NVDA Earnings Analysis with tradeCompass

TradeCompass Summary for Today

Bearish below: $145.50

Bullish only on reclaim: $122.25 (after breakdown)

Primary Bias: Sit out the initial volatility, then fade or follow confirmation

Partial Targets (Bearish): $142.65, $139.21, $130.55, $124.57

Partial Targets (Bullish): $125.88, $127.31, $138.86, $145.15

NVDA Earnings Context & tradeCompass Strategic Bias

NVIDIA (NVDA) is trading just under $135 in the pre-market session, about 2.8% higher than Friday’s close. Following its earnings report, we chose not to participate during the announcement itself due to the high volatility risk. Instead, our plan is to wait and fade exaggerated moves or position after confirmation.

The options market priced in a 7.8% expected move, placing the potential range near $145.50 on the upside and $122.25 on the downside. These levels now define our bearish and bullish thresholds, respectively, and serve as tactical zones where large institutional players may react.

Important note: the expected move signals volatility, not direction. The tradeCompass approach is to wait for price to reveal intention through reaction at these thresholds, then act accordingly.

NVDA Earnings Bearish Setup: Fade Scenario if $145.50 is Rejected

If price crosses above $145.50 but fails to hold and drops back below, it activates our bearish scenario. This move would suggest exhaustion and potential for mean reversion or profit-taking. The following are our partial profit levels for shorts:

• $142.65 — Just above the Jan 24th Point of Control. A logical first target for fade entries.

• $139.21 — A significant high-volume node and resistance shelf from Feb 21st.

• $130.55 — Today’s Value Area Low (VAL). A major magnet for intraday reversion.

• $124.57 — A swing-level target, just above the options-derived expected move to the downside.

This setup is not a blind short. We wait for confirmation: price must cross up, fail, and reverse back below $145.50. That’s when tradeCompass suggests shorting.

NVDA Earnings Bullish Scenario: Only Valid After Reclaim of $122.25

We will be bullish only if price first breaks below $122.25, hits stops between $120–$122, and then crosses back up through $122.25 with strength. A drop without reclaim is not a buying opportunity—it could continue to $118.35 or even $115.90.

Upon bullish confirmation (reclaim of $122.25 from below), here’s the tradeCompass long plan:

• $125.88 — First partial profit. Minor resistance zone and possible reaction level.

• $127.31 — Second target. If reached, we move the stop-loss to entry per tradeCompass methodology.

• $138.86 — Swing target from Feb 24th volume profile key level. Runner logic applies here.

• $145.15 — Fourth partial profit, near the top of range and bearish threshold, perfect zone for final scale-out on swing moves.

We also suggest a long-term runner position for those with investing timelines. With favorable conditions, NVDA could trend toward $200+ over the next year or two.

Key Insight: Sit Out NVDA Earnings and Patience Before the Hunt

This earnings setup highlights how tradeCompass favors discipline over reaction. We don’t chase moves into volatility—we let others take the bait, then wait for exhaustion or structure before joining.

Today’s plan supports:

• Day traders: With clear partial profit levels and stop management.

• Swing traders: Fading earnings extremes or reclaim setups.

• Long-term investors: Potential upside runners post-earnings repricing.

Educational Segment: Why Expected Move ≠ Directional Bias

The options market’s expected move reflects the magnitude of movement traders anticipate, not the direction. Smart traders interpret the move as a volatility boundary — when price exceeds it, mean reversion or new momentum often follows, depending on confirmation.

This is why we track rejections, retests, and failure patterns at the upper and lower bounds before entering trades.

tradeCompass Reminders for Today

• One trade per direction: Don’t flip sides unless thresholds break and reset.

• Confirm entries: Let price cross and retest a key level before committing.

• Risk control: Stops should align with the opposite side of the trade idea.

• Manage risk with partial profits: This protects capital and locks in gains step by step.

But NVDA Earnings is Also Affected by the Market, Right?

For sure, no earnings lives in isolation. But what is the status of the general market, right now, anyway?

Well… From a technical analysis perspective…

Keep in mind, that so far, the S&P 500 futures market is bullish, not bearish, and this will only change if the price crosses down that orange channel, activating it as a bear flag.

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NVDA Earnings on 28 May 2025: Final Note & Risk Disclaimer

This NVIDIA earnings guide via tradeCompass is designed as a decision-support tool. It is not financial advice. Markets are volatile, especially post-earnings. Use the key levels and methodology to plan rational entries, exits, and risk management.

Trade NVDA stock and its earnings at your own risk. Earnings events are inherently volatile and risky for traders.