- It’s been months since Bitcoin topped $100,000.
- Most bettors see it breaking out by the end of May.
- There’s a lot of indecision in the market.
Which way will Bitcoin go?
Some Polymarket bettors have put 65% odds that Bitcoin will rise to $100,000 by May 30.
But another set of bettors on the platform have wagered the top crypto will drop to $90,000 by the end of the month.
Zooming out, Polymarket punters have put 77% odds that Bitcoin’s price will be higher by June 30 than when it was on April 1, when it traded for about $83,000.
In other words, investors are torn.
“The market is at an important decision point,” Bitcoin analyst James Check said in his newsletter Checkonchain on Tuesday. If the market can rally above $96,000, “the bulls are in charge.”
But if the price drops below $85,000 — there’s a 31% chance according to Polymarket punters — “the bears are firmly in control.”
As for Check, he leans in favour of a price rally.
“I would [put] the odds around a 70:30 bull:bear.”
Macro vacillation
Why such hesitation? Uncertainty.
Capital markets are still digesting the ongoing tariff war between the US and China. Donald Trump’s first 100 days in office have meant chaos for the crypto industry.
And even though Bitcoin has managed to weather the storm better than other risk-on assets, like equities, the indecision suggests investors aren’t convinced in either direction.
Bitcoin’s blockchain activity also paints a prudent picture.
“The Bitcoin blockchain is very quiet… too quiet,” Check wrote. When looking at network activity, there’s only a handful of transactions waiting to be mined, “which doesn’t scream of high demand.”
To top it off, options traders, who bet on where prices might go without buying the actual Bitcoin, aren’t expecting much excitement either.
“Implied volatility on Bitcoin remains subdued, currently trading at a multi-week low,” Paul Howard, senior director at $3 billion crypto market maker Wincent, told DL News.
“Over the past 18 months, such low levels of volatility have rarely persisted for more than two weeks, signaling a notable calm in the market.”
Institutional interest
To be sure, big name investors remain bullish.
That includes the world’s largest asset manager, BlackRock. The firm manages upwards of $12 trillion.
BlackRock’s executives have been on the offensive in promoting Bitcoin.
When the asset began defying the broader equity markets and a plunging US dollar just a few weeks ago, the word “decoupling” has become the word on Wall Street.
“If you zoom out, you tend to see the longer term fundamental thesis of Bitcoin really drives it to behave differently to traditional assets,” Jay Jacobs, BlackRock’s US head of equity ETFs, said on CNBC’s Squawk Box Asia on April 25.
And while some say that the Trump-induced slump will disfavour cryptocurrencies, Jacobs put a pin in the idea.
“We see geopolitical fragmentation as a ‘megaforce’ that is driving the world forward,” he said.
“Directly related to that geopolitical fragmentation is the rise of Bitcoin as people see more destabilisation and the need for alternative assets.”
Pedro Solimano is a markets correspondent based in Buenos Aires. Got a tip? Email him at [email protected].
