Bitcoin has bounced back this week alongside tech stocks after a leak revealed serious establishment fears of crypto “contagion.”
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The bitcoin price has surged toward $100,000 per bitcoin as one closely-watched crypto investor calls the market bottom, telling people to “buy everything” ahead of a Federal Reserve flip.
Now, as Binance’s chief executive confirms wild speculation that could blow up the bitcoin price, “major” U.S. dollar warnings are priming bitcoin for a “geopolitical fragmentation megaforce” shock.
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Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell has grappling with the end of a “higher for longer” U.S. dollar … More
“The preconditions are now in place for the beginning of a major dollar downtrend,” Deutsche Bank analysts George Saravelos and Tim Baker wrote seen by MarketWatch in a note, pointing to a huge shift in U.S. trade policy and a global reassessment of U.S. geopolitical leadership and predicting the end of a “higher for longer” dollar.
The U.S. dollar has been supported in recent months by Fed chair Jerome Powell’s relatively hawkish approach to interest rates in the face of inflation fears, though U.S. president Donald Trump has piled pressure on Powell to cut rates.
“Given the historical developments of the last few months our EUR/USD forecasts now anticipate the dollar entering a long-winded downcycle,” the Deutsche Bank analysts wrote, adding that, “in a world of extreme uncertainty and rapidly shifting policy norms, the risk of market dislocations and regime breaks remains high.”
The warning echos the concerns of Goldman Sachs’ head of FX who told Bloomberg this week that the U.S. dollar’s weakness is “here to stay,” as the world adjusts to the new tariff-based international trade order established by Trump.
Meanwhile, Jay Jacobs, the head of thematics and active exchange-traded funds (ETFs) at the world’s largest asset manager BlackRock, has predicted “geopolitical fragmentation” will be a “megaforce that drives the world forward over the next several decades.”
“Directly related to that geopolitical fragmentation is the rise of bitcoin as people see more destabilisation and the need for alternative assets,” Jacobs said during an interview with CNBC and adding that the bitcoin price is “decoupling” from technology stocks.
“Fundamentally, [bitcoin] should behave like an uncorrelated asset,” Jacobs said. “The more we see time play out in this uncertain environment, the more we will see this dispersion.”
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The bitcoin price has surged this week as traders bet on a recovery of so-called risk assets and … More
BlackRock, which manages over $10 trillion globally on behalf of clients, led the campaign to bring a fully-fledged spot bitcoin ETF to the U.S., winning approval for its IBIT and a fleet of other spot bitcoin ETFs in January last year.
In July, BlackRock’s chief executive Larry Fink said he had been “wrong” about bitcoin when he’d previously dismissed it as “an index of money laundering,” admitting bitcoin is “digital gold” and a “legitimate” financial instrument.
The arrival of a fleet of spot bitcoin ETFs on Wall Street was the first step in what Fink branded a digital “revolution” when he revealed his crypto ambitions for BlackRock in 2023—which includes a radical new, blockchain-based alternative to the U.S. dollar.
