A view from the United States Department of the Treasury building in Washington DC, United States on Dec. 30, 2024.
Celal Gunes | Anadolu | Getty Images
My top 10 things to watch Monday, May 19
1. Bonds are crushing stocks this morning, with the 30-year Treasury yield north of 5% and the 10-year Treasury yield topping 4.5%, in response to Moody’s downgrading its rating on U.S. sovereign debt. The S&P 500 is on track to open lower by about 1%.
2. The S&P 500 fell 6.66% in a single session in August 2011 when Standard & Poor’s cut its rating on U.S. debt to AA+ from AAA. We lost 1.38% the day after Fitch’s downgrade in August 2023. Now it is Moody’s turn to take away its highest-possible rating on U.S. debt.
3. It’s a raid on dollar-denominated assets again, like what we saw last month in the wake of President Donald Trump’s “reciprocal” tariff announcement. The alternatives are too positive. Germany and Spain’s stock markets have soared this year, and the money doesn’t stop coming their way.
4. Trump over the weekend lashed out at Walmart after the retailer said tariff-related price hikes were coming. Trump said Walmart should “eat the tariffs.” I think the administration is fighting the wrong retail war.
5. Club name Nvidia announced a new networking equipment called NVLink Fusion at Taiwan’s big electronics tradeshow Computex. The gist is that it will enable Nvidia’s leading AI chips to connect with other companies’ data-center processors, giving it access to more markets that were previously closed.
6. JPMorgan downgraded Netflix to a neutral hold rating from overweight. The analysts said the stock has run too much too soon, making the risk/reward more balanced. They still like Netflix long-term, though.
7. Reddit shares are tumbling more than 6% this morning after a downgrade from Wells Fargo, which argued that user disruptions look more permanent. The firm went to a hold-equivalent rating from overweight and slashed its price target to $115 a share from $168.
8. Evercore ISI added Club name Home Depot to its “tactical outperform list,” while rival Lowe’s went on its “tactical underperform list.” Not sure if these short-term calls matter, though, especially ahead of earnings this week. Home Depot reports tomorrow. Lowe’s is on Wednesday.
9. Another Club stock reporting this week is TJX Companies, with numbers due out before the bell Wednesday. JPMorgan upped its price target on TJX to $130 a share from $127 and kept its overweight buy rating on the name. A bit of late call, though, with the stock already at $133.
10. TD Cowen downgraded UnitedHealth Group to hold from buy after a difficult stretch for the company and the stock price. But in a show of confidence, there’s been a lot of insider buying among executives. Stephen Hemsley, back again as CEO, bought $25 million worth of stock while CFO John Rex purchased $5 million.
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