indicators.

• One Direction at a Time:
  
  Don’t chase both sides simultaneously. Wait for a trigger at 5,400 and follow through only after confirmation.

• Scale Out Smart:
  
  Use the targets to exit partially, tighten stops after hitting early targets, and let runners ride only when you’re already green on the trade.

• Volatility = Risk & Opportunity:
  
  This is not a “normal” day. Be tactical, adjust sizing, and respect how wide the ranges have become.

tradeCompass is a decision support tool for traders:

This is a decision-support tool — not financial advice. Always do your own due diligence and trade at your own risk.

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