The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) left its cash rate unchanged at 4.10% in its April 2025 policy decision, as widely expected. The central bank statement maintained a cautious tone, noting that underlying inflation is moderating but emphasizing that returning inflation to target remains its top priority. Policymakers reiterated that monetary policy remains restrictive and that confidence is needed to ensure inflation continues on its downward path. The RBA also pointed to ongoing global and geopolitical uncertainties, adding that risks to the inflation outlook remain two-sided. While the language of the statement was largely unchanged from February, the RBA signaled it will continue to rely on incoming data and evolving risk assessments to guide future decisions. Market reaction was muted, with AUDUSD trading at 0.6256—virtually flat after a brief spike to 0.6264 following the announcement.
RBA Governor Michele Bullock reiterated the statement saying the central back is struck a cautious tone, reaffirming that monetary policy remains restrictive to return inflation to target. While inflation is gradually aligning with forecasts, she said full confidence is not yet warranted and it’s prudent to wait for more data. No rate cuts were discussed, though downside risks—particularly from global factors and U.S. tariffs—were acknowledged. The labour market remains tight, but Bullock declined to specify an unemployment threshold for easing. She emphasized that no decision has been made for May, the RBA is not endorsing market rate cut paths, and global uncertainty continues to weigh on the outlook.
Technically, the AUDUSD is modestly higher but showing choppy price action after pushing up ahead of the RBA rate decision. The rally stalled near the top of a key swing area between 0.6254 and 0.6268—a zone that previously acted as support in recent weeks (see red circles 11–14). Yesterday’s drop below that area turnedthe area into resistance (a ceiling), keeping sellers in control for now. To shift the bias higher, the pair would need to break and hold above this former floor.
Looking back at last week, early gains reached the 100-day moving average (top blue line), but later highs were capped by the converging 100- and 200-bar moving averages on the 4-hour chart, now near 0.6303–0.6309. That confluence remains a key upside hurdle. On the downside, yesterday’s low at 0.6218 is just above the 61.8% retracement of the February rally at 0.62097—a level to watch if selling resumes.
For now. watching the ceiling at 0.6268 for a short-term bias level.
